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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #751,481
  • Jun 14, 2023 4:15am Jun 14, 2023 4:15am
Quoting JackintheBox
{quote} I have stats to that. for example from dailyfx.com, ->retailers short over 63%, means pros hunt for their stops... cheers
Or pros go with the trend, and retailers want to pick tops. Correlation does not imply causation.
  • #751,482
  • Jun 14, 2023 4:16am Jun 14, 2023 4:16am
Quoting Elysion
My system shows good entries but my patience is the one that's killing me by entering too early. I need psychological help
session entries help.

Tokyo open, London open, NY open helps.
Intraday only.
  • #751,483
  • Jun 14, 2023 4:17am Jun 14, 2023 4:17am
...the following statement is part empirically based (from multi-year/multi t/f evidence,) and part anecdotally/observationally based during the same period;

In a strong multi-time frame trend/move, (let's say an up-move for the sake of example,) the following is likely to happen, in decreasing order of probability

1. Price breaks through resistance/small pullback on 1st attempt, then breaks thru.
2. Price pulls back at resistance for a 'deeper' pullback, bulls reload, and then resistance breaks on a subsequent attempt.
3. Resistance holds....trend reverses to a new opposite trend, or ranging.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #751,484
  • Jun 14, 2023 4:18am Jun 14, 2023 4:18am
Quoting voeltoez
sold 1.2635 sl 1.2665 m5 need to reversal now..just overbought tp 1.2600
Ditto, 4 sells at 12633, 634, 635, 636 will add some more if we get over 640 --- DO NOT FOLLOW ME IF I GET MY ASS HANDED TO ME ITS MY ASS NOT YOURS
  • #751,485
  • Jun 14, 2023 4:20am Jun 14, 2023 4:20am
Quoting Scotteyy
{quote} Or pros go with the trend, and retailers want to pick tops. Correlation does not imply causation.
isnt that the same in a way what I said? The difference to retailers is that the pros MAKE the trend by volume. It is a bit like poker. You suck the retailer in a position where they should think I can win now big and risk a lot. Pros see that and use it. It's like waiting for the next victim putting up traps all day long.
And when the retailer got scalped they clean up afterwards their positions. That's at least my observation. Cheers
  • #751,486
  • Jun 14, 2023 4:21am Jun 14, 2023 4:21am
The target is written on the wall some time this week
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Intraday only.
  • #751,487
  • Jun 14, 2023 4:22am Jun 14, 2023 4:22am
Quoting T721
{quote} Ditto, 4 sells at 12633, 634, 635, 636 will add some more if we get over 640 --- DO NOT FOLLOW ME IF I GET MY ASS HANDED TO ME ITS MY ASS NOT YOURS
LOL
  • #751,488
  • Jun 14, 2023 4:23am Jun 14, 2023 4:23am
Quoting JackintheBox
{quote} isnt that the same in a way what I said? The difference to retailers is that the pros MAKE the trend by volume. It is a bit like poker. You suck the retailer in a position where they should think I can win now big and risk a lot. Pros see that and use it. It's like waiting for the next victim putting up traps all day long. And when the retailer got scalped they clean up afterwards their positions. That's at least my observation. Cheers
Pro's dont care about your position though. That was my point. If the pro's make the volume then why not trade with them, instead of against them?
  • #751,489
  • Jun 14, 2023 4:25am Jun 14, 2023 4:25am
Quoting Elysion
My system shows good entries but my patience is the one that's killing me by entering too early. I need psychological help
you trade full margin?
  • #751,490
  • Jun 14, 2023 4:27am Jun 14, 2023 4:27am
The price is in an area where several resistances converge, 1.2642 monthly resistance, order block 1.2638 - 1.2688 and in this area also created price rejection candles. At the moment the price respects the zone until the news moves it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #751,491
  • Jun 14, 2023 4:28am Jun 14, 2023 4:28am
Quoting Scotteyy
{quote} Pro's dont care about your position though. That was my point. If the pro's make the volume then why not trade with them, instead of against them?
Exactly, if 60% of retail is short then what you do? Especially if the charts say so. Dont be an adventurer and take the arrow to the knee it gets really sore after awhile.
