Cable Update (GBPUSD)

The last time they ever raised interest rates by anything more than 25bp was back in February 1995, over 12 years ago. I see no reason for them to do it now but with BOE you never know. But if it comes as expected, which in my opinion is already priced in, then we might see 'buy the rumour, sell the fact' type of situation.

It may be a bit early to tell but this little down wave may be bottoming out. I would hold on and see. This pair is in a corrective wave at the moment so trade will be choppy. So I believe there is a good chance for you to at least break even today.

Next target 1.9865

Hate that kind of post... I'm off the thread

And next target will be 1.9500, base on the trend it was downtrend, but it slowly down.

As long as GBPJPY is bullish, my remaining positions will profit.

my short EURUSD is a long termer, so I should remove that from the current basket

Com'n man,, your first post here is a target,,, be rational,, please,,
or at least say "i think we gonna see the 98",,
Thanks anyway...

The risks facing the global economy are growing by the day, even as stock markets boom and the bidding wars escalate.
As the FTSE 100 surges inexorably towards its all-time high, so the warnings are coming thick and fast. Apparently, hedge funds are now taking more risks than at any time since Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) collapsed in 1998, threatening the stability of the global financial system.
Meanwhile, housing markets are looking vulnerable across the world - yes, even here in the UK. And a former deputy chairman of the Federal Reserve, Professor Alan Blinder, is warning that a quarter of jobs in the Western world could be rendered obsolete by offshoring, including many white collar positions.
So how long can the party continue in the face of such headwinds?
The warning about hedge funds came from US derivatives consultancy Tavakoli Structured Finance. The company’s president, Janet Tavakoli told the FT that, although the current status of the hedge fund industry was different compared to the days of LTCM, it was in fact probably even more risky.
“Due to the use of structured products and derivatives, hedge funds can take on hidden leverage over and beyond that which can be explained by polling prime brokers.”
In other words, they could be even more overstretched, with tentacles in even more parts of the market, than anyone suspects.
Because the industry got away with the Amaranth collapse last year, with barely a murmur, practitioners seem to think nothing can go wrong. And of course, that makes them even more foolhardy in the bets that they place - making it more likely, as Warren Buffett warned at the weekend, that “some very unpleasant things” will happen because of derivatives.
Then we have housing. Prices are falling in the US and Ireland, and the brakes are on in Spain (though now, of course, the estate agents are claiming that prices in Spain have been falling for ages, and in fact, now’s the time to buy). And it looks as though, slowly but surely, the interest rate squeeze is having an effect on us here in the UK too.
Prices are at their least affordable for “a generation”, claims Lombard Street Research. It costs nearly seven times the average wage to buy an average property, and mortgages take up 45% of the typical salary. That’s a level not seen since the crash of 1989.
It’s no surprise that even at the top end, asking prices are being cut, according to a piece in The Sunday Times at the weekend. And with interest rates almost certain to rise this week, the news for housing in the UK is not going to get any better.
This doesn’t mean that the merger frenzy gripping the stock market can’t continue for now. Indeed, as Tom Stevenson says in The Telegraph, with $300bn raised by private equity funds, there’s plenty more money where the funds to bid for Reuters came from. Every sector is up for grabs - including one of MoneyWeek’s favourites, the miners. A Merrill Lynch report last week on the prospects of a buy-out and break-up of BHP Billiton pushed share prices in the company and its peers higher, as the markets start to realise just how cheap the sector looks.
Stevenson reckons that it will be “very surprising” if the FTSE 100 doesn’t breach its all-time high of 6,930 this summer - and faced with all that money and hype, he’s probably not wrong.
But the credit squeeze is on. And as conditions tighten across the world, at some point, all that debt is going to go from being a useful tool to an insufferable burden. As Stevenson says, quoting Buffett: “Appropriate prices don’t guarantee profits in any given year, but inappropriate prices almost certainly guarantee eventual losses.”
He could be talking about anything from the M&A market to the housing market right now. One thing’s for sure - in the not-too-distant future, some people will be regretting the ‘inappropriate prices’ they paid for what seemed like prize assets in the heat of the boom.

Can Mervyn King win the war on inflation?

