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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #12,701
  • May 14, 2007 5:40pm May 14, 2007 5:40pm
Quoting SunTrader
Does anyone want to back up cable is going down/up with some reasons besides "it should" or "chart says so"?
everthing look short but my system telling me to stay out so there something going on that we don't know about mabe pound surprise everybody and goes up, who know's.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #12,702
  • May 14, 2007 5:46pm May 14, 2007 5:46pm
A silly question, Is the market open? I know it is opened, but I can see that most of the pairs are stuck to a prices that doesn't want to move a single pip up or down, which makes me feel that the pairs now have fixed ID number not a price number!!
  • #12,703
  • May 14, 2007 5:54pm May 14, 2007 5:54pm
any comment for clear diverrgence... ???
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  • #12,704
  • May 14, 2007 6:49pm May 14, 2007 6:49pm
i am waiting now for exit from this range: 1.9840 <> 1.9755
  • #12,705
  • May 14, 2007 7:03pm May 14, 2007 7:03pm
Quoting pino2
A silly question, Is the market open? I know it is opened, but I can see that most of the pairs are stuck to a prices that doesn't want to move a single pip up or down, which makes me feel that the pairs now have fixed ID number not a price number!!

At the time of your question no major market centers are open. New York (6:30pm), London(11:30pm), and Tokyo(7:30am) are all outside normal trading/workday hours (ie about 8:00-5:00). Much of the volume in the currency markets is contributed by companies making international transactions. When they aren't doing business, liquidity dries up. As for how much these types of transactions compose the currency markets compared to speculative or other types of trades, I have no idea. Maybe someone else can answer that question.

Found a link to show market hours:
http://www.forexmarkethours.com/
  • #12,706
  • May 14, 2007 7:37pm May 14, 2007 7:37pm
Quoting pino2
A silly question, Is the market open? I know it is opened, but I can see that most of the pairs are stuck to a prices that doesn't want to move a single pip up or down, which makes me feel that the pairs now have fixed ID number not a price number!!
**Quotes: U.S. CPI OUTLOOK: WE'VE GOT A TUG OF WAR BETWEEN THE HEALTH OF THE U.S. ECONOMY AND THE INFLATION OUTLOOK, SO TOMORROW'S NUMBER TAKES ON A BIT OF ADDED IMPORTANCE - ANALYST
**Note: John McCarthy at ING Capital Markets **

So, we have a war on US $ tomorrow.

From US equity market, here is my guess.

US equity market reversed today. The benchmarket SP 500 got pretty selling pressure this moring and went to red in the afternoon, that is a sign the number is not favor the the equity side. So the guess is core CPI number should be more than 0.2%. However, the in the last half hour, big guys (I don't mean it is Fed, but who knows) just bought a lot of SP futures and pushed the market up, that means even if the number is not that good, so what?

here is from forex News

**The dollar drifted lower slightly against the euro on concerns that a key inflation report due tomorrow may raise bets on a Fed rate cut in 2007. The foreign exchange market was quiet on Monday as there were few economic data. ...............Recall that the latest FOMC meeting minutes eased worries on an early rate cut. However, the weak-than-expected retail sales report released last Friday sparked speculations on a Fed rate cut within this year. The market will focus on the US Consumer Price Index report due Tuesday for more insights on the inflation outlook and the monetary policy in future.

US CPI is expected to rise 0.5% in April, lower than the 0.6% rise a month earlier. Excluding food and energy, core CPI is estimated to rise on a monthly rate of 0.2%. NY Fed manufacturing index is seen rise from 3.8 to 8 in May. Besides, US net long-term TIC flows due 9:00 EST tomorrow morning may increase from 58.1 billion to 75 billion in March. **

Here the speculators think Fed might cut rate for today's $ action.

Here is another quotes from Reuters.

