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Roadmap - A Way To Read Markets

  • #5,441
  • May 19, 2023 6:42am May 19, 2023 6:42am
Quoting ianhjulberg
{quote} I'm in that trade right now!{image}
With Indices -try the 5 minute to get in and manage trades. With Forex the 15 minute and 5 minute seem better but Laura may comment on that idea.
Pick what works for you with least pain. The idea is to have a profit, however small, after each trade. If a loss, then we want a small loss, not tear inducing pain

Anyway - back to the shadows.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #5,442
  • May 19, 2023 7:53am May 19, 2023 7:53am
GPBUSD got in after channel cross, remained in as the channel failure played out.
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  • #5,443
  • May 19, 2023 8:05am May 19, 2023 8:05am
Quoting mckeep
GPBUSD got in after channel cross, remained in as the channel failure played out. {image}
Nice one
  • #5,444
  • May 19, 2023 12:19pm May 19, 2023 12:19pm
DOW trade closed
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8 trades doing the 15m exercise today
-50% win rate
-Profit factor of 3

Small sample size, but showing signs of improvement
  • #5,445
  • May 20, 2023 3:43pm May 20, 2023 3:43pm
Been awhile since I posted here...and thought I would show some different variations of using the RoadMap.

As always thanks to Laura for sharing this... The Roadmap method really resonated with me when she first published this thread as the name Raghee Horner caught my attention and her 34ema channel..... I had great respect for Raghee for many years prior.... anyhoo I have adapted and tweaked RoadMap since Day 1 to suit me and how I trade... It has been a very rewarding endeavour that really gave me clarity on entries and exits.

I have adapted RM fo various situations and have a number of entry and exit models based on it.... SO below is a couple of them...These are entry and exit models that are only based on the channel... The 200 we of course want to be on the right side but not imperative for the entry at least...Exits you generally will always be far away from the 200.

So some context...I normally trade SPX Oil US30 GJ and Gold using 1 5 and 15m charts. I will trade the basic crosses and retests but with many other confluences/context.... ( I talk about them on The Flying Dutchman thread)
I dont use ADR(although I am aware of daily ranges) and I dont use RSI etc....again just making RoadMap my own as we should all do.

But what caught my eye was not only Laura posting up here again was how she was showing another member how to use the 15m to stay on the right side of a trade. First off...I dont use the 15m channel for what I am showing...I only use the 5m 8ema channel for these entry and exit models.

Very simply I need to see a close above or below the channel..(even better with an open on one side of channel and a close on other side) charts will highlight that.
I then will wait for a subsequent candle to close above/below channel in the same direction and that will trigger a buy/sell on the Open of the next candle.
Again charts should make it clear...and again I do use other confluences to verify my bias for that trade... So a minimum 2 candle setup with entry on open of the third candle...Or a 3 candle setup with entry on open of the fourth candle.

Thursday was a 3candle setup 100pt trade...Friday was a more volatile 2candle set up 140pts....

The other method of using the 8ema channel that I use is a Dynamic TP.... based on the age old adage of cutting your losses and letting the winners run. And this really goes along with Lauras recent lesson on the 15m Tf and staying on the right side of a trade.... I have shown numerous charts of the last few years with exactly what I will show... Its simple its highly effective in catching huge moves..BUT ITS NOT EASY...as it requires alot of screen time to babysit the trade and nailbiting LOL.

But its simply once in a trade and you see that the market begins to breakout and trend during a session you WAIT for the price to close outside of the 8ema channel.

The charts will show very clearly what I mean..and its easier said then done.. It doesnt always work.. but when it does and you can hang on the profits can really add up.

So first a few charts of Thurs and Friday US30
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And here are some showing the 8ema channel being used as a way to stay in a momentum trade. When price is opening and closing outside of the channel thats a very strong indicator to stay in the trade...and waiting for price to close on the opposite side will keep you in...

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Didnt intend for a longwinded post but I havent had much input on this thread despite trading RM for about 3 yrs or so almost everyday of the week.... Theres really not many days go by without a very good set up in the indices oil gold etc... Just a point of being there....TIMING the other axis that not enough pay attention to. but thats another post

OK time to enjoy the sunshine and I hope my ramblings here help someone in some way !

Cheers
Kevin
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #5,446
  • May 21, 2023 4:12am May 21, 2023 4:12am
Quoting bluesteele
Been awhile since I posted here...and thought I would show some different variations of using the RoadMap. As always thanks to Laura for sharing this... The Roadmap method really resonated with me when she first published this thread as the name Raghee Horner caught my attention and her 34ema channel..... I had great respect for Raghee for many years prior.... anyhoo I have adapted and tweaked RoadMap since Day 1 to suit me and how I trade... It has been a very rewarding endeavour that really gave me clarity on entries and exits. I have adapted...
Hi Blue,
In the flying Dutchman thread, if the candle close down the open box, you will open sell trade. But in the posts here, you opened long trade. Can you explain?
  • #5,447
  • May 21, 2023 4:33am May 21, 2023 4:33am
Quoting bluesteele
Been awhile since I posted here...and thought I would show some different variations of using the RoadMap. As always thanks to Laura for sharing this... The Roadmap method really resonated with me when she first published this thread as the name Raghee Horner caught my attention and her 34ema channel..... I had great respect for Raghee for many years prior.... anyhoo I have adapted and tweaked RoadMap since Day 1 to suit me and how I trade... It has been a very rewarding endeavour that really gave me clarity on entries and exits. I have adapted...
Hi Kevin,

Thank you for sharing this. Always love to see how people take elements of Roadmap and incorporate it into a wider strategic approach. Also lovely to hear you reference Raghee - some people leave a lasting impact upon us and she really did with me. It was the genesis of Roadmap after all.

