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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #744,541
  • May 7, 2023 11:46am May 7, 2023 11:46am
Quoting dantpm
There appears to be a lot of evidence suggesting that GU will drop in the near term. The only detail working against a drop is the bias of retail traders to short! Typically that is an excuse for it to go higher not lower!
How you see evidence GU dropping?
  • #744,542
  • May 7, 2023 11:48am May 7, 2023 11:48am
I see overbought but only bullish signs atm
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  • #744,543
  • May 7, 2023 11:57am May 7, 2023 11:57am
Quoting Jolita
{quote} How you see evidence GU dropping?
I was watching Elliott wave patterns, @georginson, @traderview, and more analysis all appearing to me to suggest that a top was near. We are in an area where the tradingview's market structure indicator suggests that price often turns around in the 1 hr and 4 hr intervals. For every trader that sees things going one way there will always be traders seeing it go the other way. As I suggested, it appears to me.
  • #744,544
  • May 7, 2023 12:22pm May 7, 2023 12:22pm
Quoting dantpm
{quote} I was watching Elliott wave patterns, @georginson, @traderview, and more analysis all appearing to me to suggest that a top was near. We are in an area where the tradingview's market structure indicator suggests that price often turns around in the 1 hr and 4 hr intervals. For every trader that sees things going one way there will always be traders seeing it go the other way. As I suggested, it appears to me.
Even the distance between the Higher Highs are getting closer each Time = buyer running out of gas
But still shorting now will surely get us out of our trade

Fundamental must be a No US banking Woes to be occurred again
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #744,545
  • Edited 12:43pm May 7, 2023 12:25pm | Edited 12:43pm
In this chart, in addition to the apparent resistance at the 1 hr level, notice how twice on the chart when you get a double tap in the RSI overbought, the market heads down from that point. Just one of those details that I noticed happens from time to time.
The 7-period lookback magenta RSI tends to be a leading indicator of the direction of the RSI.
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  • #744,546
  • May 7, 2023 12:28pm May 7, 2023 12:28pm
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} Even the distance between the Higher Highs are getting closer each Time = buyer running out of gas But still shorting now will surely get us out of our trade Fundamental must be a No US banking Woes to be occurred again
You do have the FED stepping up with their support packages and you have the economy leaning toward showing the Fed that inflation is coming down. Now if only the FED would reduce the money supply to actually fix the blankety-blank inflation that they introduced by increasing the money supply!
  • #744,547
  • May 7, 2023 12:28pm May 7, 2023 12:28pm
reference point.1.25950
the price must at least return to this level.
after that it may even rise again.
  • #744,548
  • May 7, 2023 12:30pm May 7, 2023 12:30pm
Found this post on twitter
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What y'all thought on that
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #744,549
  • May 7, 2023 12:33pm May 7, 2023 12:33pm
Quoting dantpm
{quote} You do have the FED stepping up with their support packages and you have the economy leaning toward showing the Fed that inflation is coming down. Now if only the FED would reduce the money supply to actually fix the blankety-blank inflation that they introduced by increasing the money supply!
Agreed.
Was watching GDP nowcasting and estimated to be 2.66% Q2 2023
But we need either a strong USD reason or Weak GBP reason for GU to go down, More likely we will be getting it from weak UK economy i guess
Admitting US CPI going down, FED rate cycle coming to an end
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #744,550
  • May 7, 2023 1:09pm May 7, 2023 1:09pm
Quoting Fardeen1209
Found this post on twitter {image}What y'all thought on that
i think it’s a load of crap.

If everything was priced in we would be at equilibrium. However alot of things can be priced in temporally, it provides financial stability and evens out differences.
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #744,551
  • May 7, 2023 1:20pm May 7, 2023 1:20pm
Quoting Ferna
{quote} i think it’s a load of crap. If everything was priced in we would be at equilibrium. However alot of things can be priced in temporally, it provides financial stability and evens out differences.
The markets are constantly adjusting to news and new details. The point is that by the time something appears in the 'news', insiders with early access to the 'news' have already acted and the market has priced in the changes.
  • #744,552
  • May 7, 2023 1:22pm May 7, 2023 1:22pm
Quoting Ferna
{quote} i think it’s a load of crap. If everything was priced in we would be at equilibrium. However alot of things can be priced in temporally, it provides financial stability and evens out differences.
Agreed.
Thats my view too.
Cause i think it is the disequilibrium that move price which is caused by the probability for the occurrence of an event, which continues to fluctuate untill that particular event becomes a fact, then the focus shift to the next main event...
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #744,553
  • May 7, 2023 1:40pm May 7, 2023 1:40pm
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} Agreed. Thats my view too. Cause i think it is the disequilibrium that move price which is caused by the probability for the occurrence of an event, which continues to fluctuate untill that particular event becomes a fact, then the focus shift to the next main event...
Before we had fixed currency rates, then we had free floatimg currency rates. It would be rational to think that we now have a hybrid of the two, since we no longer see people like George Soros coming in as master puppeteers and crashimg currency after currency via shortselling.
All the systems are integrated, the only major threat right now that can threaten that order is if BRICS started offering collateral in form of gold or rare earth metals. Other than that we are at static disequilibrium.