**Eyes on CPI
Investors will also look to US CPI on Tuesday to gauge the strength of US inflationary pressures that could suggest whether the Fed will indeed start lowering rates later in the year.
”If we get another weak signal from the core (CPI) number that’s going to be a signal to sell the dollar. But it’s too soon to talk about a rate cut,” said Peter Frank, senior FX strategist at ABN AMRO.
“If growth stays sub-trend longer, the Fed is going to be nudging towards the first stage of taking out its tightening bias.”**
Here is from Fxstreet.com
**Today, the calendar looks empty, but for EMU industrial production, but this isn’t a market mover.
But things heat up however. On Tuesday the US CPI could be a very big issue. Any sign of inflation cooling down would be a dollar negative. Tuesday could be the key day as the Empire Fed survey and TIC data are also released.**
  • #12,707
  • May 14, 2007 7:52pm May 14, 2007 7:52pm
Quoting raheel23
any comment for clear diverrgence... ???
Believe or not,FX market doesnt has divergence issue....
divergence only affects....say momentum
  • #12,708
  • May 14, 2007 7:59pm May 14, 2007 7:59pm
Quoting winwise
Believe or not,FX market doesnt has divergence issue....
divergence only affects....say momentum

Frankly, most indicators are useless. The most bullshiiiit indicators are overbot or oversold............
  • #12,709
  • May 14, 2007 8:02pm May 14, 2007 8:02pm
Quoting winwise
Believe or not,FX market doesnt has divergence issue....
divergence only affects....say momentum
Don't think so. On MACD it works fine. The only indicator that I would recommend to use and the only purpose is for divergences.
  • #12,710
  • May 14, 2007 9:11pm May 14, 2007 9:11pm
Quoting wshhmm
Frankly, most indicators are useless. The most bullshiiiit indicators are overbot or oversold............
Yes indeed.

Overbought only means that. It can become much more overbought before going down. Vice versa for oversold.
  • #12,711
  • Edited 9:42pm May 14, 2007 9:29pm | Edited 9:42pm
Quoting SunTrader
Yes indeed.

Overbought only means that. It can become much more overbought before going down. Vice versa for oversold.
I have a friend who use an indicator that is very surprising me.

He didn't watch any indicators related with price or volume. He is still using an indicator that is very funny and makes me laugh always but it does work.

Before US market open, he goes to the street of Chicago city and listen to the bird sound. If he feel the sound happy, then he goes long for the index futures, if he feel the bird sound sad, he went to short. He never watch any news. However, he can win money consistently. Actually I got the secret. When he got wrong, he cut the loss immediately then reverse to other side, if wrong again, he reverse again until he is finally right. He got lots of small loss a day but won few big shots.

I call him a bird guy, funny? and last friday, when I shorted the SP futures and I was a little bit nervous for the monday open, he just told me, no worry, the bird sounds good. hehe

It is a real story.

and recently he is developing another indicator that is totally nonsense to me. This indicator called DouTou and KongTou (you may not understand the meaning). He checkes curves in a daily chart. If down curves are more than up curves, he goes short side.
  • #12,712
  • May 14, 2007 10:53pm May 14, 2007 10:53pm
Quoting wshhmm
I have a friend who use an indicator that is very surprising me.

He didn't watch any indicators related with price or volume. He is still using an indicator that is very funny and makes me laugh always but it does work.

Before US market open, he goes to the street of Chicago city and listen to the bird sound. If he feel the sound happy, then he goes long for the index futures, if he feel the bird sound sad, he went to short. He never watch any news. However, he can win money consistently. Actually I got the secret. When he got wrong, he cut the loss immediately then reverse to other side, if wrong again, he reverse again until he is finally right. He got lots of small loss a day but won few big shots.

I call him a bird guy, funny? and last friday, when I shorted the SP futures and I was a little bit nervous for the monday open, he just told me, no worry, the bird sounds good. hehe

It is a real story.

and recently he is developing another indicator that is totally nonsense to me. This indicator called DouTou and KongTou (you may not understand the meaning). He checkes curves in a daily chart. If down curves are more than up curves, he goes short side.

Sounds like a real winning formula.
  • #12,713
  • May 14, 2007 11:09pm May 14, 2007 11:09pm
Quoting wshhmm
I have a friend who use an indicator that is very surprising me.

He didn't watch any indicators related with price or volume. He is still using an indicator that is very funny and makes me laugh always but it does work.

Before US market open, he goes to the street of Chicago city and listen to the bird sound. If he feel the sound happy, then he goes long for the index futures, if he feel the bird sound sad, he went to short. He never watch any news. However, he can win money consistently. Actually I got the secret. When he got wrong, he cut the loss immediately then reverse to other side, if wrong again, he reverse again until he is finally right. He got lots of small loss a day but won few big shots.