I'm a little confused about the entry side of things in your examples. On your first example, wouldn't the bullish bars closing above the channel have gotten you into a long entry? What was going on that made you wait for a short?

It's interesting to see the inclusion of session open lines etc. I have explored them and have an indicator somewhere that automatically plots them but, alongside ADR and previous day high/low etc, I found it to be a bit of line overload for my tastes. I will have a look at Flying Dutchman though.
  • #5,448
  • May 21, 2023 10:32am May 21, 2023 10:32am
Quoting KevinZeng
{quote} Hi Blue, In the flying Dutchman thread, if the candle close down the open box, you will open sell trade. But in the posts here, you opened long trade. Can you explain?
Hi Kevin,

I will reply with some more details on the Flying Dutchmen thread and I prefer to keep discussion to there so as not to inundate Laura's thread with questions regarding boxes etc etc... But my reply to Laura may help clarify to you as well. But long story short is,,, As I have stated on Dutchy I have a number of entry setups that I employ using Session Box and RoadMap..

Cheers
Kevin
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #5,449
  • May 21, 2023 11:20am May 21, 2023 11:20am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Hi Kevin, Thank you for sharing this. Always love to see how people take elements of Roadmap and incorporate it into a wider strategic approach. Also lovely to hear you reference Raghee - some people leave a lasting impact upon us and she really did with me. It was the genesis of Roadmap after all. I'm a little confused about the entry side of things in your examples. On your first example, wouldn't the bullish bars closing above the channel have gotten you into a long entry? What was going on that made you wait for a short? It's interesting...
I think in that first chart that he posted, it was right around the time that Jay Powell was set to speak on the economy - and just before his speech, it did look like a channel failure to the upside was in progress. But once he started speaking price started breaking to the downside. He may have been waiting for that?
  • #5,450
  • May 21, 2023 11:33am May 21, 2023 11:33am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Hi Kevin, Thank you for sharing this. Always love to see how people take elements of Roadmap and incorporate it into a wider strategic approach. Also lovely to hear you reference Raghee - some people leave a lasting impact upon us and she really did with me. It was the genesis of Roadmap after all. I'm a little confused about the entry side of things in your examples. On your first example, wouldn't the bullish bars closing above the channel have gotten you into a long entry? What was going on that made you wait for a short? It's interesting...
Hi Laura,

Thanks for the reply and questions... I must say I agree with line overload lol... I will normally have a number of windows open for the 4-5 pairs I trade. I do like having Round numbers and quarter levels as well...But it all adds up to sensory overload,,, Which is one of my reasons for using TV is to toggle indis off and on easily and as well to annotate charts easily...

Session lines are definitely one of the components of my trading..Prev days Tokyo/NY OHLC and current days (1hr box)

Now the biggest question US30 Friday,,,
The short was based on the 3 major components of my method:
1) BTMM(Beat the Market Maker) / Stacey Burke
2) Al Brooks Probabilities off the Open
3) Roadmap

And this is what I was looking at for the US30 trade:

#1 SB( Stacey Burke) I am always looking at where is the market based on 3 day cycles...and with that came Friday a Day 3 so I am looking for a reversal on Day 3... so with day 1 and 2 in mind that means Im looking to short. And if im looking to short I want to short up high. With the Fed talk at 11 it was a point of simply waiting for the move to unfold... More detail is price ramped up in 3 distinct swings (outlined by TL) to the newstime.

3's ,,, Day 3,,, 3rd hour 8-11, 3swings ramping up for the dump. picture perfect setup ala SB

#2 Al Brooks,,, There are 78-5M bars in a trading session
Over 30 years of data tells us that :
5 minute bars
Bar 1 : 20% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day.
Bar 7 : 50% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day.
Bar 13 : 70% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day.
Bar 18 : 90% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day.
Bar 78 : 99% probability of being the HI/LOW of the day.

So I know taking the initial 1m cross off the open has a low prob of succeeding...(but 20% of days 1 day of the week the market will run straight off the open)
Fed talk coming so again waiting mode...11am NY comes Fed talks thats BAR 20 the pre equity NY Open has already taken the Asian high out.
Price has ramped up ala SB above #1 ...Again I am looking for a short..Thats my whole thesis..

