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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #12,141
  • May 6, 2007 3:40pm May 6, 2007 3:40pm
Quoting pino2
Hi notme32
It's not a must that EUR will jump higher at the opening of the market, it might but not a must, and I still have the feeling that my scenario is the one to happen as shown in my post above, and it is not a must as well
Agrred, it not a must ....... just my hop hop hop for entire week....

1.3749 and 2.0299 .............. bye.
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #12,142
  • May 6, 2007 3:46pm May 6, 2007 3:46pm
Something to ponder:

Quote
[20:29 Four Of "Shadow MPC" Vote For 50 BP Hike - Times/David Smith] Sydney, May
6: The Bank of England meet on Thursday and are widely tipped to hike rates 25
BPS to 5.50%. Writing in the Sunday Times, economics editor David Smith reports
that four of the nine "shadow" MPC voters opted for a 0.5% rise to 5.75%, but
were outvoted by the other five with three opting for a 25 BP rise and two
voting to keep rates on hold. Smith points out that the BOE has never raised
interest rates by more than a quarter of a point in the 10 years since Gordon
Brown announced its independence and while the back-drop to this week s meeting
is an inflation rate of 3.1% and a generally buoyant economy, analysts do not
expect it to break that pattern.
An overwhelming majority of economists and market analysts feel that the BOE
will hike to 5.50% on Thursday, but there is a lot of divergent views on whether
or not they will hike again in the months following.
Since the market has fully priced in a 25 BP hike to be delivered Thursday by
the BOE, it is unlikely to create too much of a stir in the financial markets.
The MPC Minutes to be released May 23 could be a bigger event for the markets,
as it may help settle the issue of whether or not the MPC has more tightening in
mind. [email protected]



[IFR Forex Watch]
[SQUAWK BOX]
  • #12,143
  • Edited 4:12pm May 6, 2007 3:51pm | Edited 4:12pm
Quoting Warper
Hmm. Lets put it in a logical way. And im just learning..

The price rose to 2.0131 surfing the wave "strong economy/rate hike/weak US fase"

Then it started to consolidate in a way of waiting for confirmation.

Now we see a clear price channel, and as i see, the price is closer to the lower values than the higher ones. So.. what tells you that the hike is priced in if the price dropped so much in dovish boe comments and some mixed us data, and now the data and comments are starting to confirm the things who took us to the "mountain price" in the first place.

Lets forget about the extremes but, my common sense tells me that at least the price should be in the middle of the 1.9841 - 2.0131 consolidation range, which is closer to 2.0000 than the 1.98 values that you are targeting.

I guess you are confusing with situations when the uptrend was never interrupted and the price is really priced in. But we are in a short term downtrend so i guess that, there are lots of fuel to really price the hike this week. We are 200 pip away from the 2.0131 top, so i cant really understand what kind of "priced in" is that.

Well, i dont know... lets see.
Priced in means, people ALREADY anticipated it for a long time already and with that, have moved the GBP up - early birds syndrome, they dont wait for confirmation but "buy the rumor" and once it is confirmed, they dump it "sell the fact". Check history: a currency does not go up after an expected rate hike; you may want to check GBPUSD last NOV(or dec?) when they did raise it expectedly. January was unexpected so it was bullish but it all retraced back down in a couple of hours. This happens not just to GBP but with other currencies such as NZD, AUD and EUR. "Expected rate hikes" does not increase the value of the currency after the decision is made but rather very much earlier - oftentimes weeks ahead and in this case, 2 months (it was widely expected to come out either last April or this May).

What people havent priced in this may 10 is a 0.50% hike (or a second 0.25% hike). IF we see a 0.50% this coming MAY 10 BOE decision, then it will be ultra bullish.

The consolidation and short term bearishness were made possible by some VERY strong US data (ISM) and some bad UK M&A news. However the last few H4 candles were bullish all thanks to a "slightly" bad US NFP data.
  • #12,144
  • May 6, 2007 4:40pm May 6, 2007 4:40pm
I know what happens. That is basic forex.. lol.

I saw it live with NZD/USD some days ago.

But you are talking about a "dump" that happens minutes before and minutes after the +0.25 new, and what you are saying is that, the dump will start today and when the new comes out, more dump. Im sorry but ive never seen a dump of a good new starting 4 days before.