I call him a bird guy, funny? and last friday, when I shorted the SP futures and I was a little bit nervous for the monday open, he just told me, no worry, the bird sounds good. hehe

It is a real story.

and recently he is developing another indicator that is totally nonsense to me. This indicator called DouTou and KongTou (you may not understand the meaning). He checkes curves in a daily chart. If down curves are more than up curves, he goes short side.
Really like it!

Moral: Cut loses and let profits run. MM is the key (even more than your system itself?... I think so).

Ill test his system, really! Thank you wshhmm!
  • #12,714
  • May 14, 2007 11:24pm May 14, 2007 11:24pm
Where is the GBP/USD going? Below 1.9760 or above 1.9850???
  • #12,715
  • May 15, 2007 2:06am May 15, 2007 2:06am
Quoting wshhmm
I have a friend who use an indicator that is very surprising me.

He didn't watch any indicators related with price or volume. He is still using an indicator that is very funny and makes me laugh always but it does work.

Before US market open, he goes to the street of Chicago city and listen to the bird sound. If he feel the sound happy, then he goes long for the index futures, if he feel the bird sound sad, he went to short. He never watch any news. However, he can win money consistently. Actually I got the secret. When he got wrong, he cut the loss immediately then reverse to other side, if wrong again, he reverse again until he is finally right. He got lots of small loss a day but won few big shots.

I call him a bird guy, funny? and last friday, when I shorted the SP futures and I was a little bit nervous for the monday open, he just told me, no worry, the bird sounds good. hehe

It is a real story.

and recently he is developing another indicator that is totally nonsense to me. This indicator called DouTou and KongTou (you may not understand the meaning). He checkes curves in a daily chart. If down curves are more than up curves, he goes short side.
this mean if birds happy u will long and if not u will short!!!
lool dont ask me to understand this bro and by the way u said u short SP then ur friend told ya dont be nervous the birds sounds good!!!!
  • #12,716
  • May 15, 2007 2:14am May 15, 2007 2:14am
depending how long your outlook........ up slightly, then down aggressive, the up trending again....... 6 months.. long
  • #12,717
  • May 15, 2007 2:20am May 15, 2007 2:20am
Quoting wshhmm
Before US market open, he goes to the street of Chicago city and listen to the bird sound. If he feel the sound happy, then he goes long for the index futures, if he feel the bird sound sad, he went to short.
Yes... But what indicators is the bird using?
  • #12,718
  • May 15, 2007 2:46am May 15, 2007 2:46am
Quoting Keys
Yes... But what indicators is the bird using?
lol, might the bird can understand the trading situation in the chicago exchange.
  • #12,719
  • May 15, 2007 3:13am May 15, 2007 3:13am
UK CPI - upside risks to GBP

UK CPI for April is released at 09:30 BST.

This is a very important release. CPI inflation has surprised to the
upside on several occasions thus far in 2007 and each time GBP moved markedly. We expect another upside surprise - our call is for a print of 3.0% compared with the market median of 2.8%. If it were to be 3.0% short sterling would be likely to sell off and GBP to appreciate. April is the first month that the full downward effects of the strong upward effects of domestic gas and electricity prices in
2006 dropping out of the annual inflation rate take place. We, the Bank of England and the consensus expect that this will help inflation fall back towards target, probably quite sharply - our forecast has CPI inflation back at 2.0% by July. But six months ago, everyone had expected some slowdown in inflation to have occurred already (though
not because of gas and electricity prices). In fact, inflation has
increased slightly. If it continues to surprise to the upside, even if for
seemingly one-off factors, that would suggest that inflationary
pressures are stronger than previously expected and would be consistent with higher interest rates and stronger GBP. If April's CPI surprises to the upside today it is likely to increase the market's worries that that will occur and could have a marked move.

Then tomorrow we have the quarterly BoE Inflation Report - another very important release for FX.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #12,720
  • May 15, 2007 3:18am May 15, 2007 3:18am
with equities looking a little soft this mng on the back of Chinese equity mkt fall, we may see some unwinding of carry this morning, considering so many people got burnt on Friday's bounce I think many players will be looking to buy dips, but this could exagertae the downmove as if we continue to fall they will panic sell as no one wants to miss out on any big bail out.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
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