AUDUSD/USDCAD pair trading: Is it possible? or martingale? | Forex Factory

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AUDUSD/USDCAD pair trading: Is it possible? or martingale?

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 25, 2023 3:29am Feb 25, 2023 3:29am
https://www.mql5.com/en/signals/1195...ch%3asuper+bot

I know a person that is following this method of this signal

He state to have a "pair trading" strategy on AUDUSD and USDCAD... that he developped

but I have doubts that this trades I see in the reports are just a way to mascherate a martingale on the AUDCAD

Also, standard account are used sometimes and to double the trading with 2 pairs instead of 1 will mean double commissions
and rebated for an advisor-introducing broker.

Please do you know if it is possible some sort of "pair trading" so, or this is just a martingale where he average 1, 2, 3, 4+ times
increasing the lots x3?

thank you
in holiday till end of November
  • #2
  • Feb 25, 2023 3:56pm Feb 25, 2023 3:56pm
Certainly, some kind of Voodoo happening there; have you tried to contact him?

I compared the AUDCAD, AUDUSD and USDCAD looking at the dates of the biggest trades.

I don't see any special trigger, anybody else?

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #3
  • Feb 26, 2023 4:42am Feb 26, 2023 4:42am
exactly, so what I was thinking that is just an AUDCAD martingale,

and he use 2 pairs and standard account to make more commissions and rebates, in case it is a PAMM or friends money.

I didn't contact him but in the page he describe it like a system he was working since 1 year

he is working on the most uncorrelated pairs AUDUSD USDCAD

No idea of what is going there, but it can be just an illusion that it is pair trading, I believe at 99% that is a martingale

but some friends said that is possible to make such pair trading, but how? I can't find nothing in internet about a pair trading AUDUSD with USDCAD
the most uncorrelated pairs if you check 1 month correlation.

Thanks for your help!
in holiday till end of November
  • #4
  • Feb 26, 2023 5:12am Feb 26, 2023 5:12am
I don't have a problem with the correlation being opposite; I have noticed that many times.

That is just a natural function when the USD goes extraordinarily strong or weak.

As I said, I am more interested in what he is using as a trigger to enter the trades.

Yes, in the notes he mentions only trading two pairs now, good luck to him.

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #5
  • Feb 26, 2023 5:23am Feb 26, 2023 5:23am
He is buying or selling USD against AUD and CAD, with martingale technique. Indeed he diversifies using 2 pairs, hence the profit or loss can be affected by the relevant currency strength.
  • #6
  • Feb 26, 2023 5:40am Feb 26, 2023 5:40am
Quoting sheva89
He is buying or selling USD against AUD and CAD, with martingale technique. Indeed he diversifies using 2 pairs, hence the profit or loss can be affected by the relevant currency strength.
"martingale technique" doesnt tell anything about how/when he enters a Trade
Dont be upset with the result you didnt get from the work you didnt do
  • #7
  • Feb 26, 2023 6:06am Feb 26, 2023 6:06am
Quoting TDT.Coffee
{quote} "martingale technique" doesnt tell anything about how/when he enters a Trade
That's true, it will not tell how to enter or exit the trades or I don't have any idea on his strategy. But clearly, account management is far important than entr/exit in Martingale. You can randomly choose or even look at DXY to decide whether you want to buy or sell USD.
  • #8
  • Feb 26, 2023 6:18am Feb 26, 2023 6:18am
thanks for the help.

so you are expert about it, and you don't see any special "trigger" for his buy/sell of AUDCAD

Any of you, like Erebus is using such techniques? or the chart you use it's just to have a view on strong an weak currencies to have a better idea for a trade entry?

I mean, let's thing to friday, why would make sense to oper a pair trading on AUDCAD if you needed the AUDUSD going weaker than CAD to make a profit?

at the end was the same just bet on short on AUDUSD to make profit in that day instead to use the AUDCAD as trade.

In few words, if I see AUDUSD weak friday I would prefer to focus on short trades on AUDUSD and longs on USDCAD, but who care to hedge (especially with a martingale) to be let's say more neutral?

To be 1 lot short AUDCAD or short directly AUDUSD or directly long USDCAD with less size let's say 0.5$ will produce the same profit.

