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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #12,581
  • May 10, 2007 6:38pm May 10, 2007 6:38pm
After a few months off, what a day to start trading again

Only down 80pips ( ugggg ) so coulda been worse but...

That leg down at 4PM GMT was just a killer, 10 seconds after I got in just over 1.9800, I was holding long from 9816 for hours to to get stopped

Near 200pip range on a down day, not happened since early march


Then I wussed the last bounce of 9770 doh!! typical the 1 I wuss rocks LOL


Anyway, tommorow or today is another day


Good luck all!!!

Daily charts turned bearish, but thats as much as a prediction as I'll make, trend isn't well defined so play what you see.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #12,582
  • May 10, 2007 6:43pm May 10, 2007 6:43pm

Please go back to 1.9900 once more for my long's sake.

  • #12,583
  • Edited 7:25pm May 10, 2007 7:03pm | Edited 7:25pm
Well. I am an "all info avaiable" guy. I use techs but i dont use them to predict a far future like many. I use techs mostly to put my stops and targets, trade by trade, hourly targets to be more specific.

Its perfectly aceptable to use the techs to observe that a pair is starting to get heavy and there isnt more fuel to rise it, and that leaves a recharge(drop) in place. But when that kind of strategy are aplied to medium/long term charts there is no sense in claiming targets months away for 2 reasons.

The first, do you know if there was the same volume involved at the previous points? To you know if there were as many spectators or all the traders involved, then and now?

So how come is possible to someone do a divergence study with medium term outlooks if no one knows if there is more investment avaiable now than before.

And finally a question.

Please awnser it sincerely. If in the next month of data, the inflation in GB keeps rising and US keeps printing weak values. Do you serious believe that GBP USD will not go to 2.0000 again? Common..

Or at least the US stays the same but GB continues with yearly inflation near 3%. 1.9500 anyway ? Really? Is that how it works? Common tell the truth.

Can charts predict prices, sure. Can charts predict 2 or 3 months away economic strenght? If they can, this is not a profession this is future reading. So.. With a chart is possible to know how will be doing a country years from now? I better take my family to live there then...
  • #12,584
  • May 10, 2007 7:18pm May 10, 2007 7:18pm
As to the question of which is better techs or fundies the answer is neither...or either. I've known people who traded just one or the other exclusively and be successful. Most traders I know use a little of both. It's just what do you prefer? What's your strategy?

I knew a guy who kept only a record of psychological levels above and below where the price is at and just traded sentiment off the comparisons between expected and actual and the 'typical' implications of the difference between the two. He used as stop and a limit that was at least three times his stop and just ignored it till it ran it's course. He made money.

I've known guys who use just technical research never even paying attention to data releases or when they were. They just trade their system oblivious to fundies. They made money.

It's up to the particular trader. If it helps you trade, use it, if it doesn't ,lose it.
  • #12,585
  • May 10, 2007 7:35pm May 10, 2007 7:35pm
AMEN pipsta
everyone must has his own way

but as a daily trader what makes me monitor DJ & U/J and 10 commentary sites to make a trade in G/J??

even as long term trader, it needs once a week

the more simple your method the more it's success

as ex. I also knew a guy who's name is Alan Andrews LOL that develop a very simple method
Action & Reaction lines
I guess you knew it
anyone try it in forex long/short term and tell me what he found
  • #12,586
  • May 10, 2007 7:37pm May 10, 2007 7:37pm
Remember at the end of the day when all is said and done.


WE TRADE EXACTLY THE SAME CHARTS!!!!!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #12,587
  • May 10, 2007 7:39pm May 10, 2007 7:39pm
Quoting Warper
... when that kind of strategy are aplied to medium/long term charts there is no sense in claiming targets months away for 2 reasons.

The first, do you know if there was the same volume involved at the previous points? To you know if there were as many spectators or all the traders involved, then and now?

So how come is possible to someone do a divergence study with medium term outlooks if no one knows if there is more investment avaiable now than before.

And finally a question.

