Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Quoting Plutonite

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Hi all,

Has anybody shorted the GBPUSD as part of a long term move, yet?

Daily charts are showing the beginning of a downturn, and we are at all-time highs. Saw some comments by a few veterans a while back that support me, but I wonder if they have changed their minds due to the continuous readiness of the market to bounce up strongly at any chance.

Cheers

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Quoting notme32

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That was a good news for my long.........

always friday is a good day...................
rumors 5.75 ?

i will buy that rumors......... and maybe out ,a few minute before announcement.

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Quoting notme32

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only... 5.5 ...... , so i better not too agresive then. reduce my long plan. but still long . still up until the statement. IMO.

BTW, thanks bro. have a good week end.
and good partyyyyyyy......

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Quoting cesarnc

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Define "long term". Not because of a 200-250 pips down move a trend reversal must be called out.

Remember that this recent move only, started at 9211 for 920 pips. If you find 9850 is "cable going down", have in mind that 9846 was ultra toppish since november 2006, hard as hell to be printed again....

There is no fundamental supporting either GBP down or USD up (back to 84-87 USD-index levels). And mixed econ. data as we've been seeing are not helping to define where the US economy is going to, thus rates will remain untouched until somebody is able to realize what is going on....

On GBP side, talks were of 5.25% rate toppish in 2007. Jumpped to 5.5%, as now emerging as consensus... Rumors of 5.75% and I've read 6.0% for 2007. Next CPIs and Retail Sales are decisive to show the market whether or not next hike(s) are going to stall the rising inflation, already 0.1% ABOVE UK Comfort Zone / 1.1% above the 2.0% target

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Quoting BIL2205

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So next week if the interest rates are posted higher than expected that means that particular currency will get strong???

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Quoting wshhmm

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Am I wrong for the daily chart?

I saw it has broken. How about your chart?

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Quoting cesarnc

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Rumors of 5.75% as toppish for 2007, not next statement... Next statement is 0.25% consensus, another 0.25% on the cards following. Market's sentiment is next rate statement more is likely to come out 0.5% hike than no-hike.

Have in mind that BOE is known for hitting the market by surprise

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Quote

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LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The Bank of England is seen as a dead-cert to raise its key repo rate another quarter point to a six-year high of 5.50 pct when it concludes its latest rate-setting meeting on Thursday.

All 39 economists polled by Thomson Financial News reckon the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee will lift rates for the fourth time in nine months to their highest level since April 2001 to counter rising inflation, buoyant high street spending and limited spare capacity in the economy.

The news last month that the annual CPI inflation rate unexpectedly rose to 3.1 pct in March shifted market expectations dramatically and forced the BoE governor Mervyn King to write a letter to Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown explaining why inflation had risen by more than one percentage point from the 2.0 pct target.

'Anything other than a 25 basis point rise in the Bank rate to 5.50 pct would amount to a major shock,' said Ross Walker, economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland.

'The February Inflation Report indicated that further tightening would be needed and the realpolitik of CPI inflation hitting 3.1 pct in March is that the MPC needs to be seen to be shoring up its anti-inflation rhetoric with policy action,' he added.

The MPC will be armed with its latest economic projections when it sits for its meeting. The Inflation Report is published in the week following the meeting and will show that the start-off inflation point is much higher than was predicted in the February forecasts. It will also have the April inflation data to hand.

One economist polled is predicting the BoE's first ever half-point hike as a result of the unexpected rise in inflation.

David Brown, chief European economist at Bear Stearns, reckons that the odds should favour a half-point UK rate hike next week and that rates are heading towards 6.00 pct by the end of the year.

'The market would be wrong to underestimate the Bank of Englands hard resolve,' warned Brown.

After Thursday's expected increase, most economists reckon the BoE will keep rates unchanged well into next year as higher borrowing costs take their toll on economic activity and inflation.

Greater insights into the BoE future activity will be garnered from the statement accompanying the rate decision.

Karen Ward, economist at HSBC, reckons the statement will be 'ambiguous', because until inflation is back below target the Committee will not want the market to believe rates have peaked.


FORECASTER MAY END-2007
ABN Amro 5.50 5.75
Bank of America 5.50 5.50
Beacon Economic Forecasting 5.50 5.75
BNP Paribas 5.50 5.75
Bank of New York 5.50 5.75
Barclays Capital 5.50 5.50
Bear Stearns 5.75 6.00
Calyon 5.50 5.50
Capital Economics 5.50 5.75
CEBR 5.50 5.50
CIBC World Markets 5.50 5.50
Citigroup 5.50 5.75
Commerzbank 5.50 5.50
Credit Suisse 5.50 5.75
Daiwa 5.50 5.75
Deutsche Bank 5.50 5.75
Dresdner Kleinwort 5.50 5.75
ECU Group 5.50 5.75
Economist Intelligence Unit 5.50 5.75
Fortis Bank 5.50 5.75
Global Insight 5.50 5.50
Hermes 5.50 5.50
HBOS 5.50 5.50
HSBC 5.50 5.50
ING Barings 5.50 5.75
ITEM Club 5.50 5.50
Insinger de Beaufort 5.50 5.25
Investec Securities 5.50 5.75
JP Morgan Chase 5.50 5.50
Lehman Brothers 5.50 5.75
Lloyds TSB 5.50 5.50
Lombard Street Research 5.50 5.75
Merrill Lynch 5.50 5.50
Morgan Stanley 5.50 5.25
Rabobank 5.50 5.50
Royal Bank of Scotland 5.50 5.50
Schroders Investment Management 5.50 5.50
Standard Chartered 5.50 5.50
UBS 5.50 5.50

Quoting patricio0793

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Hi guys,
wonder if anybody can shed some light..

I was left in a long trade running into the weekend, and have noticed that after the market closed, the price has dropped 200 pips. Now as it was outside of market hours, my stop loss didnt get triggered and im now worried that ive lost a shed load on the market..

Does anybody expect this to come back up before the market open on Monday night??

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