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Statistical Probability Trading With Price Action

  • #1
  • First Post: Apr 29, 2007 11:50pm Apr 29, 2007 11:50pm
Since January of 2006 the Gbp/Usd has moved between 170 and 179 pips 12 times counting last Friday. Two of the eleven times the day after such a move it moved 234 pips and 257 pips. The other nine days after such a move as past Friday it had a range of 72 to 159 pips with the average of the nine days being 104 pips. Of those nine days it only reached the mathematical R1 or S1 twice. It currently has a low of 1.9923 and the high of 1.9968 with a high low range of 45 pips. If it stays with in the 104 pip day after range it would reach 2.0027 on the top side and or 1.9864 on the bottom side. The first day of the week on the average has a below average trading day. The Gbp/Usd for 2007 has a daily average range of 122 pips compared to 128 pips the same time last year. For 2006 the Gbp/Usd ended up with a 134 pip daily range average.
  • #2
  • Apr 30, 2007 12:00am Apr 30, 2007 12:00am
R1 and S1 with statistical average low and high for the day.
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  • #3
  • Apr 30, 2007 12:07am Apr 30, 2007 12:07am
2006 Daily Range For Eur/Jpy was 93 pips
2006 Daily Range For Eur/Jpy for this time last year was 103 pips
2007 Daily Range For Eur/Jpy to date is 127 pips
2007 5 Day Daily Range For Eur/Jpy is 117 Pips
2007 10 Day Daily Range For Eur/Jpy is 116 pips
2007 20 Day Daily Range For Eur/Jpy is 104 pips
2007 55 Day Daily Range For Eur/Jpy is 133 pips
  • #4
  • Apr 30, 2007 8:00pm Apr 30, 2007 8:00pm
The last 346 trading days since Jan. 1 2006 the GbpUsd has retraced to with in 7 pips of the following fib levels after the days high and low are established. This retracement either happens the same day or within the next trading day.
23.6 fib 337 times or 97.4% of the time
38,2 fib 303 times or 87.6% of the time (it currently has retraced with in 7 pips of this level before the close of the day)
50.0 fib 269 times or 77.7% of the time
61.8 fib 225 times or 65% of the time.
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  • #5
  • Apr 30, 2007 8:06pm Apr 30, 2007 8:06pm
Support and resistance where price action stalled or failed to pentetrate.
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  • #6
  • Apr 30, 2007 8:15pm Apr 30, 2007 8:15pm
Quoting goodthings
Since January of 2006 the Gbp/Usd has moved between 170 and 179 pips 12 times counting last Friday. Two of the eleven times the day after such a move it moved 234 pips and 257 pips. The other nine days after such a move as past Friday it had a range of 72 to 159 pips with the average of the nine days being 104 pips. Of those nine days it only reached the mathematical R1 or S1 twice. It currently has a low of 1.9923 and the high of 1.9968 with a high low range of 45 pips. If it stays with in the 104 pip day after range it would reach 2.0027 on the top side and or 1.9864 on the bottom side. The first day of the week on the average has a below average trading day. The Gbp/Usd for 2007 has a daily average range of 122 pips compared to 128 pips the same time last year. For 2006 the Gbp/Usd ended up with a 134 pip daily range average.
Thank you for this info. What would be even more interesting is to determine (statistically also) the least average amount of pips moved in a particular direction before the move solidified into a large dive/surge in that direction. Or the average number of pips moved in a direction before a sizable correction. This is how good AI works.

Also, it is better in my opinion to study the NET amount of pips moved up OR down rather than in total, because total pipage oscillated up and down doesn't really tell you anything to use in an actual trade.

Great stuff, keep it coming!
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #7
  • Apr 30, 2007 8:29pm Apr 30, 2007 8:29pm
Good points have been working on that with gbp/usd but have not followed through completely on it. Have info scattered just need to put it together. My goal is to consistantly capture a portion of pips in a day with gbp/usd gbp/jpy eur/jpy and looking at other pairs that have some movement. Something that may cross with the Audy maybe eur/aud. I think the Audy is looking to go bearish they are having some extreme droughty (lack of rain)that will probably be effecting its currency.
  • #8
  • May 13, 2007 6:59am May 13, 2007 6:59am
The average range between the high and low for the following currencies between 6pm eastern and 10pm eastern for 2007 is (for some this would be the first 4hr candle is)

GbpUsd is 33 pips down from the 2006 average of 46 pips about a 38% decrease
EurJpy is 55 pips up from the 2006 average of 38 pips about a 50% increase
GbbJpy is 83 pips up from the 2006 average of 56 pips about a 50% increase
  • #9
  • May 13, 2007 8:15pm May 13, 2007 8:15pm
2006 Daily Range For GBP/USD was 134 pips
2006 Daily Range For GBP/USD for this time last year was 134 pips
2007 Daily Range For GBP/USD to date is 121 pips
2007 5 Day Daily Range For GBP/USD is 105Pips
2007 10 Day Daily Range For GBP/USD is 107 pips
2007 20 Day Daily Range For GBP/USD is 112 pips
2007 55 Day Daily Range For GBP/USD is 114 pips
  • #10
  • May 18, 2007 12:25am May 18, 2007 12:25am
Below are the ranges between the high and low of each 4 hour time period for the GbpUsd . All times are US eastern.