Sometime for example I like to long Bitcoin and short Ethereum let's say 1000$ and 1000$, but at the end if I know that the market is short and going down, would be better to just short 100/200$ of ETH and don't spend time on a spread. At the end produce the same result.
in holiday till end of November
  • #9
  • Feb 26, 2023 6:32am Feb 26, 2023 6:32am
It makes things more complicated and simply I can't comprehend this strategy. Anyway thank you for your excel sheet regarding prop firms, it really helps me a lot. For now, I will not give any opinion on this thread.
  • #10
  • Feb 26, 2023 6:38am Feb 26, 2023 6:38am
Quoting sheva89
It makes things more complicated and simply I can't comprehend this strategy. Anyway thank you for your excel sheet regarding prop firms, it really helps me a lot. For now, I will not give any opinion on this thread.
Yes I will keep it up to date! As soon as they will suggest new emerging prop firm I will add it

I'm still not funded, but as I can I will start. I'm focusing now on scalping on majors, and try to understand good entries to try something different on 4H and Daily charts.
in holiday till end of November
  • #11
  • Feb 26, 2023 6:40am Feb 26, 2023 6:40am
Quoting sheva89
It makes things more complicated and simply I can't comprehend this strategy. Anyway thank you for your excel sheet regarding prop firms, it really helps me a lot. For now, I will not give any opinion on this thread.
When it is "too complicated" and I see double, triple, quadruple lots... it's very simple, martingale.... I can't find other explanation.

If I would have a tecnique, I would do it manually, I don't believe an EA can make better of the intuit of a trader following his own idea-indicators, like let's say this fx trend/power somehow will help you to understand on what is going on on the market.

Now looking at the Erebus tool, I could think the trader could just bet day to day if better to activate in "sell" or "buy" the martingale, could change a lot... so if you see in the past days that AUDUSD is weak, you start just with sell trades... and you have less chance to start to average quickly and finish in troubles?!
in holiday till end of November
  • #12
  • Feb 26, 2023 7:59am Feb 26, 2023 7:59am
An EA will allways do better than the manual trader. Lack of emotion is , in trading , a plus
  • #13
  • Feb 26, 2023 7:02pm Feb 26, 2023 7:02pm
Quoting MickyMouseFX
An EA will allways do better than the manual trader. Lack of emotion is , in trading , a plus
Firstly, nothing in your statement is real life and true..... unless the person chooses to chase money or, has no interest in learning anything, therefore, is really just a schmuck.

Second, I have a question for people here ....

- How many individual major currencies can you count?

And now the lead on question - is it even REMOTELY possible, that, because the pool of currencies in that group is extremely small, that there may be some overlap in their relationships (beyond silly overuse of indicators and EA's etc) ?

I trade both often and sometimes they reflect each other. But that shouldn't even get close to being news worthy. And why martingale? Not judging, just a query.

As to forexball, what can you learn from it all?

I wonder if he's buying when it goes up and selling when it goes down?..... or just before each action occurs? ..... could that be the trigger? Hehehehehe.
Real Trading is not gambling.
  • #14
  • Feb 26, 2023 9:56pm Feb 26, 2023 9:56pm
i Follow AUDUSD And USDCAD. Trading AUDUSD, when USDCAD is Trading down AUDUSD is trading up.
They run in the opposite direction to each other. It always works.
  • #15
  • Edited 6:20pm Feb 27, 2023 4:33am | Edited 6:20pm
Quoting RossP
i Follow AUDUSD And USDCAD. Trading AUDUSD, when USDCAD is Trading down AUDUSD is trading up. They run in the opposite direction to each other. It always works.
not always the case. The AUDUSD/USDCAD neg. correlation can decouple (based on hourly and daily data analysis), hence the reason for the martingale trades. Anyone notice the 70% DD in early 2022?? This was due to a 2-month decoupling of the neg, correlation between the two pairs (see insert; "decoupling" is defined as the 100-day correlation <=70% (i.e., approaching 0) as evidence by the color of the correlation line shifting from red to yellow). There was also a 4-month decoupling of the correlation from the end of March 2021-end of July 2021; the martingale approach probably would have been crushed during that time period as well. Also of note is that a decoupling is occurring now.

