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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #12,321
  • May 8, 2007 5:49pm May 8, 2007 5:49pm
I doubt ill take the trade that far down though. Ill probably end up cutting it off at around 1.96 cuz im a sissy. haha better safe than broke.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #12,322
  • May 8, 2007 6:01pm May 8, 2007 6:01pm
I pity the poor folks who are trying to make money in Forex and wind up disillusioned and totally confused by the Fibs, Pivot Points, Head & Shoulders, Trend Lines, etc.

To those fine folks, may I share a little secret? After going through all the indicators, drawing all the Trend Lines, reading all the forecasts, opinions, etc., you'll be no better off than the trader who selects one simple indicator for confirmation and STICKS WITH IT!

Here's an example:

Open a 10-minute candlestick chart
Select a 5-Period, Simple Moving Average, Close Price, and make it Blue
Select a 10-Period, Weighted Moving Average, Close Price, and make it Red

When the Blue line crosses down below the Red line = SELL
When the Blue line crosses up above the Red line = BUY

When the price starts going against you, but the MA's are still above/below as they were when you entered = STAY with the trade.

When the MA's cross against you, CLOSE the trade.

NOTE: You'll lose a few pips on the trades that didn't work out. However, when you're at the start of a short-term trend, you can pick up 50, 100, or more pips, which more than makes up for the small losses.

All you need is the strength to CLOSE your trade the minute that the MA's cross against you, and the willingness to accept your inevitable small losses.

I promise you that you'll make money and be ahead of 95% of all the traders in the world.

Do I use this simple system? No, I learned how to read the Price Action as it compares to the Volume and Momentum in any one period - a very high learning curve, but also a very high win average.

My best wishes to all of you and please respect one another, even those who offend you.
  • #12,323
  • May 8, 2007 6:09pm May 8, 2007 6:09pm
The Bulls were very much PISSED when their PYRAMID POSITIONS kept stacking up the losses as support breaks down one after another. Cheering for the Bear Run surely irked them very much.

I bet the same feeling holds true for "HenryCarol" when the bulls were laughing at his shorts from all the way down as 1.9600 and adding up every 100 pips to 2.0100.

Buttom line, "dont be pissed".

Im pissed because I am bearish and when several indicators indicated a possible bull, I went bull and it run over me. Though I profited 8 pips from it, i was forced to close other positions (aka average the basket) to make it work. ie, close long GBPUSD, close short EURUSD (prematurely), close Long USDJPY to get the profit.

As I said, coin lands head or tail. GBPUSD is not a one-way Bull Ride.
  • #12,324
  • May 8, 2007 8:17pm May 8, 2007 8:17pm
Cesar,

Wait out these new to the thread "experts". You know when their micro accounts are blown away they will head back over to youtube or someplace else that catches their attention.

Sun
  • #12,325
  • May 8, 2007 8:25pm May 8, 2007 8:25pm
Bears may have won yesterday, wait for FOMC and BOE.

These are risk events for both USD and GBP.

Also watch out for JPY. If this go bullish, it will hurt GBP (and EUR) more than it will hurt USD.

.
.
.
This is something I got from MIGFX:

Cable
RESIS. / SUPPORT Tue/Wed, May 9th STG-1.9895 Tuesday
1.9975/ST/1.9840 Downside correction from 2.0130 is becoming
2.0070/MT/1.9660 long from a time perspective and could be
2.0130/LT/1.9590 setting a larger top. However, as key 1.9820
---------------- -1.9840 sup holds a rally over 1.9975-2.0070
would still allow a final push to 2.0235 b-4 eventual reversal.

  • #12,326
  • May 8, 2007 9:07pm May 8, 2007 9:07pm
Quoting jest1081
Hey hey, cool mate.

You've worked up over 800+ pages with this thread, and this fella has your name written all over it...what is it supposed to do without the spine?
Hi Cesarnc,

there are many noises in the market (esp on the short term), glad you are finally moving on to the long terms, expect your post next week yeah!

regards
Jest
  • #12,327
  • May 8, 2007 9:34pm May 8, 2007 9:34pm
As investor, I have should have a 3 plan. Short term plan. medium term and long term. For the short term I don't care about BOE, FOMC, I just analysis from my chart and choose to short or long. For the medium term I will take input from BOE output or FOMC so I have mix investment output.

My opinion, base on trendline, Cable mostly is a downtrend. Until when only god knows. I just short yesterdat at 1.9961 and till now I'm still not close my position...just waiting the right time and right position.

Tuesday and Wednesday is best day to trade.
  • #12,328
  • May 8, 2007 10:34pm May 8, 2007 10:34pm
Quoting Igrok
This month's low on cable is likely to be around 1.9510.