6pm-10pm 33 pips
10pm-2am 30 pips
2am-6am 69 pips
6am-10am 65 pips
10am-2pm 52 pips
2pm-6pm 27 pip

The 2007 daily range for the GbpUsd to date is 121 pips.
  • #11
  • May 18, 2007 1:25am May 18, 2007 1:25am
Below are the ranges between the high and low of each 4 hour time period for the EurJpy . All times are US eastern.

6pm-10pm 51 pips
10pm-2am 40 pips
2am-6am 55 pips
6am-10am 52 pips
10am-2pm 46 pips
2pm-6pm 30 pip
  • #12
  • May 18, 2007 4:15pm May 18, 2007 4:15pm
Mondays retracement.

The last 360 trading days since Jan. 1 2006 the GbpUsd has retraced to with in 7 pips of the following fib levels after the days high and low are established. This retracement either happens the same day or within the next trading day.
23.6 fib 97.8% of the trading days.
38,2 fib 87.5% of the trading days.
50.0 fib 77.5% of the time trading days.
61.8 fib 65.3% of the trading days.
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  • #13
  • May 18, 2007 4:24pm May 18, 2007 4:24pm
Tuesday the Gbp Usd retraced to the 61.8 fib level and beyond by Wednesday the next day.

The last 360 trading days since Jan. 1 2006 the GbpUsd has retraced to with in 7 pips of the following fib levels after the days high and low are established. This retracement either happens the same day or within the next trading day.
23.6 fib 97.8% of the trading days.
38,2 fib 87.5% of the trading days.
50.0 fib 77.5% of the time trading days.
61.8 fib 65.3% of the trading days.
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  • #14
  • May 18, 2007 6:03pm May 18, 2007 6:03pm
The last 360 trading days since Jan. 1 2006 the GbpUsd has retraced to with in 7 pips of the following fib levels after the days high and low are established. This retracement either happens the same day or within the next trading day.
23.6 fib 97.8% of the trading days.
38,2 fib 87.5% of the trading days.
50.0 fib 77.5% of the time trading days.
61.8 fib 65.3% of the trading days.

This is for Wendesday of this week
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  • #15
  • May 18, 2007 6:21pm May 18, 2007 6:21pm
I Just wanted to say thanks as well for the hard work, this a gold mine of info.
  • #16
  • May 18, 2007 6:56pm May 18, 2007 6:56pm
Quoting goodthings
The last 360 trading days since Jan. 1 2006 the GbpUsd has retraced to with in 7 pips of the following fib levels after the days high and low are established. This retracement either happens the same day or within the next trading day.
23.6 fib 97.8% of the trading days.
38,2 fib 87.5% of the trading days.
50.0 fib 77.5% of the time trading days.
61.8 fib 65.3% of the trading days.

This is for Wendesday of this week
Thanks for the info GoodThings. Did you analyse the data yourself for this? Lot of home work involved drawing all the fib lines.
  • #17
  • May 18, 2007 6:57pm May 18, 2007 6:57pm
Yes this IS good stuff !!

Has already made me change my perspective.

Thank you.

Lou
  • #18
  • May 18, 2007 7:22pm May 18, 2007 7:22pm
Daily range for GbpUsd this time last year was 138 pips it ended the year averaging 134 pips for the daily range. Currently the daily range for 2007 is 119 pips.

Past Week Daily Range


2007 5 Daily Daily Range For GBP/USD is 105Pips
2007 10 Day Daily Range For GBP/USD is 107 pips
2007 20 Day Daily Range For GBP/USD is 112 pips
2007 55 Day Daily Range For GBP/USD is 114 pips

This week daily range


2007 5 Daily Daily Range For GBP/USD is 89 Pips
2007 10 Day Daily Range For GBP/USD is 97 pips
2007 20 Day Daily Range For GBP/USD is 105 pips
2007 55 Day Daily Range For GBP/USD is 112 pips
  • #19
  • May 18, 2007 7:25pm May 18, 2007 7:25pm
Quoting Markj
Thanks for the info GoodThings. Did you analyse the data yourself for this? Lot of home work involved drawing all the fib lines.
I went back and looked at each day starting fron Jan. 2006.
  • #20
  • May 18, 2007 9:36pm May 18, 2007 9:36pm
This is Thursday of this past week ending May 18


The last 360 trading days since Jan. 1 2006 the GbpUsd has retraced to with in 7 pips of the following fib levels after the days high and low are established. This retracement either happens the same day or within the next trading day.
23.6 fib 97.8% of the trading days.
38,2 fib 87.5% of the trading days.
50.0 fib 77.5% of the time trading days.
61.8 fib 65.3% of the trading days.
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