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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #12,541
  • May 10, 2007 12:21pm May 10, 2007 12:21pm
Good to see you back cesar, whilst I am only a newbie member here have been guesting the last 3 months. I have always thought your comments to be great, too the point and well worth taking into account.

I for one hope to see you more often, but I do understand why if you do not come back
  • #12,542
  • May 10, 2007 12:28pm May 10, 2007 12:28pm
Quoting goonergonebad
Hey, welcome back...

Hope it's not a short stay.
It is...

Question is that I've seen this kind of configuration before. A long stand at the 4hr 250 EMA, then a 40-50 extension, long stall there and bounce off.

That's why I call it "reasonable".

USD negative news for tomorrow adds to this scenario. Couple of 4hr candles opening and sustaining 9770 area deny it
  • #12,543
  • May 10, 2007 12:30pm May 10, 2007 12:30pm
Oh you already know the news? Care to share your sourceS?... I don't see cable stopping until 1.9630. Then perhaps a correction. AuD will start its ride down tomorrow i believe. Eur has started.. Its time for the USD camp to attack.
  • #12,544
  • May 10, 2007 12:33pm May 10, 2007 12:33pm
Quoting Takisd
Oh you already know the news? Care to share your sourceS?... I don't see cable stopping until 1.9630. Then perhaps a correction. AuD will start its ride down tomorrow i believe. Eur has started.. Its time for the USD camp to attack.
whatever you say
  • #12,545
  • May 10, 2007 12:37pm May 10, 2007 12:37pm
Quoting cesarnc
It is...

Question is that I've seen this kind of configuration before. A long stand at the 4hr 250 EMA, then a 40-50 extension, long stall there and bounce off.

That's why I call it "reasonable".

USD negative news for tomorrow adds to this scenario. Couple of 4hr candles opening and sustaining 9770 area deny it
Thanks for the clarification Cesar. I for one am pleased you can see into the future. OK, sometimes there are mists, but, in the main you see clearly...
  • #12,546
  • May 10, 2007 12:43pm May 10, 2007 12:43pm
Quoting goonergonebad
Thanks for the clarification Cesar. I for one am pleased you can see into the future. OK, sometimes there are mists, but, in the main you see clearly...
I cannot see the future Gooner. No one can. I mean, most of us poor human bastards can't.

What I do is BUILDING SCENARIOS and setting the points at which THEY ARE DENIED. Then I verify them, then I jump in.

I'm not saying that cable WILL reverse from here because I am not an asshole to use the term WILL

I said that I'VE SEEN THIS CONFIGURATION BEFORE and IT IS REASONABLE FOR ME to expect Cable to turn back.

USD news tomorrow, COMING NEGATIVE AS FORECAST, will add to this scenario, otherwise will DENY IT.

I'm just posting this because you got my post in the other thread and put here. Please don't do that anymore.
  • #12,547
  • Edited 12:47pm May 10, 2007 12:46pm | Edited 12:47pm
Quoting cesarnc
I cannot see the future Gooner. No one can. I mean, most of us poor human bastards can't.

What I do is BUILDING SCENARIOS and setting the points at which THEY ARE DENIED. Then I verify them, then I jump in.

I'm not saying that cable WILL reverse from here because I am not an asshole to use the term WILL

I said that I'VE SEEN THIS CONFIGURATION BEFORE and IT IS REASONABLE FOR ME to expect Cable to turn back.

USD news tomorrow, COMING NEGATIVE AS FORECAST, will add to this scenario, otherwise will DENY IT.

I'm just posting this because you got my post in the other thread and put here. Please don't do that anymore.
Well said, point made, ignorant people (if they have some brains) will learn from your explanation. WAY TO GO....

Oops I just caught your last point. Sorry. Won't do it again.
  • #12,548
  • May 10, 2007 12:46pm May 10, 2007 12:46pm
Cable got just exactly to 38.2 Fibo at 1.9770 from the low of the year. I guess we will see the more important 50% tomorrow at around 1.9660.
  • #12,549
  • May 10, 2007 12:47pm May 10, 2007 12:47pm
Quoting benssol
I was the first to say it, so let me laugh along too.



I like the reaction of this guy...

Quoting gagiul
Well, god damn the british with their fcked up pound. why are they selling it just ahead of BOE rate hike? very pissed off... cable just retraced the whole move from yesterday.
What can i say? I can prove that i didnt opened a single long on GU today just to observe, and i shorted GY to protect my longs from the dip, after a double top earlier today. I had a far target for the long trades and i didnt want to close them, they are closed for sure now lol, but not a problem, the short order covered some of the looses. I guess im learning without loosing entire accounts like many ppl.

