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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #12,181
  • May 7, 2007 2:38pm May 7, 2007 2:38pm
Quoting africanpip
Why did You put your stop loss there? Just above a major Fib of 38.2% (APR 18 high/APR 9 low)
Africanpip-the major 38.2 fib that u speak of rests @ 1.9927. A breach of this level by more than 4 pips triggers my sell order @1.9923. My current bullish stance on Cable with the upcoming rate hike would be reversed 2 bearish if 1.9923 is breached. Btw, price just reversed 1 pip frm my SL @1.9925...guess I have a really Honest broker Hope I have answered ur question
  • #12,182
  • May 7, 2007 3:11pm May 7, 2007 3:11pm
Quoting cesarnc
SAYS WHO ? BASED ON WHAT ?
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #12,183
  • May 7, 2007 3:19pm May 7, 2007 3:19pm
Quoting Why Oh Why
God knowing will be nice. The Pope is coming to my town this week, gonna ask him if His Boss told him something.
  • #12,184
  • May 7, 2007 3:22pm May 7, 2007 3:22pm
Quoting cesarnc
God knowing will be nice. The Pope is coming to my town this week, gonna ask him if His Boss told him something.
Naah hes too busy molesting little boys and loundring money tru vatican.
  • #12,185
  • May 7, 2007 3:29pm May 7, 2007 3:29pm
15:47 USD rallies seem to be short lived as the trend continunes to be sell the rallies
  • #12,186
  • May 7, 2007 3:29pm May 7, 2007 3:29pm
What moves the market in the absence of strong economic data?

FEAR & GREED which is triggered by the smart money. E.g.:

1. Price moves up steadily. Folks buy too late (greed).
2. Market starts to reverse. Folks sell (fear).
3. Market continues its upward trend.

How do you overcome this? Learn the correlation between Price
Action and Volume - the two most important indicators - and
always trade with the short-term trend if you're a day-trader, and
with the long-term trend if you're a swing or long-term trader.

Here's just one scenario that we see very often, even with
strong economic news:

In #1 above, the volume was relatively high.
In #2 above, the volume steadily decreased.
In #3 above, the volume increased again.
  • #12,187
  • May 7, 2007 3:33pm May 7, 2007 3:33pm
Quoting Mother
Naah hes too busy molesting little boys and loundring money tru vatican.
I'll bet that most of the fine members here did not appreciate your comment!
  • #12,188
  • May 7, 2007 3:33pm May 7, 2007 3:33pm
Quoting RJF
What moves the market in the absence of strong economic data?

FEAR & GREED which is triggered by the smart money. E.g.:

1. Price moves up steadily. Folks buy too late (greed).
2. Market starts to reverse. Folks sell (fear).
3. Market continues its upward trend.

How do you overcome this? Learn the correlation between Price
Action and Volume - the two most important indicators - and
always trade with the short-term trend if you're a day-trader, and
with the long-term trend if you're a swing or long-term trader.

Here's just one scenario that we see very often, even with
strong economic news:

In #1 above, the volume was relatively high.
In #2 above, the volume steadily decreased.
In #3 above, the volume increased again.
An awesome animation (flash) here describes this

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=27972
  • #12,189
  • May 7, 2007 3:41pm May 7, 2007 3:41pm
Quoting cesarnc
An awesome animation (flash) here describes this

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=27972

brillinat stuff thanks for sharing got a good laught. and only becous its tru.
  • #12,190
  • May 7, 2007 4:05pm May 7, 2007 4:05pm

A study of momentum and volume can help in identifying reversal patterns.


A gradual fall in volume during the accumulation or distribution phases is to be expected, whereas an increase in volume is expected when a reversal pattern is confirmed.


This increase in volume is essential when the pattern reverses a downtrend.

Equally, conditions in momentum – such as overbought and oversold coupled with a divergence between momentum and price – would act as a warning sign that the trend is entering its final stage.