Now I have the probabilities in my mind Bar 20 11am Feds spikes down...thinking either continuation down or it reverses I turn to RoadMap

#3 RoadMap Now is where I get the Signal the Trigger to enter short,,, I have probabilities on my side (Al Brooks),,I have Day 3 reversal set up
picture perfect (SB),,and now I have a 1m cross although that's not what gets me in...Sometimes I am entered before a cross based on #1 and #2
But its confirmation as well...

And then the trigger to enter...Price is opening and closing outside of the channel That's my trigger to get in Bar 20 Fed Bar closed outside the channel
Bar 21 opens and closes outside the channel....again all of #1 and #2 is confirming Short... Short on open of Bar 22.

Now with all that said... This was an very high probability setup but I have had many many failures as well. Either from missing something or probabilities don't always work out...

I hope this answers your question Laura... and to others I really don't want to plug Laura's thread up with things non RoadMap related and I would ask that you post questions on the Dutchman thread... Of course its Laura's thread and I defer this to her...Just seen to many threads get derailed

First chart Basic day counts BTMM / SB...how I draw my thesis...again more to it and I've included Day Opens for a clue so to speak.

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Second chart a 1min visual of all 3 components .

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I hope this helps clarify and answer some questions... for others feel free to pm me and I will answer as best as I can when I can...

A beautiful sunny morning in Vancouver BC today !

Cheers
Kevin
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #5,451
  • May 22, 2023 3:23am May 22, 2023 3:23am
Not every day is fantastic for Dax and I am not great every day.
Here I tried a short that worked and a long that didn't. Too many horizontal levels should have warned me to wait and do nothing but I didn't. Got away with the short then lost the long. Now in a range and will be a good boy and wait.Maybe no more trades before 10 am but that's the system and I should stick to it. Lucky me this morning but I should be more disciplined .
That's it from me for a while.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #5,452
  • May 22, 2023 5:30am May 22, 2023 5:30am
Quoting turnip15
Not every day is fantastic for Dax and I am not great every day. Here I tried a short that worked and a long that didn't. Too many horizontal levels should have warned me to wait and do nothing but I didn't. Got away with the short then lost the long. Now in a range and will be a good boy and wait.Maybe no more trades before 10 am but that's the system and I should stick to it. Lucky me this morning but I should be more disciplined . That's it from me for a while. {image} {image}
Result. Just those two trades up tp 10am UK time. I feel a certain amount of smugness at having sat on my hands after those two unwise ( but lucky at this time) trades. Others may or may not agree but, for me, discipline is a daily contest between rational me and impulsive, trigger happy me.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #5,453
  • May 22, 2023 5:55am May 22, 2023 5:55am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Result. Just those two trades up tp 10am UK time. I feel a certain amount of smugness at having sat on my hands after those two unwise ( but lucky at this time) trades. Others may or may not agree but, for me, discipline is a daily contest between rational me and impulsive, trigger happy me.
That's the battle I'm trying to fight too (discipline)
  • #5,454
  • May 22, 2023 5:59am May 22, 2023 5:59am
Quoting ianhjulberg
{quote} That's the battle I'm trying to fight too (discipline)
It gets better with practice but you will always need the ability, at times, to watch yourself from the sidelines
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #5,455
  • May 22, 2023 6:02am May 22, 2023 6:02am
If needing to break a habit of over-trading, limit yourselves to X trades per day maximum. It's not a wise long-term approach but it's amazing how choosy a trader can be when there is a hard limit on activity!
  • #5,456
  • May 22, 2023 6:13am May 22, 2023 6:13am
Quoting LauraT
If needing to break a habit of over-trading, limit yourselves to X trades per day maximum. It's not a wise long-term approach but it's amazing how choosy a trader can be when there is a hard limit on activity!
I've thought of trying this. Will probably give it a go. Just have to figure out what my number is!
  • #5,457
  • May 22, 2023 6:20am May 22, 2023 6:20am
Quoting ianhjulberg
{quote} I've thought of trying this. Will probably give it a go. Just have to figure out what my number is!
Start with 5 - if that doesn't prove restrictive enough, drop it to 3 and then gradually increase - the aim is to sit on your hands so much that it hurts
  • #5,458
  • Edited 6:35am May 22, 2023 6:21am | Edited 6:35am
Quoting ianhjulberg
{quote} I've thought of trying this. Will probably give it a go. Just have to figure out what my number is!
Try three. Especially if you have a losing long ( for example) followed by a losing short -draw a line from top of losing long ( for example) and from bottom of losing short and wait for a break of either level and enter a third trade......IF that loses then stop and sit back and watch or go fishing
EDIT: Sorry - I posted before seeing Laura's reply.But you now have choices
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #5,459
  • May 22, 2023 6:29am May 22, 2023 6:29am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Start with 5 - if that doesn't prove restrictive enough, drop it to 3 and then gradually increase - the aim is to sit on your hands so much that it hurts
Ok.
This could be painful!
  • #5,460
  • May 22, 2023 6:40am May 22, 2023 6:40am
As an aside -if you miss a down move - you might get the bounce within Roadmap channel off levels ( dotted line is round number)
There's more to it but it is an idea to watch out for or build upon.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
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