Thanks Igrok , just need someone to suggest the number I am seeing on my chart
  • #12,329
  • May 8, 2007 11:01pm May 8, 2007 11:01pm
Quoting RJF
I pity the poor folks who are trying to make money in Forex and wind up disillusioned and totally confused by the Fibs, Pivot Points, Head & Shoulders, Trend Lines, etc.

To those fine folks, may I share a little secret? After going through all the indicators, drawing all the Trend Lines, reading all the forecasts, opinions, etc., you'll be no better off than the trader who selects one simple indicator for confirmation and STICKS WITH IT!

Here's an example:

Open a 10-minute candlestick chart
Select a 5-Period, Simple Moving Average, Close Price, and make it Blue
Select a 10-Period, Weighted Moving Average, Close Price, and make it Red

When the Blue line crosses down below the Red line = SELL
When the Blue line crosses up above the Red line = BUY

When the price starts going against you, but the MA's are still above/below as they were when you entered = STAY with the trade.

When the MA's cross against you, CLOSE the trade.

NOTE: You'll lose a few pips on the trades that didn't work out. However, when you're at the start of a short-term trend, you can pick up 50, 100, or more pips, which more than makes up for the small losses.

All you need is the strength to CLOSE your trade the minute that the MA's cross against you, and the willingness to accept your inevitable small losses.

I promise you that you'll make money and be ahead of 95% of all the traders in the world.

Do I use this simple system? No, I learned how to read the Price Action as it compares to the Volume and Momentum in any one period - a very high learning curve, but also a very high win average.

My best wishes to all of you and please respect one another, even those who offend you.
Where can I find a 10-minute candlestick chart? Oanda and FXDD only have 5 minute and 15 minute. Thanks
  • #12,330
  • May 8, 2007 11:07pm May 8, 2007 11:07pm
Hi guys,

I'm currently long on cable, got in at 1.9886 and have limit orders to buy at 1.9840s and 1.9790s with SL at 1.9740s. My opinion is that the cable will actually break the 2.1000 level by the end of the week and retest the high set on 4/17 of 2.130s.I see that some of you are on the sell side. I would love to get your thoughts on this.

I feel that tonight's European session will trade in a tight range following into the NY session with the same theme. The FOMC statement will keep rates the same and all majors will gain against USD and GDP breaking the 4hr trendlines just like AUD/USD did last night (and still holding strong). Of course in Forex nothing is certain...

Love to get everyones opinion on my approach.

Edit-

Just got it off straight from Bloomburg. Most analysts states that the rate will stay the same in their opinion and US most likely will cut rates in the following quarter. Theme for 2007 is USD tanking!
  • #12,331
  • May 8, 2007 11:52pm May 8, 2007 11:52pm
Quoting fxshadow
Where can I find a 10-minute candlestick chart? Oanda and FXDD only have 5 minute and 15 minute. Thanks
I use CMS-FOREX VT Trader. If you like the charts you are currently using, a 15-minute candlestick chart will work also.

You may also want to add Bollinger Bands (20,Simple,2). If the upper and lower bands are less than 20 pips apart, don't trade.

If you want to be more selective, you can also add the RSI-14 indicator. Only trade when the RSI points in the same direction as the Blue MA when it crossed the Red MA.

The RSI is a price-following oscillator that ranges between 0 and 100. However, you can disregard the level it is at, and simple look at the direction.

A popular method of analyzing the RSI is to look for a divergence in which the currency is making a new high, but the RSI is failing to surpass its previous high. This divergence is an indication of an impending reversal. When the RSI then turns down and falls below its most recent trough, it is said to have completed a "failure swing." The failure swing is considered a confirmation of the impending reversal.

There you have it... a simple, complete system that should work very well for you, provided that you have the discipline to stick to the rules, which I'll repeat here:

After going through all the indicators, drawing all the Trend Lines, reading all the forecasts, opinions, etc., you'll be no better off than the trader who selects one simple indicator for confirmation and STICKS WITH IT!

Here's an example:

Open a 10-minute candlestick chart
Select a 5-Period, Simple Moving Average, Close Price, and make it Blue
Select a 10-Period, Weighted Moving Average, Close Price, and make it Red

When the Blue line crosses down below the Red line = SELL
When the Blue line crosses up above the Red line = BUY

When the price starts going against you, but the MA's are still above/below as they were when you entered = STAY with the trade.

When the MA's cross against you, CLOSE the trade.

NOTE: You'll lose a few pips on the trades that didn't work out. However, when you're at the start of a short-term trend, you can pick up 50, 100, or more pips, which more than makes up for the small losses.

All you need is the discipline to CLOSE your trade the minute that the MA's cross against you, and the willingness to accept your inevitable small losses.

I promise you that you'll make money and be ahead of 95% of all the traders in the world.
  • #12,332
  • May 9, 2007 12:16am May 9, 2007 12:16am
I promise you that you'll make money....

Which means you will cover any losses? Hmmm.

