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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #86,481
  • Feb 24, 2023 11:33am Feb 24, 2023 11:33am
Quoting Butters
Might be getting an opportunity to fade the move up. I had two valid long entries setup in the middle of the night while I was sleeping, but obviously since I was sleeping I couldn't take them. lol As for the fade, it's kinda like the London Close trade. After that time there's not much will to keep moving price so it presents an opportunity for a counter-trend trade. The price extreme is usually in between 11am to 2pm NY time. It doesn't always present, but it often does. I'll see how things shape up over the next couple hours or so. {image}
When do you think it will retrace.. today or next week... Hoping to see 135.00 again
  • #86,482
  • Feb 24, 2023 11:37am Feb 24, 2023 11:37am
Quoting Butters
Might be getting an opportunity to fade the move up. I had two valid long entries setup in the middle of the night while I was sleeping, but obviously since I was sleeping I couldn't take them. lol As for the fade, it's kinda like the London Close trade. After that time there's not much will to keep moving price so it presents an opportunity for a counter-trend trade. The price extreme is usually in between 11am to 2pm NY time. It doesn't always present, but it often does. I'll see how things shape up over the next couple hours or so. {image}
Short... target the wick bottom for now. (Exploratory trade, probably a market maker testing the market to see how low buyers are), 134.8 - 134.5 on the extreme side, then some sideways action before going north. Looking like a possibly dovishfed report, but let's see what the next couple of weeks bring. For now IMO DXY has a small pullback then finishes the uptrend that will then give us 7-10 days of bearish then sideways movement. Wed March 15th I switch back to bullish if my previous call downward pans out

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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #86,483
  • Feb 24, 2023 12:22pm Feb 24, 2023 12:22pm
Quoting Ipradzz
{quote} When do you think it will retrace.. today or next week... Hoping to see 135.00 again
IMO you will see it briefly next week. When it does it will briefly give you the impression you were right to sell then turn again.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #86,484
  • Feb 24, 2023 12:27pm Feb 24, 2023 12:27pm
Quoting Ipradzz
{quote} When do you think it will retrace.. today or next week... Hoping to see 135.00 again
Hard to say right now. Price is still inching higher so I'm sitting on my hands watching. I might not take the trade even if it does set up though since it'll probably be getting pretty close to NY close, and I don't hold trades over the weekend.

...

