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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #12,401
  • May 9, 2007 9:31am May 9, 2007 9:31am
Quoting m_j_1984
Cesarnc left this thread.
Hib and I keep telling you but you don't believe us, Cesar... you have quite a following here at Forex Factory.
  • #12,402
  • May 9, 2007 9:36am May 9, 2007 9:36am
Quoting leelee75k
someone give me a lesson on how to do those screen shots and upload them here... or my opinions will continue without any charts to show how i formulate them.
1. You can use "print screen" to print what's showing on your chart, then paste it and edit its size in Paint (or any other graphic software), save it as *.png better for size and colors.

2. Or, if using Metatrader, you can "save as picture" (Menu "File") the active chart and set the size there too.

3. Then, after writing your post, scroll down and click on "manage attachments" (button under "attach files"), a pop-up window will appear where you can upload your images directly, or if you prefer to upload the images to a free imageserver like photobucket or imageshack, you place there the URL.

After this, just click on "submit reply" and voilą
  • #12,403
  • May 9, 2007 9:40am May 9, 2007 9:40am
Quoting leelee75k
someone give me a lesson on how to do those screen shots and upload them here... or my opinions will continue without any charts to show how i formulate them.
You need to download a free screen capture program.
Try this link:

http://www.faststone.org/FSCaptureDetail.htm

After you have captured your screen shot and saved it to disk (either as a file type jpg or gif) you can then create a post on the forum you wish to share the image with and upload your image to your post. You do this by clicking on the paper clip icon at the time of typing your post. This opens another window where you can browse to your saved image, highlight it, open it and then upload it.
Then exit the upload window and preview your post to make sure you have uploaded it correctly. Then simply submit your post as normal.

Hope this helps.
  • #12,404
  • May 9, 2007 9:41am May 9, 2007 9:41am
Can someone suggest an indicator for MT4 that is good at spotting price consolidation areas?
  • #12,405
  • May 9, 2007 9:43am May 9, 2007 9:43am
Yep its a 2 hour chart,

Look on this daily chart and you will see we are in a long term up trend, in the top right of the chart you will see some very small lines which is the current down trend which the previous post above in more detail (2 hour chart)

People have mentioned that 1.95 area may be hit and this is the main reason. Price may drop down to 1.95 area before cable gos on to make new highs.

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u...board02day.jpg
  • #12,406
  • May 9, 2007 9:50am May 9, 2007 9:50am
Quoting leelee75k
someone give me a lesson on how to do those screen shots and upload them here... or my opinions will continue without any charts to show how i formulate them.
You hit "ALT + Print Screen" buttons at the same time and then paste the image into something like paint or a more advanced tool.

You then save the image (probably as jpg) and when you post there is a "manage attachments" button which allows you to browse your drive, find the image and upload it.
  • #12,407
  • May 9, 2007 10:09am May 9, 2007 10:09am
Quoting el_duende
Yep its a 2 hour chart,

Look on this daily chart and you will see we are in a long term up trend, in the top right of the chart you will see some very small lines which is the current down trend which the previous post above in more detail (2 hour chart)

People have mentioned that 1.95 area may be hit and this is the main reason. Price may drop down to 1.95 area before cable gos on to make new highs.

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u...board02day.jpg
Thanks for the explanation el duende.

Presumably, after the interest rate announcements today and tomorrow, it could just as easily go directly up to set new heights. Or, am I unaware of another key piece of technical information, such as an ancient fibo or trend line which means the market has to adhere to cyclical formalities first?

BTW, I am not being perverse or anything else, just very interested to learn.
  • #12,408
  • May 9, 2007 10:38am May 9, 2007 10:38am
40 minutes to go. So, what's everybody's game plan for the news break?

I am planning for a 28 pips spread break-out setup from the price of 15 minutes before the news, if the price stays where it is right now, which is right in the middle of my support-resistance lines.
  • #12,409
  • May 9, 2007 10:39am May 9, 2007 10:39am
well, I do believe we will test the previous highs. I think we are in a B wave up as shown by my daily chart. I say it is a B wave as it is displaying typical B wave charactersitics ie not technically very strong and creating some confusion in the market. I can't say when we will see the 2.0132 area but I think it may be by Friday or early next week.

I may be wrong, but the arguments, fundamental evidence as well as technicals and trends point in this direction. Emotion is the only bear I see at present.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: B up.jpg Size: 39 KB
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #12,410
  • May 9, 2007 10:41am May 9, 2007 10:41am
Hi everyone,
If there is a hike to 5.50% GBP/USD might go down like 100 pips, and if there is a cut to 5.00% GBP/USD might go up like 100 pips, what if there is no change for the rate and kept 5.25%, what can be the scenario
Note: it is not a must that prices will go up/down 100 pips if any change occur, so how about no change, also hawkish or dovish comments can affect the prices, anybody have an idea if rate kept as it is?
  • #12,411
  • May 9, 2007 11:03am May 9, 2007 11:03am
Interesting it hasnt broken the 2.0000 price barrier.

Likewise, the move started mostly during US session, perhaps not much up move will be seen later, ie priced in?

