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USD/JPY Discussion 6 replies

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USD/JPY Discussion

140.5 target before we do any real pausing I think. We shall see. I am obviously long tho.
When you feel like you HAVE to trade is when you least should!
Trade update as per my 28 April post.

2 longs closed @ 1.3958

Remaining position - stop raised to 137.40

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Fitch announced they may cut the U.S. credit rating due to the debt standoff in congress. When S&P cut the U.S.'s credit rating in 2011, shorting USD/JPY was the best trade:
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Here's a table of returns for major currencies over the following month:
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Quoting ForexStats
Fitch announced they may cut the U.S. credit rating due to the debt standoff in congress. When S&P cut the U.S.'s credit rating in 2011, shorting USD/JPY was the best trade: {image} Here's a table of returns for major currencies over the following month: {image}
If they are coming, Bears need to get in now. I don't think it will be too much of a push back though. At these levels BOJ interventions last all of a day.

Next week is a 4 day week in the US, so perfect week to short this multi week long we have been in. I anticipate it starting tomorrow morning, reversing a little on Monday before continuing through the week. We had a bullish week here on UJ. The only times I have seen them not continue after some Monday selling has been when there was also some Friday selling. So.. for an ABC corrective wave to give profit to bulls, and excite some bears it needs to be now at or around the 140.5 mark. All opinion.
When you feel like you HAVE to trade is when you least should!
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} If they are coming, Bears need to get in now. I don't think it will be too much of a push back though. At these levels BOJ interventions last all of a day. Next week is a 4 day week in the US, so perfect week to short this multi week long we have been in. I anticipate it starting tomorrow morning, reversing a little on Monday before continuing through the week. We had a bullish week here on UJ. The only times I have seen them not continue after some Monday selling has been when there was also some Friday selling. So.. for an ABC corrective...

Friday did NOT look very Bearish to me.
When you feel like you HAVE to trade is when you least should!
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} Friday did NOT look very Bearish to me.
Pleased to hear it. I am still long with 1 position to final destination.
I just need a little retracement
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USDJPY price action on the daily time frame is bullish. Presently it is tackling the minor 140.500 horizontal resistance area. Nevertheless, as the dominant technical structure is favorably bullish, we may see further northward move. A medium-term target of bullish ambition is the 143.500/145.330 horizontal resistance zone (purple).

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
Quoting forexn00b81
I just need a little retracement {image}
If today's bitcoin action is any indication we may get it.
When you feel like you HAVE to trade is when you least should!
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} If today's bitcoin action is any indication we may get it.
See that's the beauty of this forum idiots like me can learn things like that
Quoting forexn00b81
{quote} See that's the beauty of this forum idiots like me can learn things like that
We are all babes in the woods at some point in our lives my friend. Welcome. Bearish Mondays seem to still en Vogue. US is closed for the Holiday. Let's see if we actually get some retracement today or if they wait for the US and sent it sideways. Consumer confidence is tomorrow, and Jolt Jobs on Wed. Both of these SHOULD come out bad, if my current job search is any indication. The question is will the bad news be taken as bad, or will inflation make the news bizzaro news where bad news is good, and good is bad.
When you feel like you HAVE to trade is when you least should!
IF UJ can clear 142.8 we are off to 148 IMO

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When you feel like you HAVE to trade is when you least should!
The dollar is expected to appreciate for a while due to the impact of interest rate differentials.
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
IF UJ can clear 142.8 we are off to 148 IMO {image}
Higher tf chart def show room to the upside and cot data shows non commercial buys are increasing however they are only at about 50% max positions so lotttts of upside room

I always question that cot data tho, as I always question news, lots can happen between 2 Tuesdays

It might be interesting to some that the entries placed shown above are by a robot that has one of the highest hit rates I have ever seen, although it has some drawdown sometimes a good bit it seems to always win just a question of when the pullback comes, it only looks for 25 pips collectively. I'm sure there's better logic out there but I haven't really found it, although we are working on a DAX robot right now that looks extremely promising if we can get a coder involved here at forex factory.
Do it!
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Sideways. Now let's see if that ends the bear move. Hit my low ABC target.
When you feel like you HAVE to trade is when you least should!
I'm stuck waiting for support to give away to the downside at 139.573. USDJPY floated down a bit.
Quoting joemoney1231
I'm stuck waiting for support to give away to the downside at 139.573. USDJPY floated down a bit.
Think the US budget deal kinda has it at an indecision and I think they want it that way I really think the smart money owns the politicians and heavily influence things like this (Soros a good example)
Japan is a big debt country. Foreign exchange intervention is unlikely to be implemented.
If foreign exchange intervention were to occur, Japanese taxes would rise, and Japanese wages, which have not increased for 30 years, would become even more difficult.
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