Just looked at the chart again, starting to come down a bit. If I take a trade I'll zoom into the 5 minute and go for 20 pips with a very tight stop, something like this: (not going to force anything)
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Virtue signaling is for those who are devoid of actual virtue
  • #86,485
  • Feb 24, 2023 12:48pm Feb 24, 2023 12:48pm
Quoting Butters
{quote} Hard to say right now. Price is still inching higher so I'm sitting on my hands watching. I might not take the trade even if it does set up though since it'll probably be getting pretty close to NY close, and I don't hold trades over the weekend. ... Just looked at the chart again, starting to come down a bit. If I take a trade I'll zoom into the 5 minute and go for 20 pips with a very tight stop, something like this: (not going to force anything) {image}
OK...
I think it's has to come down to the bottom of that wick at 135.20.. to advance further.. May be next week then.. Thank you
  • #86,486
  • Feb 24, 2023 12:52pm Feb 24, 2023 12:52pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} IMO you will see it briefly next week. When it does it will briefly give you the impression you were right to sell then turn again.
Yes I am short.. TP @ 135... Next week it is then.. Thank you
  • #86,487
  • Feb 24, 2023 1:19pm Feb 24, 2023 1:19pm
Got a W pattern on the S&P. S&P bullishness means UJ weakness.
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Virtue signaling is for those who are devoid of actual virtue
  • #86,488
  • Feb 24, 2023 3:54pm Feb 24, 2023 3:54pm
No JPY trade for me today. Have a good weekend all.
Virtue signaling is for those who are devoid of actual virtue
  • #86,489
  • Feb 25, 2023 4:08pm Feb 25, 2023 4:08pm
Have opened long and up about 222 pips. Might look for adding more next week but have to see.
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  • #86,490
  • Feb 26, 2023 8:46am Feb 26, 2023 8:46am
Quoting Butters
Got a W pattern on the S&P. S&P bullishness means UJ weakness. {image}
I would agree were it not for the angle of your W. At some point yes, but UJ looks like it is in corrective mode on higher time frames. 137.7 area will be the high here IMO THEN we go south to finish the daily 5 waves down that form the ABCD correction on the Daily time frame. I could be wrong though. The Dollar by itself looks a bit bearish, so it appears we are tied to the bonds.
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #86,491
  • Feb 26, 2023 2:26pm Feb 26, 2023 2:26pm
USDJPY price action on the daily time frame is making a bullish retest of the 135.750/137.430 horizontal resistance zone (red), seen on the weekly time frame. The zone is located at the 38.2/50 Fib zone of the prevailing bearish trading range on the weekly time frame. Nevertheless, looking left, recent technical patterns north of the current location of price action may incentivize northward liquidity engineering and we may still see further bullish move before a southward turnaround. I am short-term bullish, but medium-term bearish, USDJPY.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #86,492
  • Feb 26, 2023 10:55pm Feb 26, 2023 10:55pm
Short 136.4x-7x tp open
  • #86,493
  • Feb 27, 2023 9:08am Feb 27, 2023 9:08am
S&P up, UJ down. I had a first pullback entry on UJ for a short, but I didn't take it because it was ahead of news. Sitting on hands for now and waiting for a setup in either direction.
Virtue signaling is for those who are devoid of actual virtue
  • #86,494
  • Feb 27, 2023 9:53am Feb 27, 2023 9:53am
Quoting Butters
S&P up, UJ down. I had a first pullback entry on UJ for a short, but I didn't take it because it was ahead of news. Sitting on hands for now and waiting for a setup in either direction.
The pain of a blown stop is often less than that of FOMO for me. But I lack patience
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #86,495
  • Feb 27, 2023 10:43am Feb 27, 2023 10:43am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} The pain of a blown stop is often less than that of FOMO for me. But I lack patience
Patience is important. It took me a while to not just learn that, but apply it (which imo is the more difficult part). I've made every mistake in the book multiple times. LOL Trying to front-run a reversal only to get stopped out, FOMOing into a trade only to end up buying the high, you name it. It's not making mistakes that's bad, everyone makes/has made mistakes, it's only natural. The bad part is not learning from mistakes and repeating them over and over. Over the years trading has been a pretty good tool for me in regards to personal development. My emotional intelligence has improved a lot. It forces you to be honest with yourself, take personal accountability for your mistakes (something that is woefully lacking in modern society), taking personal inventory, etc. It's about as good as intensive psychotherapy, and not any cheaper either. LOL

Time for lunch. May the pips be with you.
Virtue signaling is for those who are devoid of actual virtue
  • #86,496
  • Feb 27, 2023 12:14pm Feb 27, 2023 12:14pm
Bull flag on H1? Time will tell.
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Virtue signaling is for those who are devoid of actual virtue
  • #86,497
  • Feb 27, 2023 2:06pm Feb 27, 2023 2:06pm
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #86,498
  • Feb 27, 2023 2:26pm Feb 27, 2023 2:26pm
I'll check it out. It'll make for some good weekend reading. I read a couple of Prechter's books a number of years ago but had a hard time applying it. I do see it play out sometimes but other times it's not so clear to me. Perhaps it's worth a second look.
Virtue signaling is for those who are devoid of actual virtue
  • #86,499
  • Feb 28, 2023 10:41am Feb 28, 2023 10:41am
Watching for a potential long setup for 30 pips or so. Positive divergence on RSI AND a break of the primary downtrend. Watching to see how price behaves. If it goes lower I'll look to the next demand zone at the round number. Ideally price will retest the demand zone and wick out, and form a W pattern. It's the right time of day for this setup too, but I'll have to wait and see how things unfold.
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Virtue signaling is for those who are devoid of actual virtue
  • #86,500
  • Feb 28, 2023 10:54am Feb 28, 2023 10:54am
Went lower. Same plan, different zone.
Virtue signaling is for those who are devoid of actual virtue
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