Please awnser it sincerely. If in the next month of data, the inflation in GB keeps rising and US keeps printing weak values. Do you serious believe that GBP USD will not go to 2.0000 again? Common..

Or at least the US stays the same but GB continues with yearly inflation near 3%. 1.9500 anyway ? Really? Is that how it works? Common tell the truth.

Can charts predict prices, sure. Can charts predict 2 or 3 months away economic strenght? If they can, this is not a profession this is future reading. So.. With a chart is possible to know how will be doing a country years from now? I better take my family to live there then...
Your assumpptions are incorrect simply because the market is not driven by economic fundamentals. It is driven by the laws of supply and demand which in turn are heavily based on traders' sentiment. And sentiment is not equal to fundamentals.
  • #12,588
  • May 10, 2007 7:42pm May 10, 2007 7:42pm
Maybe both sides are right ???

Just the Techie's will never understand the Fundie's and the Fundie's will never understand the Techie's side, if you try to prove 1 is better than the other you'll be going around in circles till then end of time, so get over it.



The only thing that counts, end of the day is, you make enough money to keep you happy!!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #12,589
  • May 10, 2007 8:18pm May 10, 2007 8:18pm
Igrok, im sorry but, you are always saying that, without a strong argument base.

I understand what you are saying, but when you get at the part...

suply vs demand = sentiment and sentiment is not equal to economic facts.

So please tell me, and i mean it sincerely. Where comes the sentiment then? (as i said i understand that until some point, the short term, like today, but talking in years.. that you have to explain)

You can tell me, "from the charts", but there are many ppl using fundamentals like banks and the news traders. But you say... no, no fundamental can change the market sentiment, so what changes? The heat in the summer? The spring and the flowers? Sentiments that comes from the air?

I dont want to joke but, the raw way that you talk about demand and suply make me think... well... market will buy euros because they have a sentiment of being a buyer. Why are they buying? Because they are in the mood of buying. Im sorry but this is what you are saying, so please explain better, where comes the sentiment?
  • #12,590
  • Edited 9:55pm May 10, 2007 9:37pm | Edited 9:55pm
Quoting Warper
Igrok, im sorry but, you are always saying that, without a strong argument base.

I understand what you are saying, but when you get at the part...

suply vs demand = sentiment and sentiment is not equal to economic facts.

So please tell me, and i mean it sincerely. Where comes the sentiment then? (as i said i understand that until some point, the short term, like today, but talking in years.. that you have to explain)

You can tell me, "from the charts", but there are many ppl using fundamentals like banks and the news traders. But you say... no, no fundamental can change the market sentiment, so what changes? The heat in the summer? The spring and the flowers? Sentiments that comes from the air?

I dont want to joke but, the raw way that you talk about demand and suply make me think... well... market will buy euros because they have a sentiment of being a buyer. Why are they buying? Because they are in the mood of buying. Im sorry but this is what you are saying, so please explain better, where comes the sentiment?
1. I don't need any base for an argument because I never argue. I just know how it works and you will also figure it out one day if survive in this business for long enough.
2. Bringing bank traders into this discussion is not a very good idea. The fact is that they mostly perform poorly when trade on their own behalf. I'm receiving every day current positioning from some banks - major FX participants. Their assumptions, analysis and trades mostly are good only for a freak show. No wonder, because the average career expectancy of an institutional trader is just 5 years. Inexperienced idiots mostly make trading decisions for such institutions. Have you ever seen any major FX dealing company or a bank that would offer more or less profitable managed account program? I have never seen any. And there is a reason for that. They don't know what they are doing and their management don't even believe that they can find a good trader to perform a task. They suck on the long run big time and are good only for vulturing on their clientele.
3. Reasons why a trader buys or sells a particular contract can be any other than just based on pure and straight economical fundamentals. It can be anything. From a random order coming out of an exporter that just needs to make some exchange for his own business to some personal reasons of a trader such as just a bad mood or a diarea, for example. I remember that once we sold 1.6 billion contract taking profits on the USD/JPY at once dropping this pair more than 100 pips just because we were running late for a party in Vegas. We didn't care about how the economy was doing at that particular moment. An yes, we were building this position for a long time based on my technical views with no regards to fundamentals. And in the process of building this position a call from a Credit Suisse trader came in because the guy just wanted to talk to those who have been buying his stops on a regular basis. His understanding of fundamentals could be million times better than mine but he still was a loser.
  • #12,591
  • May 10, 2007 9:47pm May 10, 2007 9:47pm
Hey guys and gals, any idea why the sell-off didn't continue into the Asian markets? Does this indicate a buy signal?
  • #12,592
  • May 10, 2007 10:24pm May 10, 2007 10:24pm
Quoting southernmind
Hey guys and gals, any idea why the sell-off didn't continue into the Asian markets? Does this indicate a buy signal?
May be this can answer ur question. Sure dont look good for the bulls. Time to stop "fishing" and start "bungee jumping"???
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  • #12,593
  • May 10, 2007 10:24pm May 10, 2007 10:24pm
Shrinking down a chart to fit would squeeze a lot of numbers to overlap.