Was slipping off the edge but i held up.
  • #751,492
  • Jun 14, 2023 4:30am Jun 14, 2023 4:30am
Of course you can trade with them. The problem with that method is like in a snowball system: The last one who buys in a trend get the full amount of bullets. That means: You have to identify a trend early (of course if you trade on daily base you have much more time but if you want to earn money faster you have to know exactly when a trend changes). -Last days were a good example on intraday base what can happend to a trend follower when you enter too late or in a more profession way, in a retrace. Trend changed really crazy and without any stop. That's the negative side of trend trading. The positive side is you have the probability of continuation on your side, that'S true. But you have to know how to use it.
  • #751,493
  • Jun 14, 2023 4:31am Jun 14, 2023 4:31am
Quoting JustPipping
{quote} Exactly, if 60% of retail is short then what you do? Especially if the charts say so. Dont be an adventurer and take the arrow to the knee it gets really sore after awhile.
Yup, I lost so much money trading against the trend. There's only a couple of high probability scenarios that I will do so now and even that lost me money last week.
  • #751,494
  • Jun 14, 2023 4:33am Jun 14, 2023 4:33am
Quoting Scotteyy
{quote} Yup, I lost so much money trading against the trend. There's only a couple of high probability scenarios that I will do so now and even that lost me money last week.
so just buy when price is going up and sell when it goes down?
in wondering about yourself, you forgot what you came here to be part of
  • #751,495
  • Jun 14, 2023 4:34am Jun 14, 2023 4:34am
Quoting JackintheBox
Of course you can trade with them. The problem with that method is like in a snowball system: The last one who buys in a trend get the full amount of bullets. That means: You have to identify a trend early (of course if you trade on daily base you have much more time but if you want to earn money faster you have to know exactly when a trend changes). -Last days were a good example on intraday base what can happend to a trend follower when you enter too late or in a more profession way, in a retrace. Trend changed really crazy and without any stop....
You are so wrong and overthink way to much or your knowledge lacks. If you are a intraday trader like me, higher tf is king especially if you understand where liquidity is taken and likely will be taken next.
Was slipping off the edge but i held up.
  • #751,496
  • Jun 14, 2023 4:35am Jun 14, 2023 4:35am
Quoting knkie
{quote} so just buy when price is going up and sell when it goes down?
I do believe that tends to work pretty well actually, yes.
  • #751,497
  • Jun 14, 2023 4:39am Jun 14, 2023 4:39am
Quoting Scotteyy
Long 12610, SL 12600, TP 12690
SL moved to 12630.
  • #751,498
  • Jun 14, 2023 4:39am Jun 14, 2023 4:39am
Quoting knkie
{quote} so just buy when price is going up and sell when it goes down?
No having knowledge and experience of how the market moves. If you are on the monthly and weekly bullish and we had a pullback close to the last lower low on the daily why not search for intraday longs until the next daily high?
Was slipping off the edge but i held up.
  • #751,499
  • Jun 14, 2023 4:40am Jun 14, 2023 4:40am
Quoting JustPipping
{quote} You are so wrong and overthink way to much or your knowledge lacks. If you are a intraday trader like me, higher tf is king especially if you understand where liquidity is taken and likely will be taken next.
It depends on your position and moneymanagement. Reversals are more profitable than continuation trading but it takes longer and you have to take a lot of hits before it reverses. That's why you should not trade like that on 4hr or higer timeframes. It can take half a year before you get into profit than, that's true.
  • #751,500
  • Jun 14, 2023 4:42am Jun 14, 2023 4:42am
Quoting JustPipping
{quote} No having knowledge and experience of how the market moves. If you are on the monthly and weekly bullish and we had a pullback close to the last lower low on the daily why not search for intraday longs until the next daily high?
because i tend to make profit if i buy going up and sell going down
in wondering about yourself, you forgot what you came here to be part of
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