So what are you telling? The price will drop to 1.98 until thursday and when the +0.25 new comes out, the price will go to 1.96. And then 1.4 like Igrok said. Holocaust coming?
  • #12,145
  • May 6, 2007 4:50pm May 6, 2007 4:50pm
Quoting Warper
I know what happens. That is basic forex.. lol.

I saw it live with NZD/USD some days ago.

But you are talking about a "dump" that happens minutes before and minutes after the +0.25 new, and what you are saying is that, the dump will start today and when the new comes out, more dump. Im sorry but ive never seen a dump of a good new starting 4 days before.

So what are you telling? The price will drop to 1.98 until thursday and when the +0.25 new comes out, the price will go to 1.96. And then 1.4 like Igrok said. Holocaust coming?
What I can say is: those who bought the Rate Hike have already dumped their positions long ago already. They could wait to hunt for a low point for a possible 0.50% rate hike or another 0.25% in the future (near or far).

You have to think like the big boys. They set traps for you to go long and them shorting it.

But personally, I wont go buying GBPUSD on this rate hike issue alone UNLESS it is a 0.50%.
  • #12,146
  • May 6, 2007 5:27pm May 6, 2007 5:27pm
You might be right. One thing i know, i will never trade in sideways/consolidation days again. I realized that when i ride a trend i can make profits in 1 or 2 weeks that i tought i would only be doing in months and then relax and wait. So, that "dump news, weeks before" mentality might be a good idea.

I just disagree with the "strong us data". I dont know if it will be good in the near future, but regardind the ISM reports, many ppl might not know that, the guy who runs that reports said that the big values were abnormal. What happened is that, the base/standard values used for comparison were ajusted/changed and produced values diferent of would normally produce, and it will be extremelly dificult to see that kind of thing again. And about the employment gains that they announced, it were only somekind of wood related jobs that dont apear all the time. NFP prove it right.

So, i guess no one really knows if the price will fall or rise until the central banks talk. Bearish or Bullish trend, i dont care, i just want to leave this indecision fase that sucks lol.
  • #12,147
  • May 6, 2007 5:45pm May 6, 2007 5:45pm
Quoting notme32
so 2h to go to open market...................and sarkozy has win....
eur will jump , how about g/u.......? hop hop hop same......
From what I learn from DailyFX commentary, if Sarkozy wins, it would be no good for Eur for the short term but good for the long term. Thus, Eur would probably fall and then back up again quickly.
  • #12,148
  • May 6, 2007 6:50pm May 6, 2007 6:50pm
Quoting Warper
I just disagree with the "strong us data". I dont know if it will be good in the near future, but regardind the ISM reports, many ppl might not know that, the guy who runs that reports said that the big values were abnormal.
.
.
.
So, i guess no one really knows if the price will fall or rise until the central banks talk. Bearish or Bullish trend, i dont care, i just want to leave this indecision fase that sucks lol.

No one is indeed certain if the market is bearish or bullish. But if you dont believe the strong ISM numbers, you should have shorted USD at any levels not having to wait for anything right?

ie, [email protected] BUY, [email protected] BUY, [email protected] BUY, [email protected] BUY.

As for me, those numbers are short term.
  • #12,149
  • May 6, 2007 7:21pm May 6, 2007 7:21pm
Quoting BurgerKing
No one is indeed certain if the market is bearish or bullish. But if you dont believe the strong ISM numbers, you should have shorted USD at any levels not having to wait for anything right?

ie, [email protected] BUY, [email protected] BUY, [email protected] BUY, [email protected] BUY.

As for me, those numbers are short term.
Your numbers seems in the downtrend!
  • #12,150
  • May 6, 2007 8:21pm May 6, 2007 8:21pm
Quoting brus
I watch live

http://www.xe.com/

over the weekends, 1.9930 just now...
That page refreshes every minute. But Live?? Not if there is no one trading.

Ever month or so there is someone in a panic over a weekend seeing 200, 300 pips or more phantom moves.

