AUD/CAD

Today, the United States administration announced its intention to impose a new 50% tariff on a significant number of Canadian goods. This is the latest in a series of unilateral U.S. trade actions that began with the U.S. imposing a series of tariffs in direct violation of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), the free trade agreement between ...

Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, says he thinks the Federal Reserve won't move on interests rates for the rest of this year. Daco talks about what he wants to see from the new Chairman Kevin Warsh. Daco speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

We’re back to reading tea leaves! Hooray! Next week the Federal Reserve will have its second meeting since Kevin Warsh officially took the helm. And, at this point, the outcome is far from certain, which is unusual given that ever since Ben Bernanke instituted “forward guidance” the market usually knew what to expect. Warsh does not think “forward guidance” ...

Canadian consumer prices fell a greater-than-expected 0.4% in June, cutting the yearly inflation rate to 2.8% y/y. Note that June usually sees some decline in prices, leaving the seasonally-adjusted monthly change at flat. A 10.2% drop in gasoline prices weighed heavily on the headline, but there was softness elsewhere as well. It wasn't all weakness ...

F/m Investments’ Washington, D.C., office is just a short drive from the Federal Reserve’s headquarters. But under the central bank’s new leadership, CEO Alexander Morris has found the distance feeling far greater. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh embarked on an overhaul of the central bank’s forward-looking communication since taking the post in May. That move ...

Over the past several years, Wall Street and Washington, D.C., have grown used to being able to reliably predict what the Federal Reserve would do at its interest-rate meeting, weeks before the gathering took place. But now we're in a new era. Instead of guiding the market toward the likely outcome of the upcoming meeting, the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, ...

Canada’s insurance industry is renewing calls for governments to invest in flood protection after severe storms and flooding across Canada caused more than $1.1 billion in insured damage in June. Insurers estimate the June 9 and 10 storms in Manitoba and Saskatchewan caused more than $728 million in insured losses, while flooding in Montreal and surrounding ...

Mexico’s Foreign Affairs Minister Roberto Velasco Alvarez says his government will engage in trilateral talks with the U.S. and Canada on the continental trade pact when “it’s appropriate.” The Trump administration opted not to renew the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement on trade, better known as CUSMA, at the start of July. That triggered rolling annual reviews ...

This is an unusual time for markets, with a reasonable debate for both sides on whether the next move by central banks will be to hike or cut interest rates. Certainly, markets are leaning to at least one hike by the Fed and perhaps half of one by the Bank of Canada by the end of 2026, but there’s not much conviction. All it would take to wash away those ...

A Hudson Bay Capital think piece by Roubini and Miran is normally a five-alarm macro bin fire, except their latest also has the highly respected Peter Ireland as co-author. The paper, A return to monetarism?, reads very much like something Peter would write and nothing at all like anything Roubini or Miran have produced before. But if Peter has brought them ...