:: Cable (GBPUSD) Trend Trading ::

ATM = At The Moment

I am sitting on the sidelines now and waiting for the bottom. The leading indicators out at 10.00 however could provide a bounce for the pair if the figure is weaker than the already forecast flat figure of 0.00%. Maybe only tempory as the channel appears to be broken. (if the channel is correct that is)

And cable has not broken the blue downtrend channel.

http://img241.imageshack.us/img241/7...7085732pz0.png

I can see we're on the same page Tragapips. Great of you to drop in. And thanks for the chart. Yup, decisions, decisions. Tough call right now. Last 1.9747.

WOW, what is the blue line on your chart at 1.9750?

I see you're with Alpari Tragapips. I have an account with them but I don't use it because their swap method used to bug me. They close every trade and then open another at a different price a second later over their night to cover the swap. Do they still do that?

Correct. Pivot. Good to see you again howard.

I am always here watching.

WOW

I use alpari demo just for charting and you´re right they still do the swaps in that way.

I have my real account with Oanda.

Great to have you here. You can be the auditor. Consider yourself duly appointed.

It used to drive me crazy. Is a 100 pip move over the next couple of hours on it's way? Let's have a repeat of Tuesday. But it's a couple of hours late ATM.

WOW, Im having trouble with my ISP today. AGAIN!!

Am I right to say you only have sell#15 waiting?

Yup. And no more new orders till next week now. Probably.

While technical analysis may shed some light on what the boundaries are of a current trend or lines of support and resistance, it is fundamentals that make the market move. A fundamental is like a player that kicks a soccer ball to his teammate. Technical analysis is the effort of analysing the ground that it rolls on with its depth of grass and bumps to determine how far it will go and whether it will reach the other player before coming to rest.

Most novice traders wait until the ball is kicked so that they do not need to try and figure out which player it will be directed towards. Then they look at the ground and try to determine how far it will go assuming that the ball actually has a desire to make it to a certain point. What is commonly overlooked is the possibility of an interception by the other team. In terms of trading, I mean another fundamental such as news or an announcement that their TA did not account for.

Let me boil it down to what I believe many well intentioned traders are doing. They are spending most of their time educating themselves how to do technical analyses more accurately in the hopes that they will reach such a level of proficiency that they will become successful. They avoid spending too much time trying to predict moves because they lack the ability to interpret reports and upcoming announcements accurately. There is more of a fear of losing by taking a trade based on a report than sticking with the past trend represented by an “established” trend line that the market would surely not violate.

Here’s the problem with that type of plan. It fails to consider the other players on the field. Many times they are out to kick the ball in the opposite direction you are going. Banks and governments have vested interests in markets reaching and not reaching certain levels, and they don’t give a hoot about the 38% Fib line you drew on your chart.

Billions of dollars are on the line. Presidents and dictators do not consult the treasury expert so see if the GBP or JPY has reached a pivot point when they want to declare war or make some other political statement. We live in a volatile world that, in some form or another, affects the currency markets. The everyday unknown condition of the world makes it very difficult to simply ignore outside forces and bank the success of our trades on a perceived trend or candle pattern.

You need insight on an everyday basis to consistently make successful trades and be profitable. The only way to gain that type of insight is to learn how to find, interpret, and apply the news of events around the world as they happen to your trades. Simply, I always use consider both FA and TA. But I prefer fundamentals. And that's why these trades will be okay. Famous last words. Perhaps. We'll see.

That's it from me today. I'll see you all in about 13 hours. Have a good one. Last 1.9740 and I'm again in the merde.

Not the best day of my year BUT tomorrow is another day and it's friday so maybe wont be doing much anyway.

Then there is next week and the optimism it will bring!

Stick to your guns WOW and hopefully you will extricate yourself from the sticky stuff.

WHY... great point and its mentioned in trading in the zone all it takes is one player to destroy all your preconcieved notions. always keep this mind and control risk instead of focusing on profit.

Thanks for your thoughts guys. Last 1.9745 with 5 long at a loss of 52 each and another 5 at a loss of 10 each. Both with a 100 SL and TP.

Released for April in just over 2 hours. It's expected to come out very bullish at 0.6%. It may need to be higher to turn my all longs in to profit. I'm looking for over 40 pips over a couple of hours after release. If it comes out at 0.2% or lower, that means it's not even high enough to meet current UK inflation and I'll be stuffed.

Depending on who's in the know we may see a gentle move north between now and the release. If that happens then, IMO, it would be a value bet to go long 30 minutes before release. But I'll be at breakfast then so I won't be partaking. The government site is here. No more orders from me until Monday. I still have a Sell Limit remaining at 1.9835.

See you in a few hours. Good luck. Last 1.9736.

Last 1.9745. Catch you later.

Hi WOW,

Well done in the last month or so.

I've been long too for what feels like an eternity (actually less than 2 days). Not much one can do until after the report.

I'm busy 'till 30 minutes after the report...good thing?? lol

Enjoy the thread and totally agree with the soccer analogy.

Cheers and Good Luck