Unless Ben is extra dovish, then USD would fall further. EURUSD did not rise very much. it must have its own issues as EURJPY is sold out.
  • #12,412
  • May 9, 2007 11:27am May 9, 2007 11:27am
Listening to the FED announcement on the CNBC channel rates have stayed the same at 5.25% as expected. This is already priced into the market.

The important bit I believe in the FED statement is that they are most worried about increasing inflation and will be focusing on this the most among other factors. This should be good for dollar ie if inflation goes up so do interest rates.

So overall not much has changed except maybe a slight bias for positive dollar in my opinion.

Looking at chart price is going down in cable which reflects this. Trend from 18th April is still on until tomorow at least
  • #12,413
  • May 9, 2007 11:44am May 9, 2007 11:44am
Statement was usd positive alright that goes in the tone of "we wont be cutting rates any time soon!". It has been widely expected last Q4 that Mar/May this year will have a rate cut - now the expectation is sometime after august.

1.9930 is currently the support. D1 MACD was suggesting earlier that the upper 1.99 was a turning point for the bull/bear tag (ie, uptrend continuation); but now it dropped back to bear line. I would wait for more development to go long/short.


Ok.. now that it dropped, perhaps its time for the bulls to buy the dips - afterall, there are speculation of a 50bp rate hike from boe tommorrow.
  • #12,414
  • May 9, 2007 11:52am May 9, 2007 11:52am
Quoting BurgerKing
Statement was usd positive alright that goes in the tone of "we wont be cutting rates any time soon!". It has been widely expected last Q4 that Mar/May this year will have a rate cut - now the expectation is sometime after august.

1.9930 is currently the support. D1 MACD was suggesting earlier that the upper 1.99 was a turning point for the bull/bear tag (ie, uptrend continuation); but now it dropped back to bear line. I would wait for more development to go long/short.

Ok.. now that it dropped, perhaps its time for the bulls to buy the dips - afterall, there are speculation of a 50bp rate hike from boe tommorrow.
If you go long, hope that expectation does not generate GBP selling if rate hike is only 25bp, as this 1/4 point hike seems to be already priced in pound. Just a thought.
Personally, I will wait till the announcement to go in.
  • #12,415
  • May 9, 2007 12:03pm May 9, 2007 12:03pm
"Early bird gets the early worm".

This is both a positive and a negative statement. If you are the bird, its good for you. but if you are the worm, then its bad.

Looking at other GBP crosses, its nice to know that GBPJPY is boosting GBP.
Hmmm having said that GBPJPY is precariously stalling for the pass few days.. correction coming?
  • #12,416
  • May 9, 2007 12:06pm May 9, 2007 12:06pm
I think the political situation of Gordan Brown about to take over the leadership may have an impact on interest rate - rate hikes will not help him in his new start as he is renowned for his UK great economy and he needs all the good publicity he can at present.

You may say the BOE is independent of the government which is the official line. However not many people know 4 members of the MPC are hand picked by Mr Brown himself! So I cannot see a 50 base point hike purely due to political ramifications if it did. 25 base point is widely being excepted.

Mortgage approvals are lowest for a year as well reported today by BOE so rise of interest rates will not help.

So I believe 25 base point hike will happen tomorrow which is already priced in to market which makes cable unchanged or slightly bearish IMO. With positive FED report for dollar could mean cable being bearish for a while.

Lets see what tomorrow brings!
  • #12,417
  • May 9, 2007 12:20pm May 9, 2007 12:20pm
Buy the rumour sell the fact. Should the BOE raise rates tomorrow, I would expect a large gbp sell off from all the speculators after the initial news spike.

New highs? I don't see them coming in the near term.
  • #12,418
  • May 9, 2007 1:30pm May 9, 2007 1:30pm
Where are you Cesarnc?
Peeping on bull or bear?
To be or not to be, that's the question
  • #12,419
  • May 9, 2007 2:24pm May 9, 2007 2:24pm
Wow! Classic bull flag - watch for upside breakout!

Quoting el_duende
Yep its a 2 hour chart,

Look on this daily chart and you will see we are in a long term up trend, in the top right of the chart you will see some very small lines which is the current down trend which the previous post above in more detail (2 hour chart)

People have mentioned that 1.95 area may be hit and this is the main reason. Price may drop down to 1.95 area before cable gos on to make new highs.

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u...board02day.jpg
  • #12,420
  • May 9, 2007 2:25pm May 9, 2007 2:25pm
Quoting hoezhiens
Where are you Cesarnc?
Peeping on bull or bear?
Hey, I'm just in/out of here from now on.

It happens that I feel consolidation periods hard enough to trade (compared to trendy times) as to allow myself to get even more confused with the myriad of predictions herewith.

I mean, every 50 pips down from 9950 and 9500 pops up as "next target". Every 50 pips up from 9500 and "large selloff is in the oven".

I've lost a good amount of cash in my beginning in forex by following those predictions very well backed up on 25th Century's Quantum Mechanics Developed NASA indicators. Also missed a lot of pips my leaving my view aside to follow other's.

Now I will just pop in once and while as to check whether or not there's some view that might inteligently challenge my view. My times of attempting to be of some help here is done.

Good luck you all on tomorrows BOE. There's gonna be some party to last for days...
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