Anyway..

lol... Technicalls really rule the thing. I have to confess...

Is this Great Pound an incredible fake, that i, as European dont know?

So in conclusion. More 2 rate hikes since 9600 and the predictions arround here are 96 again as a standard. Funny currency, Really funny.

Im telling you.

Please check this site.. www.rivertheory.com/something-to-think-about

Basically this guy says that the Dolar is the biggest currency and other are overvalued fakes.

Is this guy right?

Lets think...

The rate hike was priced in ...ok.. very well..., and the "above" values of the "priced in price" used to be 2.0000 and above, so with the rate annoucement the price can drop on profit takes but with no major news, and all staying the same... the price should be like an average of the top and bottom of the consolidation fase. Not an incredible lower low.

I dont really want to know why are ppl shorting but if forex is all about being crazy against the fundamental odds, i will be too. But for now, i just want to understand how fake really are some of the currencies arround here.

Everyone said day after day. Average traders... News ppl... Economists.

The rate is priced in. The rate is priced in.

Now i say. No.. the rate is faked in lol. If the price returns to 1.99 and above in the next days. It will be a logical thing to happen and i guess that the market worked normally. If not.... im sorry bulls but this great pound its just as stronger as the yen is weak. Or in other words artificialy manipulated.

I just hope that one day, the rulers of the world dont loose their minds and put an end at this forex thing because the pairs do not really reflect whats happening.

Until then i will try to trade with reality as a guide.

Edit. Im receiving news now that gbp jpy is loosing on carry trade liquidation. But why?
  • #12,550
  • May 10, 2007 12:59pm May 10, 2007 12:59pm
What A Hellll, I Should Keep My Bearish Views.

Now I Still Hold Some Lots, So What Should I Do?

Cut?
  • #12,551
  • May 10, 2007 12:59pm May 10, 2007 12:59pm
Quoting Warper
I was the first to say it, so let me laugh along too.



I like the reaction of this guy...



What can i say? I can prove that i didnt opened a single long on GU today just to observe, and i shorted GY to protect my longs from the dip, after a double top earlier today. I had a far target for the long trades and i didnt want to close them, they are closed for sure now lol, but not a problem, the short order covered some of the looses. I guess im learning without loosing entire accounts like many ppl.

Anyway..

lol... Technicalls really rule the thing. I have to confess...

Is this Great Pound an incredible fake, that i, as European dont know?

So in conclusion. More 2 rate hikes since 9600 and the predictions arround here are 96 again as a standard. Funny currency, Really funny.

Im telling you.

Please check this site.. www.rivertheory.com/something-to-think-about

Basically this guy says that the Dolar is the biggest currency and other are overvalued fakes.

Is this guy right?

Lets think...

The rate hike was priced in ...ok.. very well..., and the "above" values of the "priced in price" used to be 2.0000 and above, so with the rate annoucement the price can drop on profit takes but with no major news, and all staying the same... the price should be like an average of the top and bottom of the consolidation fase. Not an incredible lower low.

I dont really want to know why are ppl shorting but if forex is all about being crazy against the fundamental odds, i will be too. But for now, i just want to understand how fake really are some of the currencies arround here.

Everyone said day after day. Average traders... News ppl... Economists.

The rate is priced in. The rate is priced in.

Now i say. No.. the rate is faked in lol. If the price returns to 1.99 and above in the next days. It will be a logical thing to happen and i guess that the market worked normally. If not.... im sorry bulls but this great pound its just as stronger as the yen is weak. Or in other words artificialy manipulated.

I just hope that one day, the rulers of the world dont loose their minds and put an end at this forex thing because the pairs do not really reflect whats happening.

Until then i will try to trade with reality as a guide.

Edit. Im receiving news now that gbp jpy is loosing on carry trade liquidation. But why?
C'mon now stop mucking about.

You are aren't you?

Yes - You are aren't you?

You,

you,

you're "Jose Mourinho" aren't you????
  • #12,552
  • May 10, 2007 1:01pm May 10, 2007 1:01pm
http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u...ipboard021.jpg


http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u...de007/ggg1.gif


first graph (2 hour) shows we are near bottom of current trend channel

2nd graph (1 hour) shows lower bollinger band hit and RSI below 30 level showing oversold

What I am waiting for on a 30 min or 1 hour chart is a divergence signal to confirm a long entry.

