Cable Update (GBPUSD)

this ain't no CPI hahaha ka blowieee

TP set at 12250 off for a meeting will add SL if we go over 122

OK. US CPI came in, in line with expectation, both headline and core. So, what are you going to do with it?

Let's dive in. Headline annualized 6%, core at 5.5%. There're some sticky components: food at home +10.2%, electricity and piped gas, averaged over +13%, transport +14.6%. Fed could say, those are volatile components, we focus on core.

Core is still above 5% YoY. Far from Fed target of 2%. Let's just say, rates stay at current level, 4.75%. What do we expect? Most likely, inflation is going to stay sticky for a while, then accelerate, if interest rates continue to stay below inflation rate. Now, if Fed raises rates to 5.5%, which means another +75 bps hike, then we could possibly see inflation core drops to 4.7% or lower. We're talking about CPI core, PCE core already at 4.6%.

Now, the tricky bit is to keep inflation, not just low, but gives it no chance to rise. So, what will the Fed do? More hikes, likely.

Fed really does care if some parts of the economy breaks. They've solution for that. My view is, Fed will continue hiking, into and well past the restrictive territory, and only back down, when inflation is below 3%. There're stopgap measures, they're not worry. Markets may be nervous, anxious, panic. All is calm at the Fed.

One thing that is quite certain with Fed is, as Powell said, they're unlikely to return to 50 bps after "downgrading" to 25 bps. If we follow this line of expectation, then we could well see a pause is unlikely, since Fed would not do a pause, then hike again. That's off the table. So, Fed would probably be very careful, when sending signals to the market. In other words, if Fed steps down to 25 bps, it'll stay at 25 bps until they pause. Once they have paused, it's a matter of time before they cut. So, I would say, we can greatly expect 25 bps in March, May, June and possibly even July '23.

Let's see if Powell repeats the statement "historical records cautioned against prematurely loosening policy". That will do.

Nothing to see here. It's time for me to get out to enjoy some sunshine. See you tomorrow, for US retail sales.

Slowly we are rising to 1.2400 as I earlier said. Not even news can stop GU from getting to 1.2400

Power drop during news. Turn my +20,jump my break even and stop me out at -20.

The pound-dollar has already risen, so instead, the euro-dollar pinch hitter long.

For longs a decent break over 122 is needed. 12230 be a good area for a move towards 123

So I'm pulling out here @ 2199 with +47 pips.
Will look to take a reverse position simply because the 2100 magnet is bound to be up with its antics, and also due to the weekly opening gap that's yet to be filled up.
SHORT position loading...

GBPUSD update
1H, double top pattern

Very true, but at the moment market is pricing in a pause keep that in mind.

Still in the range, no positions yet.

Protected🍀

Still selling the spikes. Lets see if London fix takes it up there again, or higher.

122 rejected it seems good and proper.. adding long to hedge and reduce deficit

I gave up on EURUSD and went short on GBPUSD. Decided that the high on the left could not be crossed.

Shorting on pullbacks.

Still valid