Well of course this is just my opinion, and im a new trader. Feel free to correct and add your understanding! Really interesting to discuss!
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #744,554
  • May 7, 2023 2:16pm May 7, 2023 2:16pm
Quoting Ferna
{quote} Before we had fixed currency rates, then we had free floatimg currency rates. It would be rational to think that we now have a hybrid of the two, since we no longer see people like George Soros coming in as master puppeteers and crashimg currency after currency via shortselling. All the systems are integrated, the only major threat right now that can threaten that order is if BRICS started offering collateral in form of gold or rare earth metals. Other than that we are at static disequilibrium. Well of course this is just my opinion, and...
Now you have central banks placing buy and sell orders to manipulate prices by enticing trading computers to move prices towards those open orders. There is nothing preventing big traders from doing the same thing to attempt to manipulate prices, you would need very deep pockets and a well-thought-out multi-currency approach!
  • #744,555
  • Edited 2:46pm May 7, 2023 2:35pm | Edited 2:46pm
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Now you have central banks placing buy and sell orders to manipulate prices by enticing trading computers to move prices towards those open orders. There is nothing preventing big traders from doing the same thing to attempt to manipulate prices, you would need very deep pockets and a well-thought-out multi-currency approach!
I mean it is in static disequilibrium as a means to stabilize each country’s economic cycle. It follows the key industry of each country.
Economy always been a source of conflict between countries, with an integrated system where each player is dependant om each other and gets their fair share through the economic cycle, there can be less source of conflict and incentives for investors and banks to do run. I don’t believe the central banks do any manipulation with intention of setting disfavorable prices.
In fact Powell were very worried about the market strengthening the dollar too much, making it disfavorable to allied nations(december meeting) and now well the dollar been declining for a while, which is good for both america and Europe.
America moved their manufacturing industry back to america, a strong dollar disfavours exports and investment. Weak european currencies forces companies to raise prices domestically. Everything needs to be balanced with help of both industry, banks and regulators. It’s not in our interest of course as traders, since we don’t have insight.
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #744,556
  • May 7, 2023 3:07pm May 7, 2023 3:07pm
Quoting Ferna
{quote} I mean it is in static disequilibrium as a means to stabilize each country’s economic cycle. It follows the key industry of each country. Economy always been a source of conflict between countries, with an integrated system where each player is dependant om each other and gets their fair share through the economic cycle, there can be less source of conflict and incentives for investors and banks to do run. I don’t believe the central banks do any manipulation with intention of setting disfavorable prices. In fact Powell were very worried...
A stronger dollar drove down the stock market. Of course 'Powell' (everyone in the US government/economy connected to anyone trying to export) was 'concerned' (panicking!). Each country trying to weather current economic conditions wants to balance their currency with respect to the export potential for local businesses and import potential or the cost of imported goods for residents or food, raw materials, and so on. Europe is getting crippled by the war between the US/Ukraine and Russia, with respect to financial obligations, refugees, and the loss of inexpensive raw materials (oil, gas, metals, ...). I wonder how long they will continue to follow the US lead?
  • #744,557
  • May 7, 2023 3:28pm May 7, 2023 3:28pm
Quoting dantpm
{quote} A stronger dollar drove down the stock market. Of course 'Powell' (everyone in the US government/economy connected to anyone trying to export) was 'concerned' (panicking!). Each country trying to weather current economic conditions wants to balance their currency with respect to the export potential for local businesses and import potential or the cost of imported goods for residents or food, raw materials, and so on. Europe is getting crippled by the war between the US/Ukraine and Russia, with respect to financial obligations, refugees,...
well i agree with you. But overall i think it’s how it works. We are currently at a standstill point.
i mean everything is relative of course. It been shown mathematically that criminals don’t commit a crime 99,9% of the time - thus it is very rare for any kind of villainy to occur. It is a statistical outlier to be a victim of crime in real life and/or in the market.
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #744,558
  • May 7, 2023 3:37pm May 7, 2023 3:37pm
Quoting Ferna
{quote} well i agree with you. But overall i think it’s how it works. We are currently at a standstill point. i mean everything is relative of course. It been shown mathematically that criminals don’t commit a crime 99,9% of the time - thus it is very rare for any kind of villainy to occur. It is a statistical outlier to be a victim of crime in real life and/or in the market.
I almost agree with you except that in the case of the forex system, the system is designed to milk liquidity from the market to move the market and this system that intrinsically robs from the common man trying to trade to fund the market makers is seen as fair to all concerned.
  • #744,559
  • May 7, 2023 3:47pm May 7, 2023 3:47pm
IG markets is opened with a 200 point/20 pip spread. Why would anyone try to trade into this market?
  • #744,560
  • May 7, 2023 3:49pm May 7, 2023 3:49pm
Here's a technical perspective on GBPUSD from a medium-term swing trader. The recent bullish impulse of GBPUSD price action on the H4 time frame is being challenged by bears. However, should bulls succeed in significantly breaking out of the 1.23490/1.26170 horizontal resistance zone (purple), seen on the weekly time frame, we may see further northward move to an area of value.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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