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  • #16
  • Feb 27, 2023 11:54am Feb 27, 2023 11:54am
Quoting davelansing
{quote} not necessarily. the AUDUSD/USDCAD neg. correlation can decouple (based on hourly and daily data analysis), hence the reason for the martingale trades. Anyone notice the 70% DD in early 2022?? This was due to a 2-month decoupling of the neg, correlation between the two pairs (see insert; "decoupling" is defined as the 100-day correlation <=70% (i.e., approaching 0) as evidence by the color of the correlation line shifting from red to yellow). There was also a 4-month decoupling of the correlation from the end of March 2021-end of July 2021;...

wow thank you! this is I think what they call "z score" or don't know the exact term! do you believe in it so?

this is done with amibroker, I'm on mac, any chance to do some oscillator like that of the correlation in MT5, MT4 or on a mac compatible software?
in holiday till end of November
  • #17
  • Feb 27, 2023 1:05pm Feb 27, 2023 1:05pm
Quoting Erebus
I don't have a problem with the correlation being opposite; I have noticed that many times. That is just a natural function when the USD goes extraordinarily strong or weak. As I said, I am more interested in what he is using as a trigger to enter the trades. Yes, in the notes he mentions only trading two pairs now, good luck to him. {image}
Hello Erebus, can you suggest me some tool for MT5 or MT4 to check the strength of each currency like the one you use but free?

I tried yesterday https://www.mql5.com/en/market/produ...ing006%3aMQLTA

MQLTA doesn't work well at all, anything free that helps?
in holiday till end of November
  • #18
  • Feb 27, 2023 3:03pm Feb 27, 2023 3:03pm
Quoting forexbali
{quote} Hello Erebus, can you suggest me some tool for MT5 or MT4 to check the strength of each currency like the one you use but free? I tried yesterday https://www.mql5.com/en/market/produ...ing006%3aMQLTA MQLTA doesn't work well at all, anything free that helps?
I always watch finviz.com and babypips.com

They both reset daily, so they need time to analyze the current day's data

But sometimes, by the time London opens, the order is established

If it continues through that session and on to US sessions, you have a winner

For example, GBP showed early strength and it's still there, 1-hour of Monday left in USA

I am assuming day trading here, longer term, daily price action is the guide to use

Hope that helps

PS: don't forget, end of month shenanigans today!

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #19
  • Feb 27, 2023 6:14pm Feb 27, 2023 6:14pm
Quoting forexbali
{quote} wow thank you! this is I think what they call "z score" or don't know the exact term! do you believe in it so? this is done with amibroker, I'm on mac, any chance to do some oscillator like that of the correlation in MT5, MT4 or on a mac compatible software?
Z-score relates to the degree of deviation of a dependent variable from its mean assuming a normal distribution of the dependent variable, but since price versus time is not normally distributed (due to kurtosis), a Z-score is not appropriate - but I have to defer to the hard-core stats folks.

You're right regarding Amibroker, and I wrote this Correlation Plot to let me quantify the number of bars above/below a certain threshold (I generally use +/- 70 over a 100-bar period) as well as visualize the correlation over several years of data. I don't use MT4/MT5, but I'm sure that there's a Correlation program written for that software.

From Wikipedia:

..a z-score (also called a standard score) gives you an idea of how far from the mean a data point is. But more technically it’s a measure of how many standard deviations below or above the population mean a raw score is. A z-score can be placed on a normal distribution curve.
  • #20
  • Feb 28, 2023 4:15am Feb 28, 2023 4:15am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} I always watch finviz.com and babypips.com They both reset daily, so they need time to analyze the current day's data But sometimes, by the time London opens, the order is established If it continues through that session and on to US sessions, you have a winner For example, GBP showed early strength and it's still there, 1-hour of Monday left in USA I am assuming day trading here, longer term, daily price action is the guide to use Hope that helps PS: don't forget, end of month shenanigans today! {image}{image}
More than the day, that I'm a scalper so I'm able, theorically, to filter the trends,

I need something to keep me in mind in the past week let's say of the strenght of each currency, just if I have some doubts for entries on 15M, 1H, 4H charts

for example in the past days YEN was weak, so entries for longs was pull backs with strong pairs against YEN on supports. While weaker currencies like GBP and EUR made double bottoms, while very weak like AUD and NZD made deep low giving no entries.

So something just to remember in the past recent days which is the current situation because sometime we are always looking for entries like double bottoms, fake breakouts etc, but now watching better charts I realize how a double bottom for a weaker currency is the same of a pullback on a support on a stronger pair

for example in the past few days EURUSD and GBPUSD gave some entry signal with a double bottom while GBPJPY and EURJPY that are against weaker YEN gave an entry on supports in a consolidated trend. Sometime traders are afraid to enter to such levels and believe more in to be contrariars or lots of price action wants to trade just recent lows/high etc etc
in holiday till end of November
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