But on a 4hour chart fib 38.2% retracement of 2.0131 / 1.9184 = 1.9769 and 61.8% of 2.0131 / 1.9545 = 1.9769 and 144% extended retracement of 1.9997 / 1.9841 = 1.9772 and Pitchfork drawn off high 2.0131 and 2 previous points = 1.9769

As well a Tom DeMark sequential 13 buy signal, so I believe we will see a at least a fair size retracement back up. Probably around 1.9860 area or equal to 38.2% ret of 1.9856

But as others have rightfully said, we each need to make our own trading decisions.
  • #12,594
  • May 10, 2007 10:49pm May 10, 2007 10:49pm
Now GU retracement at Fib 38.2, it GU break this level we will see 1.9668 next week.
  • #12,595
  • May 10, 2007 10:51pm May 10, 2007 10:51pm
I think is time to buy and I am going long with a target @ 1.9930
TRADE LIKE A MACHINE!
  • #12,596
  • May 10, 2007 10:58pm May 10, 2007 10:58pm
Quoting el_duende
Techincals work to a good degree but there problem is that they use past data to paint a likely picture in the future...
That's why I trade purely statistical models now, and I am a much happier person for it.

Every time I add technical or fundumental analysis to my trades it gets me nowhere, and at the end of the month my statistical trades outperform my manual tech/fund trades. Just as today. My statistical trade made 97 pips, catching most of the run, whereas my 2 manual trades ended up at 0.
  • #12,597
  • May 10, 2007 11:00pm May 10, 2007 11:00pm
Ditto...
  • #12,598
  • May 10, 2007 11:01pm May 10, 2007 11:01pm
At the mean time GU look like it will 'play' around Fib 38.2 to Fib 23.6.

Quoting froland
I think is time to buy and I am going long with a target @ 1.9930
  • #12,599
  • May 10, 2007 11:01pm May 10, 2007 11:01pm
Quoting SunTrader
Shrinking down a chart to fit would squeeze a lot of numbers to overlap.

But on a 4hour chart fib 38.2% retracement of 2.0131 / 1.9184 = 1.9769 and 61.8% of 2.0131 / 1.9545 = 1.9769 and 144% extended retracement of 1.9997 / 1.9841 = 1.9772 and Pitchfork drawn off high 2.0131 and 2 previous points = 1.9769

As well a Tom DeMark sequential 13 buy signal, so I believe we will see a at least a fair size retracement back up. Probably around 1.9860 area or equal to 38.2% ret of 1.9856

But as others have rightfully said, we each need to make our own trading decisions.
Great top veiw of cable..................
"Trade for sake of trading & not for winning or Lossing"
  • #12,600
  • May 11, 2007 12:03am May 11, 2007 12:03am
Quoting HonaForex
Great top veiw of cable..................

Please GU go up and i want to get the hell out. then i will short it.
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