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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #12,741
  • May 15, 2007 11:01am May 15, 2007 11:01am
A large spike like that reminds me of a large jump to clear the rocks before a greater fall down the cliff!
  • #12,742
  • May 15, 2007 11:08am May 15, 2007 11:08am
I read that GBPUSD is now pricing in another 0.25% rate hike... thus the bullishness?
  • #12,743
  • May 15, 2007 11:16am May 15, 2007 11:16am
Re-shorted this morning @9782 after TP @9765, currently down 85 pips but still holding for a while...
  • #12,744
  • May 15, 2007 11:31am May 15, 2007 11:31am
anyone selling the cable at this point?
  • #12,745
  • May 15, 2007 11:40am May 15, 2007 11:40am
Quoting Why Oh Why
Make of it what you will SunTrader. You're in the disagree with Why camp - join the majority here. Sir, have a great day. :
If you have a profitable trade that is all that matters. If you don't want to explain clearer your reasoning thats ok too. But then why post.

Curious also why you referred to your earlier post where all you said was it was going higher because supposedly "the numbers are leaked". Is that really supposed to be helpful "information" ?
  • #12,746
  • May 15, 2007 12:00pm May 15, 2007 12:00pm
well see if theres a follow through past the 9885 area this week because, as strong as today was, the daily chart looks like a consolidation for later move down to me if not. BoE quarterly inflation report should be an interesting read tomorrow. last one projected uk gdp growth/inflation falling off their peak between now and the end of this year. looks like either well see either a break of that level or a daily close below the 50MAs that cables been playing around the last couple of days. course i could be way off, the move up today was much stronger than i thought and its still clinging within sight of the daily highs as i write this...

Quoting BurgerKing
I read that GBPUSD is now pricing in another 0.25% rate hike... thus the bullishness?
  • #12,747
  • May 15, 2007 12:00pm May 15, 2007 12:00pm
Quoting el_duende
Oh dear this is my worst trading day to date! I tried trading news today and got it wrong perfectly! Last time I gamble. What are peoples views on the news today?
I was suggesting that to trade the news is a gamble. Really agreeing with the post above in answer to el_duende's question above. IMO by the time the numbers are released generally many have already acted on information as to what it will be hours before. Or minutes before sometimes in the lock in.
Quoting SunTrader
If you don't want to explain clearer your reasoning thats ok too. But then why post. Curious also why you referred to your earlier post where all you said was it was going higher because supposedly "the numbers are leaked". Is that really supposed to be helpful "information" ?
I referred to that post more for the time than anything else - it was posted 5 minutes before the FA referred to was released. Simply, many here are wise after the event and my post reflected my view that the numbers had been priced in because of the leak IMO that happened. I'm sorry if you didn't feel that what I posted was helpful. However, in the context of the original question I felt it was. That is to say I was agreeing with el_duende. Trading the news is a gamble.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #12,748
  • May 15, 2007 12:03pm May 15, 2007 12:03pm
Quoting BurgerKing
I read that GBPUSD is now pricing in another 0.25% rate hike... thus the bullishness?

BurgerKing:

I had wondered why the big bull move occurred. It
didn't fit with the news announcement releases
here on the FF calender. Well, I guess your reason
is as good as any.

It shows how unpredictable the market is. Sure
feel for those who went short earlier today.
  • #12,749
  • May 15, 2007 12:09pm May 15, 2007 12:09pm
This is where I got that info:
Quote
[IFR Forex Watch]
[SQUAWK BOX]

[14:23 GBP/USD: Runs into Resistance Ahead of 1.9800, Again] London, May 15.
Cable has once again ran into resistance ahead of 1.9800, after bouncing off
earlier lows just shy of 1.9750. The rate also met resistance pre-1.9800 after
the 12:30GMT disclosure of US April inflation data.
Above-figure obstacles include 1.9829 (today"s early Europe intra-day high) and
1.9845 (last Friday"s NY session top). The big-picture sterling story is loss
consolidation from last Wednesday"s high of 2.0000. Touted bear targets south of
1.9750 include 1.9710, 1.9660, 1.9590, 1.9545 and 1.9410.
Looking ahead: May"s NAHB US housing market index will be unveiled at 17:00GMT.
Forecast: 33. The BoE quarterly inflation report will be published at 09:30GMT
tomorrow. UK interest rate futures are currently pricing another 25bp UK base
rate rise to 5.75% in Q3--despite April"s decline in annualized UK CPI inflation
to 2.8% from 3.1% in March. However, the risk of an additional 25bp UK base rate
hike to 6.0% has lessened post-UK CPI. UK unemployment and earnings figures are
due at 08:30GMT tomorrow. [email protected]

Personally, I am short GBPUSD on several places (some below current price). But will hold it till it works out.
  • #12,750
  • May 15, 2007 12:13pm May 15, 2007 12:13pm
Suntrader--if you have been trading for 12 years, you are obviously a survivor. Care to tell us if you have a system and what it is? Thanks in advnce.
  • #12,751
  • May 15, 2007 12:16pm May 15, 2007 12:16pm
Quoting winterwhite
BurgerKing:

I had wondered why the big bull move occurred. It
didn't fit with the news announcement releases
here on the FF calender. Well, I guess your reason
is as good as any.