  • #12,191
  • May 7, 2007 5:15pm May 7, 2007 5:15pm
After reaching 1.9926 price will continue to go down to 1.9882
TRADE LIKE A MACHINE!
  • #12,192
  • May 7, 2007 5:18pm May 7, 2007 5:18pm
The Fed will meet on Wednesday and the market 'experts' expect that it will keep rates 5.25%.

The Bank of England (BOE) is expected to raise its rates on Thursday from 5.25% to 5.5%. If so, this will be the first time since January 2006 that the British rates moved higher than the United States.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to leave its rates unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday.

Since these expectations are already priced in, the focus of the market will be on the post-conference talk by ECB chairman Trichet, looking for any hint of a June rate increase.

If GBP/USD breaks above 1.9950, it could reach 2.0000+.
If it breaks below 1.9900, it could reach 1.9800-.

If EUR/USD breaks above 1.3630, it could reach 1.3700+.
If it breaks below 1.3580, it could reach 1.3500-.
  • #12,193
  • May 7, 2007 5:46pm May 7, 2007 5:46pm
I think GBPUSD and EURUSD can attain up or down levels (even money) long before thursday announcements roll around.

I am looking for what they do after FED/BOE/ECB speak.
  • #12,194
  • May 7, 2007 7:33pm May 7, 2007 7:33pm
I was trying to find a technical reason for why the price stopped at mid 70s today, and the worst thing i could expected poped up in my screen.

When the price started to drop i didnt worry, because i entered near 1.99 and i expected to see the price return back up in one or another fib.

But now, im seeing that probably i should forget the fibs because the stupid downtrend that capped for days the runs to mid 2.00xx, never ended, as i suspected seeing that shy 2.0073 breakout top.

The picture says it all. The first attempt to break that trend today, lets say that could be a coincidence, but the second attempt a few hours later ended failing with a decline to the first attempt, equal to the trend line. Thats not good..

To the downside its possible to draw another line to complete the channel and it puts in risk the 1.9841 low, as the market can give priority to the lower channel line.

http://img512.imageshack.us/img512/6598/trend1es9.jpg

http://img512.imageshack.us/img512/7091/trend2qn6.jpg

It doesnt mean that it will not pass this line to the upside reaching 2.0000, but i think that the price might get back to 1.98xx before. I just need to wide my stops but the thing that makes me sad, is seeing a perfect setup with fundamentals and technicals pointing 2.0000 and then, a bunch of ppl started to short, based in one and only thing. An old broken trend line. Omg thats sad...
  • #12,195
  • May 7, 2007 8:07pm May 7, 2007 8:07pm
Quoting x3m
... I am short from 9952. Short term of course. Targeting 9925 where some support is expected. ...
TP at 9925/9929. New orders are: STOP BUY 9941; STOP SELL 9913.
  • #12,196
  • May 7, 2007 8:37pm May 7, 2007 8:37pm
Quoting x3m
TP at 9925/9929. New orders are: STOP BUY 9941; STOP SELL 9913.
9941 long is triggered.
  • #12,197
  • May 7, 2007 9:27pm May 7, 2007 9:27pm
With london closed today (monday) I don't know why the surprise some had with the little movement / follow-through on most recent downtrend.
  • #12,198
  • May 7, 2007 9:50pm May 7, 2007 9:50pm
Quoting x3m
9941 long is triggered.
TP 9960. Now I will wait for London open to see where it will take us, because 9950-60 is the major consolidation area on my charts.
  • #12,199
  • May 7, 2007 9:51pm May 7, 2007 9:51pm
My limit buy @ 1.9925 wasnt triggered - shy by just 1 PIP!

Oh well.. The price of disciplined trading.
  • #12,200
  • May 7, 2007 9:51pm May 7, 2007 9:51pm
After reaching 1.9926 price will continue to go down to 1.9882
TRADE LIKE A MACHINE!
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