Until trading opens monday morning in the East I don't believe any data (other than what Fridays closing price was).
  • #12,151
  • May 6, 2007 9:49pm May 6, 2007 9:49pm
For the short term GU will rise to 2.0000, just wait for London wake up call. US consumer credit will release today.
  • #12,152
  • May 6, 2007 10:01pm May 6, 2007 10:01pm
London is on Holiday today
Illegitimi Non Carborundum
  • #12,153
  • May 7, 2007 1:05am May 7, 2007 1:05am
Quoting PandoraBox
For the short term GU will rise to 2.0000, just wait for London wake up call. US consumer credit will release today.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #12,154
  • May 7, 2007 1:32am May 7, 2007 1:32am
Quoting x3m
Looks like my 9926 break out barrier is finally broken up from the third attempt. If so indeed, the 9965 and 9985 levels are looking good. That's where my other stop orders are sitting.
It looks like the road to 2.0045 is clear as soon as 1.9985 is broken. 1.9960 should provide a decent support. If it gets stuck around 1.9960 without any decent attempts to break 1.9985 then I expect it to go back to 1.9850.
  • #12,155
  • May 7, 2007 2:20am May 7, 2007 2:20am
Quoting x3m
It looks like the road to 2.0045 is clear as soon as 1.9985 is broken. 1.9960 should provide a decent support. If it gets stuck around 1.9960 without any decent attempts to break 1.9985 then I expect it to go back to 1.9850.
The ST trend is still up, with the 5 min 200ema still rising and last at 9938 with cable at 9968. With the Brits on holiday and Europe having to digest the action in France, we may not see much action until the US session. The Euro is 12 pips below resistance at 3622 and also looking lethargic.

Difficult at the moment to see any new trades until there´s some movement - either way!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #12,156
  • May 7, 2007 5:09am May 7, 2007 5:09am
Info, rumors and gossips.... Love'em.

Quote
The [POUND] has been grinding higher over recent sessions. As well as continued broad Usd negative sentiment, the Pound enjoys an independent positive coming into the BOE rates decision this week. Although London enjoys a holiday, specs have not ignored an article by article in the Times who suggests the bank should hike by 50 basis points on Thursday if it is truly "determined to bring inflation back to its 2% target". The market is currently factoring in the likelihood of just a quarter point hike to 5.5%. Psychologically, such chatter should encourage fresh 1.9980/00 tests through the course of the week and we maintain Gbp has broad appeal on dips.

Quote
Four members of one of the [BANK OF ENGLAND] 'shadow" monetary policy committees [MPC] believe the CB should raise interest rates by half a point (Bank rate to 5.75%) this week to clamp down on infl pressures. However, they were outvoted by the other five members of the panel, which meets under the auspices of the Institute of Economic Affairs - IEA (quite separate to the Times" shadow MPC). Note, the BoE's MPC has never raised rates by 50 bp since independence in 1997, though it has cut by that margin on two occasions. We see around 15% chance for a 1/2 pt hike at this week's meeting, with our baseline scenario intact for a gradual 25 bp tightening given all the strategic and fundamental benefits vis-a-vis a bolder move. However, markets are getting more twitchy and the odds are shortening.
  • #12,157
  • May 7, 2007 5:22am May 7, 2007 5:22am
Though I am personally bearish GBPUSD (based on D1 MACD indicator), I am seeing Bullish trend also on some EMA lines the past 6 H4 candles.

Conflict on these D1 indicators would require to look at others such as Weekly (bullish) or fundamentals (bullish).

So I'd rather stop shorting GBPUSD (currently I dont have em), and wait for a pullback to buy. 0.5% Rate Hike is not priced in yet but is gaining voice in the rumor mill thus will bolster GBPUSD up.
  • #12,158
  • May 7, 2007 5:51am May 7, 2007 5:51am
US Job Report disappointed the market, but the ADP report was right this time, making it more important the next time. EURUSD not managing to move significantly.

JPY are expected to rise today on back of the BoJ Minutes from March 19-20 meeting, where members agreed to expansion to adjust the level of interest rates gradually in the light of developments in economic activity and prices.
Japan's economy will extend its longest expansion, thus pushing consumer prices up. This is helping Nikkei back on track, and should support a stronger JPY.

Swiss economy continues to post strong results, adding speculation another rate hike is within range. The weak job report from the US should give scope for another leg lower in the USD. Sell break of 1.2083, target at support. Stop bid at 1.2100.
  • #12,159
  • May 7, 2007 6:25am May 7, 2007 6:25am
Cable now

Short


i think buy cable @ 1.9930 with SL 1.9915 TP 2.0007

because if cable break 1.9915 it will goes to 1.9880
  • #12,160
  • May 7, 2007 7:14am May 7, 2007 7:14am
morning all

not in any trades yet, feel like being euro and cable bullish, but I'm practicing patience today, waiting for these ranges to break out. have orders set and now i just have to control my fingers from clicking too soon.
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