It shows how unpredictable the market is. Sure
feel for those who went short earlier today.
Carry trades pushing up while UJ stalled. The focus was the stock market reaction. At the releases, market stalled, directionless. When Dow Jones printed +50 points, the carries pushed and USD fell across the board.

That was a pretty expected outcome for the data as they came.
  • #12,752
  • May 15, 2007 1:07pm May 15, 2007 1:07pm
Quote
When Dow Jones printed +50 points, the carries pushed and USD fell across the board.

I closed my shorts when i saw the DOW moving up. Only good thing I did today. lol

No more gambling on trading news stick to some technicals and hopefully right direction fundamentally.

Tomorrow is another trading day and I am positioning myself now short at 1.9850.

On hourly bar opened and closed above top bollinger band, not quite a perfect divergence bar however but I will trade it.

On the 2 hour chart we see the trend and it is approaching top channel line. I may add additional shorts at 1.9880 area if needs be.

Initial target is .1.9750


http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u...nde007/bad.gif

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u...lipboard11.jpg
  • #12,753
  • May 15, 2007 1:22pm May 15, 2007 1:22pm
further to the above posts euro looks like it is worth shorting as well, Better divergence signal on this chart.

ps does anyone know how to change time in metatrader? mine is an hour ahead
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,754
  • May 15, 2007 1:37pm May 15, 2007 1:37pm
Quoting cesarnc
Carry trades pushing up while UJ stalled. The focus was the stock market reaction. At the releases, market stalled, directionless. When Dow Jones printed +50 points, the carries pushed and USD fell across the board.

That was a pretty expected outcome for the data as they came.

cesarnc:

As a new trader, I am not familiar with the interpretation, nor the
significance, of the fundamentals. I guess it will take a while before
I do. To be honest, I don't know where to start to gain the understanding
of the markets as you now have.

Thank you for imparting your thoughts to us.
  • #12,755
  • May 15, 2007 1:59pm May 15, 2007 1:59pm
Quoting winterwhite
cesarnc:

As a new trader, I am not familiar with the interpretation, nor the
significance, of the fundamentals. I guess it will take a while before
I do. To be honest, I don't know where to start to gain the understanding
of the markets as you now have.

Thank you for imparting your thoughts to us.
I keep Dow Jones open + 4 pairs (GU, UJ, GJ, EU) open simultaneously and get ready for news releases beforehand, as to anticipate the favoured outcomes. Also read some market commentaries throughout the day.

Learned to do that after being hit hard during the Chinese crisis in February.

The 4 pairs open give you the broader view on how market is trading and where is the cash going to and from. Today you could see UJ down and stalled at 120.20 while EU and Gu (thus GJ) were soaring.

With released data and dow jones opening green I loaded the boat with carry trades. Zero tech to go in. Not because I knew it would happen. But because I knew that carry trades would be favoured in this picture.

Dumped the lots for profits using techis when the pairs stalled at expected resistances

Now back to the boring bottom fishing action...
  • #12,756
  • May 15, 2007 2:02pm May 15, 2007 2:02pm
winterwhite:

not to take to others. I am in same as you. but to understand how others speaks. can take some time to understand what they mean. so no right or wrong, just skill to understand what others say and to reflect that on own thoughts.
  • #12,757
  • May 15, 2007 2:27pm May 15, 2007 2:27pm
Quoting cesarnc
I keep Dow Jones open + 4 pairs (GU, UJ, GJ, EU) open simultaneously and get ready for news releases beforehand, as to anticipate the favoured outcomes. Also read some market commentaries throughout the day.

Learned to do that after being hit hard during the Chinese crisis in February.

The 4 pairs open give you the broader view on how market is trading and where is the cash going to and from. Today you could see UJ down and stalled at 120.20 while EU and Gu (thus GJ) were soaring.

With released data and dow jones opening green I loaded the boat with carry trades. Zero tech to go in. Not because I knew it would happen. But because I knew that carry trades would be favoured in this picture.

Dumped the lots for profits using techis when the pairs stalled at expected resistances

Now back to the boring bottom fishing action...
What time frame/s do you use monitoring these 4 pairs "master cesar"?,...
And maybe your also using some simple indicators?,...
  • #12,758
  • May 15, 2007 2:55pm May 15, 2007 2:55pm
Quoting plicksboy
1- What time frame/s do you use monitoring these 4 pairs "master cesar"?,...
And 2- maybe your also using some simple indicators?,...
1- Several
2- Yes
  • #12,759
  • May 15, 2007 4:24pm May 15, 2007 4:24pm
im short this pair at 1.9866, 800k this baby should drop. if it goes up more thats a chance to get in at a better price.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #12,760
  • May 15, 2007 4:30pm May 15, 2007 4:30pm
let it go guys, there money on the table for everyone, emotions and money don't mix
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
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