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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #735,941
  • Mar 14, 2023 2:56am Mar 14, 2023 2:56am
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} CPI y/y- 6.0% consensus (BLS) FED Inflation nowcasting- 6.2% Truflation- 4.56%
The bottom line is it isn't the 2% rate the FED still wants!
Now that bank accounts are protected the path is cleared for more rate hikes!
  • #735,942
  • Mar 14, 2023 2:57am Mar 14, 2023 2:57am
DX
if we stay above 103.450 = buy usd
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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #735,943
  • Mar 14, 2023 3:04am Mar 14, 2023 3:04am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} The bottom line is it isn't the 2% rate the FED still wants! Now that bank accounts are protected the path is cleared for more rate hikes!
The SVB crisis made the Fed realize that the Fed's goal is not only to keep inflation at 2%, but also to maintain the stability of financial markets.
Just follow the trend.
  • #735,944
  • Mar 14, 2023 3:15am Mar 14, 2023 3:15am
Quoting lucaswalliam
{quote} The SVB crisis made the Fed realize that the Fed's goal is not only to keep inflation at 2%, but also to maintain the stability of financial markets.
I don't agree. If that was the case the FED would not have put the extra credit facilities in place to protect banks heavily invested in treasuries from collapse. These new credit facilities open the path for more rate increases. The FED has always paid lip service to maintain the stability of financial markets but look at what has happened over the past 12-18 months! It has been a failed objective! Sure the markets did not collapse but has that been because of the FED or in spite of the FED!
  • #735,945
  • Mar 14, 2023 3:36am Mar 14, 2023 3:36am
Somebody take out the plug that they have from behind!! the one of the 1.2150, because of there! they do not pass!; 30" from the opening and do not exceed 15 pips, and one of the resistances is 1.24 next month if there is no slope in January! I mean the wise men!!
  • #735,946
  • Mar 14, 2023 3:37am Mar 14, 2023 3:37am
And that is the end of my trading session.

Will return back for NY session.
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Intraday only.
  • #735,947
  • Mar 14, 2023 3:39am Mar 14, 2023 3:39am
come on mister uj
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yes yes yes
  • #735,948
  • Mar 14, 2023 3:53am Mar 14, 2023 3:53am
hi guys,

as long price above 1.204X it seems like it will be very difficult to marry to a short before the CPI numbers, so why bother?
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  • #735,949
  • Mar 14, 2023 3:56am Mar 14, 2023 3:56am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} I don't agree. If that was the case the FED would not have put the extra credit facilities in place to protect banks heavily invested in treasuries from collapse. These new credit facilities open the path for more rate increases. The FED has always paid lip service to maintain the stability of financial markets but look at what has happened over the past 12-18 months! It has been a failed objective! Sure the markets did not collapse but has that been because of the FED or in spite of the FED!
I think the fact that the CPI has gone from a high of 9.1% to 6.4% now is an indication that the rate hike is working. Although it is still far from the 2% target.
Sorry, fundamental research is not my strong point and this is as far as I can go.
Just follow the trend.
  • #735,950
  • Mar 14, 2023 4:04am Mar 14, 2023 4:04am
GBPUSD and DX update
small hesitation, but still over the S
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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #735,951
  • Mar 14, 2023 4:05am Mar 14, 2023 4:05am
Shorts from last night are still running, seems 12140 to be a support level for time being. The 5 mins between 8.28 and 8.33 again quite inconclusive maybe we are in range territory until USA data
Insane in the Brain..
  • #735,952
  • Mar 14, 2023 4:13am Mar 14, 2023 4:13am
bulls have the advantage now.
nearest interest levels i see:
supply 1.22
demand 1.214
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  • #735,953
  • Mar 14, 2023 4:26am Mar 14, 2023 4:26am
Maybe daily pivot around 12138 as point of bounce up? Will TP there from my shorts and swing trade up from there

SL set at b/e 12170
Insane in the Brain..
  • #735,954
  • Edited 5:52am Mar 14, 2023 4:29am | Edited 5:52am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} The bottom line is it isn't the 2% rate the FED still wants! Now that bank accounts are protected the path is cleared for more rate hikes!
Agreed.
But many tier-2 banks are highly overleveraged, their debt to equity ratio arent 1:1.
More rate meaning more cost of borrowing, which could still caused a problem for these banks in the future.

For now market priced in no change(49%) to 25 bps (51%) FOMC rate hike[CME-fed watch]. We will wait and see how the market unfold and price in the development in the bank crisis and also Powell was Hawkish last weeks (Powell testified),so more rate hike is still possible.
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #735,955
  • Mar 14, 2023 4:41am Mar 14, 2023 4:41am
Quoting BeeTogether
Maybe daily pivot around 12138 as point of bounce up? Will TP there from my shorts and swing trade up from there SL set at b/e 12170
This small gap is acting as a liquidity pull, I might be tempted to throw one bull in the slaughter house after 4H closes and see if it got any bear marks on it!
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Face 'ur fears & tame 'ur greed
  • #735,956
  • Mar 14, 2023 4:46am Mar 14, 2023 4:46am
Quoting JereMi256
{quote} This small gap is acting as a liquidity pull, I might be tempted to throw one bull in the slaughter house after 4H closes and see if it got any bear marks on it! {image}
damn thing is yo-yoing and the 12150-60 area
let’s see how it goes either I break even or bank enough for one day if it hits 12130
Insane in the Brain..
  • #735,957
  • Mar 14, 2023 4:49am Mar 14, 2023 4:49am
shorting fans club
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  • #735,958
  • Mar 14, 2023 4:51am Mar 14, 2023 4:51am
Yesterday after two successful trades in the direction of the trend, of course I started doing nonsense and instead of making a small profit in a risky trade against the trend, I stayed and instead of being in the spirit of $200, I ended the day with a loss of $124 and I also raised the trade in my life and warned that the trend changed
stupit stupite stupite
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yes yes yes
  • #735,959
  • Mar 14, 2023 4:53am Mar 14, 2023 4:53am
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yes yes yes
  • #735,960
  • Mar 14, 2023 4:54am Mar 14, 2023 4:54am
Quoting BeeTogether
{quote} damn thing is yo-yoing and the 12150-60 area let’s see how it goes either I break even or bank enough for one day if it hits 12130
That only means one thing, they are cooking something big. We should tread carefully going into the news.
Face 'ur fears & tame 'ur greed
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