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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #86,741
  • May 18, 2023 8:55am May 18, 2023 8:55am
I reckon the dollar will stay strong until the debt ceiling issue is resolved. one would think that the dollar would go even higher once the fiasco is over but the way i see it, they require the inflow of liquidity right now to ready all their necessary payments/spending once the debt ceiling is approved. hence, can see the dollar and bond yields going so strong right now but should start to ease back down once the issue is settled. meanwhile should only expect any pullbacks to be corrective.
  • #86,742
  • May 18, 2023 9:59am May 18, 2023 9:59am
Is there any chance this will come down.. Waiting for reversal
  • #86,743
  • May 18, 2023 10:27am May 18, 2023 10:27am
Quoting Ipradzz
Is there any chance this will come down.. Waiting for reversal
You may get a small reprieve during the Asian Market in a few hours, but I don't see this stopping until Monday. Even then it may not stop much. It didn't this monday.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #86,744
  • Edited 2:58pm May 18, 2023 10:40am | Edited 2:58pm
Amending my long target.
IF the 151 high was wave 5 then we need to see some ABC action off of it on the higher time frames. Wave B often forms at the 90 % retracement off of the first leg down after a wave 5. That is 148.7. If however the recent low was a wave 4 on the daily like I think it was then we are going to eclipse 151. Either way 148 will need to be addressed IMO.

143.5 first. Then three legs down to 139 before finishing upward IMO.

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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #86,745
  • May 18, 2023 10:51am May 18, 2023 10:51am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
Amending my long target. IF the 151 high was wave 5 then we need to see some ABC action off of it on the higher time frames. Wave B often forms at the 90 % retracement off of the first leg down after a wave 5. That is 148.7. If however the recent low was a wave 4 on the daily like I think it was then we are going to eclipse 151. Either way 148 will need to be addressed IMO. {image}
Thank you
I am short @ 136.500
  • #86,746
  • May 18, 2023 10:53am May 18, 2023 10:53am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} You may get a small reprieve during the Asian Market in a few hours, but I don't see this stopping until Monday. Even then it may not stop much. It didn't this monday.
What would be the impact of debt celling on this pair
  • #86,747
  • May 18, 2023 10:57am May 18, 2023 10:57am
Quoting Ipradzz
{quote} What would be the impact of debt celling on this pair
I don't waste my time speculating fundamentals beyond how they help structure. Whatever they need to do for the Dollar to keep going up is what will happen lol
Fundamentals said we shouldn't still be going up. Price action did.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #86,748
  • May 18, 2023 11:00am May 18, 2023 11:00am
Quoting Ipradzz
Is there any chance this will come down.. Waiting for reversal

Possible 138.2 retracement incoming... hope that helps
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #86,749
  • May 18, 2023 11:09am May 18, 2023 11:09am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} Possible 138.2 retracement incoming... hope that helps
Thank you for your response sir
Appreciate it
  • #86,750
  • May 19, 2023 2:01am May 19, 2023 2:01am
#USDJPY / H4
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  • #86,751
  • May 19, 2023 6:58am May 19, 2023 6:58am
Short for 16pips..
lets see in a few hour..
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L-H-LH-HH -> B // H-L-HL-LL -> B
  • #86,752
  • May 19, 2023 8:46am May 19, 2023 8:46am
Maybe USDJPY is going to 150 in the longer period.
  • #86,753
  • May 21, 2023 2:36pm May 21, 2023 2:36pm
Although USDJPY price action on the daily time frame is sideways, the dominant technical structure is bullish. We can expect further bullish ambition to target the next technical barrier at the 140.400 area (blue). In the circumstance, any southward move would be corrective.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #86,754
  • May 22, 2023 9:58am May 22, 2023 9:58am
We had a bullish week last week. It is Monday. We should be bearish, or in the lease move sideways as we did last week. let's see.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #86,755
  • May 22, 2023 9:42pm May 22, 2023 9:42pm
Japan pmi is increasing as news then also why jpy weakening? See chfjpy which highest of last 25 years. So does it mean jpy is weaken of last 25 years. Sometime I feel that it all is game to eat meney of detailers.
  • #86,756
  • May 24, 2023 3:39pm May 24, 2023 3:39pm
140.5 target before we do any real pausing I think. We shall see. I am obviously long tho.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #86,757
  • May 25, 2023 5:44am May 25, 2023 5:44am
Trade update as per my 28 April post.

2 longs closed @ 1.3958

Remaining position - stop raised to 137.40

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  • #86,758
  • May 25, 2023 1:53pm May 25, 2023 1:53pm
Fitch announced they may cut the U.S. credit rating due to the debt standoff in congress. When S&P cut the U.S.'s credit rating in 2011, shorting USD/JPY was the best trade:
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Here's a table of returns for major currencies over the following month:
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  • #86,759
  • Edited 2:39pm May 25, 2023 2:27pm | Edited 2:39pm
Quoting ForexStats
Fitch announced they may cut the U.S. credit rating due to the debt standoff in congress. When S&P cut the U.S.'s credit rating in 2011, shorting USD/JPY was the best trade: {image} Here's a table of returns for major currencies over the following month: {image}
If they are coming, Bears need to get in now. I don't think it will be too much of a push back though. At these levels BOJ interventions last all of a day.

Next week is a 4 day week in the US, so perfect week to short this multi week long we have been in. I anticipate it starting tomorrow morning, reversing a little on Monday before continuing through the week. We had a bullish week here on UJ. The only times I have seen them not continue after some Monday selling has been when there was also some Friday selling. So.. for an ABC corrective wave to give profit to bulls, and excite some bears it needs to be now at or around the 140.5 mark. All opinion.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #86,760
  • May 27, 2023 12:01pm May 27, 2023 12:01pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} If they are coming, Bears need to get in now. I don't think it will be too much of a push back though. At these levels BOJ interventions last all of a day. Next week is a 4 day week in the US, so perfect week to short this multi week long we have been in. I anticipate it starting tomorrow morning, reversing a little on Monday before continuing through the week. We had a bullish week here on UJ. The only times I have seen them not continue after some Monday selling has been when there was also some Friday selling. So.. for an ABC corrective...

Friday did NOT look very Bearish to me.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
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