Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Gu: H1 My View. Trade Safe and with your own plan.
Now we are in Rally/Base/Drop Zone.

Range indicate volume pump. For us to have a good movement price must enter into range.
GU refuse to come back to previous day range at the opening.

Now it may come back to previous day range or wait for today’s range and utilize it for a pump of volume. You can see there is no much of a downward movement.

The black Box is the previous day range.

NZDUSD LONG 360 pips

Good morning/afternoon/evening @BigNumbers,

I'd like to please ask if you could kindly ascertain that there are any consequential correlations between the GU (which is what this thread is exclusively for) and all the other pairs you post here.
I mean, I'm sure those pairs have their own dedicated threads, but you seem to always feel the need to bring them here. Do they have any consequence for us GBPUSD loyalists please?

Thank you!

Ignore other pairs and focus on the Gu chart I posted.

Looks like this another day of getting absolutely raped

Last week it was all about the sell call and eventually it bought with many losing money now this week the noise is in for a buy call this week. Just do your own research before jumping on any call here many in their private rooms are doing the opposite get that straight.

that's funny but true too.
I for one am guilty as charged, on occasion though.
But yea you're right.

should be tough to do alone if , better after monthly breakout / pullback to continue down for 5890 and 5716. ok after 6195 resistance , if it test 6250/74 + ok . take care

Getting very close to £10,000 of losses in 20 months.

Don't be deceived into thinking you're not doing well. Not great, but not as bad as one like me who's lost that in 48hrs not even 3 months ago!
Hopefully you're wiser and picked up a lesson or two from losing. In the end, all you lost will be like "tuition fees" for the lessons which will drive you to recover all you lost, and them some too!
Hang in there.

I'll have to accept that this dream isn't happening soon.

But then when all the countries roll out their CBDCs, the whole Forex market is dead.

its only 80 pip drawdown, its nothing lol

thank you for your honesty, do you use SMC, ICT?

For someone who has a monthly net income of £2200 a month, it's a lot of money. I only risk 2% per trade, but I see buy an sell setups all the time. I always have valid reasons to go in both directions. and so I get annihilated.

OK. Back in my office on this early Euro morning.

Now, I've briefly touch on SVB fallout. In my view, this SVB thing has a rather limited ripper to larger banking system.

Bigger banks, more well capitalised ones, like Goldman, JP Morgan, Citi, HSBC, .... they're well run and well regulated. So, no problem. The issue with SVB is really down to their business model. It's a mid-size, regional bank, with rather poor risk management practice. I'm sure there're banks on the likes of SVB, with significant holes in their balance sheets. I'm talking about those with assets cap under $250B. Not saying you go short their stocks, no.. no..., just limit exposure if you happen to have capitals in these mid-size ones.

Now, simply because of how FDIC was designed, depositors from mid-size banks are likely to follow the herd, withdrawing and transfer their capitals to larger, bigger banks. Alternatively, we might see depositors flock to the treasuries, given that attracting yields closing in on 5%, on US 3-month and 6-month. Even the one-year looks good compared to interest gains on parking cash in a bank.

Deposit flight is one concern, but I don't see it as grave enough to warrant Fed intervention. US Treasury may say a word or two, that's probably all they'll do. Bailout? Nah... unlikely given that these are smaller banks, generally pose no systemic risk to stability. As a matter of fact, SVB has a $15B loan from the San Fran FED bank. It's unlikely regional Fed wants further exposure to SVB. I see potential of bigger banks, or may be even private equity buy up SVB entirely. Then, we're back to business as usual. The pump and dump, and dented confidence on the dollar, was merely a past. Things get forgotten fast, Fed and market can return to focus on inflation again, with more rate hikes....

Back to our topic. On Cable, I'm still retaining my bearish bias. I may look to close some profitable trades on Sterling, and add more to my yen positions. The magic that we might see during Mar '23 FOMC meeting, probably will get overshadowed, temporarily, and get moved further to May '23 meeting. They'll publish their SEC projection in Mar '23, and we might see rates are indeed going to stay high for much longer. We'll see.

On the Swiss franc question. My answer was yes, the franc did react to Swiss CPI last Monday. However, it was sold off on Mar 8 to 9, before that dramatic buy on Friday. That was a reaction to SVB jitters on Thu afternoon. One family office we worked with was selling US treasuries after the auction, and wanted exposure on the Swissy. We took that trade at 0.938 I believed. It's now trading at 0.918 as I write. So, a good trade I must say.

At this instance, I'll not add any more trades to my portfolio. I'll perfer to sit down, and watch.

until you see prices at 1.1700 u will still say its nothing

I'm using ICT's techniques, but I get the same disastrous results if I use indicators.

Take for example the screenshot from the 5 minute chart.
Yellow lines ate the highs of candles on higher timeframes, for support. Red lines are either liquidity above or below. Red boxes are OBs, Yellow boxes are FVGs.

So which am I meant to be targeting? I can even see this in ICTs videos, he'll be talking about this amazing entry in an FVG, but I'm pointing at the screen at one that occurred just minutes before that didn't work he totally ignores.

If a FVG, occurs below an OB with liquidity residing above it, which one should I look for an entry given that on a lower timeframe, an entry setup is likely to occur in all 3?

It's all very well, saying things like "follow the trend" and "wait for a retracement to an area of support" but when you can identify these area and these setups all over the place, which ones? How do I know, which ones are more probable than not? I know I can't be certain about anything, but at least give me a hint.

I've lost 34% of my account this morning because I was following the trend down, it broke structure to the upside after reaching my first yellow line, switched to longs in the first red OB, after which it's going between OBs, FVG, and liquidity all the while appearing to go nowhere at the same time.

The 8.25-8.35 period on LO is a period I keep my eye on for daily trend..
it dropped hard as per below however minutes just after 8.30 there are some small green spikes. This to me is a bit of a spanner in the works. As it could prove to hinder any full on short session. Maybe enough juice to go down to 12050 area to pick up liquidity and restart 121-12120

Ok, price has come back into the wick of the last 1 hour candle of the overnight retracement. Is this the area that it reacts to in order the use all the sellers stops this morning to take the long-term liquidity around 1.2150?

This is an example of how my mind works. I now drop down to a lower timeframe to look for a reversal pattern and move back to an OB or FVG for a long.