Also on a Euro chart we are at bottom of a downtrend channel so may see move North

Also supporting potential long is we are due a retrace soon in my eyes.

I have slightly jumped gun and entered long at 1.9772 as I should wait for the divergence signal to confirm entry
  • #12,553
  • May 10, 2007 1:04pm May 10, 2007 1:04pm
Quoting goonergonebad
you're "Jose Mourinho" aren't you????

lololololol

You got me!!!!! Damn.

How can you tell?

Thats not a bad thing right? =)
  • #12,554
  • May 10, 2007 1:08pm May 10, 2007 1:08pm
Quoting Igrok
Cable got just exactly to 38.2 Fibo at 1.9770 from the low of the year. I guess we will see the more important 50% tomorrow at around 1.9660.
Please can you identify which time period your fibo comes from?

I and probably others on this thread are relatively new to fibonacci. I, for example, just plot a retracement of most recent high low or reverse.

Other fibo strategies would help us all I'm sure.

Thnx.
  • #12,555
  • May 10, 2007 1:09pm May 10, 2007 1:09pm
http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u...007/ggg122.gif

theres that divergence signal on hourly chart i was talking about, the bar with the orange bit
  • #12,556
  • May 10, 2007 1:10pm May 10, 2007 1:10pm
Quoting Warper
lololololol

You got me!!!!! Damn.

How can you tell?

Thats not a bad thing right? =)
No. Not when you take it in the spirit it was meant in. You handsome devil you....
  • #12,557
  • May 10, 2007 1:30pm May 10, 2007 1:30pm
People, I'm sure everyone appreciates the charts you post. Especially the less experienced traders. It's just that the size of them is getting out of control. Either grab them in a smaller size or cut them down. It really messes with the margins on the side and makes it hard to surf the site when I have to open the browser to accommodate just for the charts. Please don't stop posting them. Just be considerate of the other posters. When you post them merlin put a size limit for a reason. Please respect his wishes since he is kind enough to provide this space for our benefit.

I also took a nervous long from 9774. I figured with so much ground taken today that there should be some retrace off it. With the touch on the 50ema on the daily chart and the price outside of the bolband on that same daily chart there is a good chance the low has been set for the day. Let's hope so. I'm going to manually stop it out if needed and my target is open at the moment. I'm thinking 9850ish area should be a spot that I'd be ready to take profit. Price action will dictate.
  • #12,558
  • May 10, 2007 1:31pm May 10, 2007 1:31pm
Quoting Warper
I was the first to say it, so let me laugh along too.



Anyway..

Im telling you.

The rate is priced in. The rate is priced in.

Now i say. No.. the rate is faked in lol.
If the price returns to 1.99 and above in the next days. It will be a logical thing to happen and i guess that the market worked normally. If not.... im sorry bulls but this great pound its just as stronger as the yen is weak. Or in other words artificialy manipulated.

I just hope that one day, the rulers of the world dont loose their minds and put an end at this forex thing because the pairs do not really reflect whats happening.

Until then i will try to trade with reality as a guide.

Edit. Im receiving news now that gbp jpy is loosing on carry trade liquidation. But why?
LOLLLLLLL

as charts says I was a bear from yestarday @ 70 and add to my short @ 41, 05, 833 LOLLLLLL

and as funds says the Queen is pregnant from her BullFriend and VIVA Blair
LOLLLLL

so is it still boring?!
Attached Image
  • #12,559
  • May 10, 2007 1:37pm May 10, 2007 1:37pm
What size limits are they?

Im not sure as I host mine on photobucket and link them in with IMG command

On photobucket they look smaller in size but seem to go bigger when they appear on this forum
  • #12,560
  • May 10, 2007 1:39pm May 10, 2007 1:39pm
Quoting cesarnc
I cannot see the future Gooner. No one can. I mean, most of us poor human bastards can't.

What I do is BUILDING SCENARIOS and setting the points at which THEY ARE DENIED. Then I verify them, then I jump in.

I'm not saying that cable WILL reverse from here because I am not an asshole to use the term WILL

I said that I'VE SEEN THIS CONFIGURATION BEFORE and IT IS REASONABLE FOR ME to expect Cable to turn back.

USD news tomorrow, COMING NEGATIVE AS FORECAST, will add to this scenario, otherwise will DENY IT.

I'm just posting this because you got my post in the other thread and put here. Please don't do that anymore.
He that stops and kicks at every dog that barks at him WILL never get any where!
TRADE LIKE A MACHINE!
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