Tax payers in Britain were invited to vote early and often in last week's local council elections. The French got to choose between one bone-head and another this weekend, too.
But amid the door-stepping and live TV wrangling in Europe right now, it's a poor central bank drudge who seems to want victory most.
Mervyn King: "inflation expectations anchored"
Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, celebrated its first decade of political independence with a speech in the City last night. No one lobbed bread rolls or fruit at the governor, not according to this morning's press reports at least. It's only polite to allow a guest speaker his views, after all.
But even a room full of "dismal scientists" must have gasped at the cheek of the man. To quote:
"Inflation expectations [in the United Kingdom] have been anchored," he said, "because the Monetary Policy Committee has responded to events that have pushed the outlook for inflation away from target – and households, businesses and financial markets have understood and anticipated our responses."
Oh yeah? The money supply has been growing at double-digits for two years running. But "the crucial achievement of the MPC is to have anchored inflation expectations," said King. "It is not, I believe, credible to dismiss that solely as the result of luck."
Bravo...encore!
"On that sunny Bank Holiday morning in 1997, we knew [the government] had given us an opportunity to change monetary policy for the better. We had to grab it with both hands. That is exactly what the Bank has done."
Vote, vote, vote for Mervyn King!
"The average deviation of inflation from target has been just minus 0.08 percentage points," the Trimmer went on. But he was big enough to mention – alongside his lack of good fortune – a couple of "downside" shocks to general price levels. First the Pound Sterling rose by 25%, he noted, squashing import prices by one fifth. Then we experienced the largest inflow of migrant labor since Harold Macmillan was prime minister in the early 1950s.
What Mervyn King failed to do, however, was add them together.
What Mervyn King didn't mention
Sterling's rise – plus the flood of cheap migrant workers, now reckoned at around 1% of the population every two years – has helped keep a lid on both wages and import prices. Not a word from Dr. King on this, however. More shocking still, he also failed to mention China, India, Asia, globalization, outsourcing, the global labour arbitrage, and the internet.
No kidding! Britain's chief economist...talking about inflation...didn't mention the big win he's enjoyed from globalization. Not once. So let's mention it for him.
Take East Asian wage rates, for instance. What have they got to do with the price of fish, you might wonder. Well, the price of fish for British consumers rose 12.6% in the last 12 months, as it happens. But the cost of new clothes, mostly produced in East Asia today, fell more than 8% in the last two years alone. The price of a new television has sunk by one fifth. New cameras are 34% cheaper; furniture's unchanged; carpets and drapes are 7% cheaper; games and toys are more than 5% lower from Jan. 2005.
Worth a mention, Dr. King?
"Ricardian comparative advantage tells us that the first win [of globalization] goes to low-wage workers in developing economies," noted Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, recently. "[They] enter the global economy initially through their involvement in export production and eventually as a new class of consumers."
"The second win [of globalization] is presumed to benefit the rich nations of the developed world," Roach went on – "where consumers can expand their standard of living by buying low-cost, high-quality goods from poor countries and where workers can ultimately gain from being involved in the production of more sophisticated products exported to increasingly prosperous developing economies."
This much seems true at first glance. "But it’s not working as advertised," said the Morgan Stanley man. "The first win is hard to dispute. China has led the way, with more than a quadrupling of its per capita GDP since the early 1990s...[But] in recent years, the benefits of the second win have accrued primarily to the owners of capital at the expense of the providers of labor."
Can Mervyn King win the war on inflation?
In short – and as in all inflationary periods – the returns to labor have been way outstripped by the returns to capital. But what if we go a step further, too? What if the "first win" didn't go to China? What if it went to Western central bankers instead?
The shock disinflation enjoyed by the developed world since 1997 – in clothing, footwear, computers, TVs, DVDs, mobile phones, year-round fruit and vegetables – did it not give the "first win" of globalization straight to central bankers? Despite a tripling of oil prices, they've been able to keep real interest rates static...pushing property values up to all-time record levels...creating the biggest credit bubble in history...and reflating the world's stock markets as though spring 2000 never happened.
A central banker looking to take credit for "anchoring" inflation in the early 21st century might want, you would guess, to acknowledge this fact at least. He'd certainly nod towards globalization itself. But no.
In praising that sunny day in May 1997 when the Old Ladies were set free to make policy over tea and biscuits once a month, Mervyn King failed to mention the single biggest influence on consumer prices of the last decade – the sinking price of consumer goods.
Ten years on from winning his freedom, Mervyn King would do well to remember it. An end to this "first win" might let UK inflation – already rising at a 17-year record – slip anchor.

Just like i said..

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=12198

And i didnt take a cent knowing this. I guess i better start to forget about "all week trades" and get back to 40 or 50 pip trades, at least i can win them even if i do a bad analysis like trading a retraction. 100+ trades dont leave many space to errors in the prediction.

Sorry friends.. don't be so emotion.. stay calm.. be kind..

eur/usd has been droping nicely today.

Hey hey, cool mate.

You've worked up over 800+ pages with this thread, and this fella has your name written all over it...what is it supposed to do without the spine?

True Warper thats how I have been positioning of late. Shorts at just before that trendline. Initial target is 1.9850

maybe its time to see a doctor profesor.

Mr Profesor welcome to the forum.

I hope we learn and share some good information

I think the trade is long. Still targeting 9975+ long since 9925

MOVE CABLE MOVE!

cable should move 150 pips per day! it is not called The Beast for nothing! But lately it's acting like a damn kitten!

Someone awake cable please!

or what?

I'm long here but with a Sell Limit waiting to catch a dip. Back to break even ATM.

this is the wrong platform for us to be exchanging words, your funny kid tho, lets get back to cable.