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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #12,361
  • May 9, 2007 4:14am May 9, 2007 4:14am
Hi

what do you think about FOMC impacts on cable ?

thanks
  • #12,362
  • May 9, 2007 4:17am May 9, 2007 4:17am
Quoting PandoraBox
4h chart already cross the downtrend line.

You're looking at the daily
  • #12,363
  • May 9, 2007 5:12am May 9, 2007 5:12am
Quoting dd33
Got uneasy with the bearish situation rite now. Give a check on the USD index and turns out still below 82. No wonder cesarnc is still so bullish. With USD still sinking and GBP having a probability of another .25 hike other than tomorrow's .25 hike. GBP still have a potential bullish power.

But if we look at the charts.. Short terms are showing downtrend.

Confused.. confused... confused.. better stay on the sideways for now.

I agree. that is why my criteria is to short only above 2.000. And to short when opportunity arises (indicators, fundies).

But I prefer to short EUR and CAD vs USD. These are swap Positive positions that would help reduce "tension" should the trade went long term.

How high can EURUSD go? 1.4000 is about 300 pips only from current level. This would be better trade as the up side risk is smaller than the more volatile GBPUSD trade.
  • #12,364
  • May 9, 2007 5:36am May 9, 2007 5:36am
Quoting dd33
Got uneasy with the bearish situation rite now. Give a check on the USD index and turns out still below 82. No wonder cesarnc is still so bullish. With USD still sinking and GBP having a probability of another .25 hike other than tomorrow's .25 hike. GBP still have a potential bullish power.

But if we look at the charts.. Short terms are showing downtrend.

Confused.. confused... confused.. better stay on the sideways for now.


Regarding GBP/USD and Euro/USD, these will be ranging
until most of the major announcements have been made
tomorrow. We may see definite direction by 9 a.m. EST
Thursday. Low activity indicates that most traders are
waiting for news results.


  • #12,365
  • May 9, 2007 5:50am May 9, 2007 5:50am
2nd attempt to break above 1.9940

break or bust.
  • #12,366
  • May 9, 2007 5:59am May 9, 2007 5:59am
Does anyone know what is making GBP go up so well right now, other than the breach of 9925 resistamce and getting into 9950 that was the base camp for 2.0000+ attack in the last week?
  • #12,367
  • May 9, 2007 6:01am May 9, 2007 6:01am
Opportunity to try a sell at 1.9950 - may see a bounce off top line of downtrend channel formed since 18th April. Have small stop loss, target 1.9890 area and beyond
  • #12,368
  • May 9, 2007 6:04am May 9, 2007 6:04am
Quoting x3m
Does anyone know what is making GBP go up so well right now, other than the breach of 9925 resistamce and getting into 9950 that was the base camp for 2.0000+ attack in the last week?

Just a few scouts going out in front to make sure the path is clear for the running of the bulls later.
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #12,369
  • May 9, 2007 6:06am May 9, 2007 6:06am
Quoting x3m
Does anyone know what is making GBP go up so well right now, other than the breach of 9925 resistamce and getting into 9950 that was the base camp for 2.0000+ attack in the last week?

It may be price factoring. USD will maintain rates and I'm bias towards GDP raising rates. We'll see in a few hours on the first factor. I've been long since 1.9880s (very excited about this setup) and not planning on closing till NY session on Friday.
  • #12,370
  • May 9, 2007 6:31am May 9, 2007 6:31am
Quoting x3m
I have BUY STOP 1.9928 and SELL STOP 1.9877 as suggested by my automated system, but I am considering shifting the 1.9928 a bit further up to 1.9942 which will put it above the highs of downtrend line. The 1.9877 is safely below the lows of the uptrend line and I am good with this one.

This is my view of a breakout from the latest consolidation area for today's London session.
I did not change the setup so Buy was opened at 9928. TP at 9963 for +35. I am expecting it to go back to 9950 to consolidate, but if the run continues... well, I will probably kick myself in the butt but do nothing for the rest of the day. :-)

Good luck for those who's got more nerve than me and are still staying long!
  • #12,371
  • May 9, 2007 6:36am May 9, 2007 6:36am
Yikes - Didnt expect cable to rise as violently as that - some people speculating their may be a rate cut later?
  • #12,372
  • May 9, 2007 6:40am May 9, 2007 6:40am
how much higher can cable go today?
  • #12,373
  • May 9, 2007 6:47am May 9, 2007 6:47am
Technically to 2.0035. Fundamentally, it is already to high. These are the reasons I bailed out.
  • #12,374
  • May 9, 2007 6:48am May 9, 2007 6:48am
20015-20 range is tops for today I would think, but i tp at 9995, why risk it?

just wish the euro would follow suit with some bigger gains.
  • #12,375
  • May 9, 2007 6:48am May 9, 2007 6:48am
wow

I had a buy stop on 1.9995 base on my system . now it is activated and ......
  • #12,376
  • May 9, 2007 6:57am May 9, 2007 6:57am
There are regularly mixed opinions on this forum about whether fundamentals are important or not.

For me, today's rapid hike in Cable in relation to the the milder hike for the Euro$ shows that speculation about rate increases does affect any pair. The fact that UK interest rate will be more attractive than Eurozone rate and the possibility that US might even drop their rate proves this.

Therefore, can someone please explain why we will see 1.95ish this month?
  • #12,377
  • May 9, 2007 7:06am May 9, 2007 7:06am
no, because i don't see 95ish this month and US will "probably" only drop rates in the fall, depending on how housing sales goes this summer (my opinion only)
  • #12,378
  • May 9, 2007 7:06am May 9, 2007 7:06am
what is your idea about market now ? it will attemet to break 2.000 today and before FOMC ?
  • #12,379
  • May 9, 2007 7:15am May 9, 2007 7:15am
no idea, it might, it's only 20 pips or so away
i think we'll stay above if not around 9950 pre rate decision
and euro above 3550 range too.
  • #12,380
  • May 9, 2007 7:19am May 9, 2007 7:19am
Price does not care where someone's MA is. Where Stoch/RSI/Macd is rolling over/turning up. What time frame a chart is at.

I think it will go up because of ..... Well I think it will go down because of ..... The fundamentals say such and such.

Meaningless dribble. Price rules. Put up a chart based on the timeframe you trade and explain in details, otherwise why bother.

If on the timeframe a trader is looking at there are Higher Lows it is in a Uptrend. If there are Lower Highs it is in a Downtrend. All discussion should follow that.

Also do you care what my targets are. No. At least you shouldn't.

One thing else, why are some many being apologetic. Did somebody say we aren't allowed to have our own opinions.

It is because of a lot of this that Cesar left, the trader who kept this topic alive the last 6 months - at least.
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