MA's are what 95% of what traders use.
  • #12,333
  • May 9, 2007 12:17am May 9, 2007 12:17am
Wow.. seems like i missed the "firing at each other" session yesterday. Im against shooting at other people's opinion. Like what in those samurai's movie like to say.. "Even though we have different ideology, but i RESPECT him because he lives what he believes as i live what i believe"
But what makes me upset sometimes is some people like to post "cable will touch here" or "after reach here, cable will go to here" WITHOUT SOME PROPER EXPLANATION WHY THEY CAME OUT WITH THAT CONCLUSION.
What can be learn from that kind of post other than later if their so called "prophecy" turns out to be true and they come out with the "told u so" winning dance. But when their "prophecy" is wrong, they just keep in silence like nothing ever happened. If u dare to perform the winning dance, then u should be dare to admit the mistake.
So for those smart traders out there who like to give out "prophecies", please be kind enough to explain to this humble newbie here so that i can learn something out of it too. Or maybe u cant do that becoz its a "whisper from God"????

Sorry if i got out of topics and get a lil bit emotional. No offense to everyone.
  • #12,334
  • Edited 12:59am May 9, 2007 12:32am | Edited 12:59am
Quoting SunTrader
I promise you that you'll make money....

Which means you will cover any losses? Hmmm.

MA's are what 95% of what traders use.
Yes, I do believe that most traders use MA's. However, what kills them is not the MA, but FEAR and GREED.

That's why, to avoid the GREED factor, you will always enter a trade when there is a cross (taking the other rules into consideration), whereas too many traders will wait to be sure that the price is really moving in a certain direction. When they're convinced, they want in on the action (GREED) and enter just before it is about to reverse. Then the FEAR factor comes into play.

To avoid the FEAR factor, even when the price reverses, as long as the MA's have not crossed against you, STAY with your trade.

My promise that you'll make money comes with a CAVEAT... you must have the discipline to follow the rules religiously EVERY TIME you trade, regardless of what you or anyone else THINKS will happen.

Now, now, SunTrader! My promise doesn't mean that I'll cover any losses. In fact, as I stated in my post, you WILL have losses, and you must have the discipline to accept those inevitable losses.

PS. There's nothing magical about this system. I could give you at least 50 more, and they will all work just about as well.

The magic is in the structured discipline of the rules. If followed religiously, they will keep you from beating yourself. That's the magic that most traders lack... and their National Anthem is,"Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda!"

Finally, with all due respect, most traders need to take a good, hard look in the mirror, and ask themselves:

"Do I really, really, want to make money? Or do I really just want to be in on the action and hope that my lucky number comes up this time?"
  • #12,335
  • May 9, 2007 1:23am May 9, 2007 1:23am
Quoting goonergonebad
I think the trade is long. Still targeting 9975+ long since 9925

Its funny how someone can just randomly draw 2 lines on a chart and come to a conclusion as to what it means.. Try drawing things correctly.
  • #12,336
  • May 9, 2007 1:36am May 9, 2007 1:36am
Quoting PandoraBox
As investor, I have should have a 3 plan. Short term plan. medium term and long term. For the short term I don't care about BOE, FOMC, I just analysis from my chart and choose to short or long. For the medium term I will take input from BOE output or FOMC so I have mix investment output.

My opinion, base on trendline, Cable mostly is a downtrend. Until when only god knows. I just short yesterdat at 1.9961 and till now I'm still not close my position...just waiting the right time and right position.

Tuesday and Wednesday is best day to trade.
i agree with you about today tuesday and wenesday is best for trade but carefull brother dont be rush
  • #12,337
  • May 9, 2007 1:45am May 9, 2007 1:45am
4h chart already cross the downtrend line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu090507.jpg Size: 44 KB
  • #12,338
  • May 9, 2007 2:05am May 9, 2007 2:05am
One chart for cable
Attached Image
  • #12,339
  • Edited 2:48am May 9, 2007 2:05am | Edited 2:48am
Quoting Takisd
Its funny how someone can just randomly draw 2 lines on a chart and come to a conclusion as to what it means.. Try drawing things correctly.
I don't randomly draw lines. For me they are correct (as a famous English comic once said to Andre Previn - "I'm playing all the right notes but not necessarily in the right order). I have my own start of GMT day system and most of the time it works for me. I got it wrong again yesterday and cut my losses as quickly as I could.

Sorry if I offended you in some way. I don't post detailed explanations of my trades here as unlike the majority of posters here, I don't adhere to strict technicals or fundamentals. Just a bit of both.

Once again, I did not intend to offend your obvious superior technical intellect. That is not a jibe either - just a fact.
  • #12,340
  • May 9, 2007 2:18am May 9, 2007 2:18am
Could you show to us the correct way how to draw the trendline. Maybe we could improve our analysis after get the right technique from you.


Quoting Takisd
Its funny how someone can just randomly draw 2 lines on a chart and come to a conclusion as to what it means.. Try drawing things correctly.
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