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  • #201
  • May 3, 2007 9:44am May 3, 2007 9:44am
Great pips Francois and WOW - and the way its failing to bounce quickly off these new lows makes me think there´s more downside to come - if not today, then tomorrow before the data, with 9835 now very probable IMO

As a short term trader whose trying to convert to a longer time frame, I´m still getting out too quickly, so I´ll keep watching and learning.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #202
  • May 3, 2007 9:53am May 3, 2007 9:53am
Quoting Islander
Great pips Francois and WOW - and the way its failing to bounce quickly off these new lows makes me think there´s more downside to come - if not today, then tomorrow before the data, with 9835 now very probable IMO

As a short term trader whose trying to convert to a longer time frame, I´m still getting out too quickly, so I´ll keep watching and learning.
As you know I don't normally trade short term but it's where I started as well. ST is far tougher IMO especially if you're risk averse. And I would say that applies to 90% of the members here. Nothing wrong in that. Preservation of capital is near the top of the list. It's just many, IMO, just trade too tight.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #203
  • May 3, 2007 9:58am May 3, 2007 9:58am
Quoting Why Oh Why
Preservation of capital is near the top of the list. It's just many, IMO, just trade too tight.
There's me saying many trade to tight and my SL is now only 6 pips away. LOL. The difference is when it hits the SL it means #2 was worth 140 pips on 5. What I was refering to was initial SL as I know you'd appreciate as a regular visitor here. Thanks for your support.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #204
  • May 3, 2007 10:15am May 3, 2007 10:15am
Quoting Why Oh Why
As you know I don't normally trade short term but it's where I started as well. ST is far tougher IMO especially if you're risk averse. And I would say that applies to 90% of the members here. Nothing wrong in that. Preservation of capital is near the top of the list. It's just many, IMO, just trade too tight.
I think you´ve identified the major problem with ST trading....getting the balance of risk / reward right - 15 pip stops get hit too easily, but sound good vs say a 50 pip target. I can see that with the average daily range now down to about 110 pips - it can make sense to have a stop of around 1/2 of that - 50 or so - with a corresponding target of at least 3 X = 150

Yes, I did notice that you´d trailed your stop and that it was now getting close, but I hate giving away hard earned profit too!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #205
  • May 3, 2007 10:18am May 3, 2007 10:18am
Quoting Why Oh Why
Exited 2 lots for 40 pips. 3 short remain.
Final 3 got 120 pips. The trade was 160 pips for 5 lots. Now back to 1.9877. SL was 9885. Maybe I shouldn't have raised the SL by another 10 pips last time. Oh well. C'est la vie. I will look on the bright side and take the view it's now moving down because it forgot to open my #3 Buy Limit.

Thanks to everyone today for their comments once again. Great to have you here. It's the end of my day. I'll be back in 14 hours.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #206
  • Edited 12:24am May 4, 2007 12:23am | Edited 12:24am
Last month it was extremely strong. Non-Farm payroll is pretty much the most watched, anticipated, and traded economic indicator in the world. GU is currently at a very low level and it is generally very bullish. Still.

A down move is probably going to be a lot more difficult than an upwards move. If the non-farm payroll comes out bad it could easily jump above the 2.0020 level. If it comes out strong, it's questionable whether the 1.9820 level will be broken. It's even questionable if the 1.9850 can be broken that easily.

I still have #3 Buy Limit outstanding.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #207
  • May 4, 2007 12:57am May 4, 2007 12:57am
I think we can expect some volatility into 8:30 and IF some brokers suspect (know?) that the NFP figures are bad for the dollar - say under 50,000 - then a fake out spike down through the 9850 support could be expected - that´s assuming that we are around the 850 support in early US trading.

Either way, I expect some big spikes on the data release if only to let the brokers take out the stradlers. As to what to expect in the European session.....I think staying in the 9850 - 9990 range, so I´ll hope for a small set up around either of those levels.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #208
  • May 4, 2007 1:13am May 4, 2007 1:13am
Quoting Why Oh Why
Last month it was extremely strong. Non-Farm payroll is pretty much the most watched, anticipated, and traded economic indicator in the world. GU is currently at a very low level and it is generally very bullish. Still.

A down move is probably going to be a lot more difficult than an upwards move. If the non-farm payroll comes out bad it could easily jump above the 2.0020 level. If it comes out strong, it's questionable whether the 1.9820 level will be broken. It's even questionable if the 1.9850 can be broken that easily.

I still have #3 Buy Limit outstanding.
Just wondering if these levels are influenced at all by Felix?

Oh yes and I'm also in South Africa. You'll love it I'm sure when you get a chance to visit.
  • #209
  • May 4, 2007 1:13am May 4, 2007 1:13am
For me there may be no new entries today. Breakfast is beckoning. Catch you all later.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #210
  • May 4, 2007 1:16am May 4, 2007 1:16am
Quoting Vantage
Just wondering if these levels are influenced at all by Felix?
Nice of you to drop in Vantage. Regardless of what some may think of him here, I value his opinion and I'll post more later. And the why as to us being on the same page. Have a great day.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #211
  • May 4, 2007 1:29am May 4, 2007 1:29am
Quoting Why Oh Why
Nice of you to drop in Vantage. Regardless of what some may think of him here, I value his opinion and I'll post more later. And the why as to us being on the same page. Have a great day.
Look forward to it, itme also likes Felix a lot for discussions of the news and its effect on price.
  • #212
  • May 4, 2007 8:10am May 4, 2007 8:10am
Quoting Why Oh Why
Nice of you to drop in Vantage. Regardless of what some may think of him here, I value his opinion and I'll post more later. And the why as to us being on the same page. Have a great day.
Quoting Why Oh Why
Last month it was extremely strong. Non-Farm payroll is pretty much the most watched, anticipated, and traded economic indicator in the world. GU is currently at a very low level and it is generally very bullish. Still.

A down move is probably going to be a lot more difficult than an upwards move. If the non-farm payroll comes out bad it could easily jump above the 2.0020 level. If it comes out strong, it's questionable whether the 1.9820 level will be broken. It's even questionable if the 1.9850 can be broken that easily.

I still have #3 Buy Limit outstanding.
Vantage, today's Asian session floor was 1.9851. For me, on this trend, I didn't believe that it would be broken by by the payroll. But even if it was with so much close support sub 1.9845 - which is the 18-day low point - and include 1.9830 (Apr 16 low) and 1.9820 - I believed they would not be breached. And with others equally close, it is my view that these supports will hold and as you note they are the same as Dmitri's. I found comfort in that. It's now too late to comment on the recent numbers. It's after the event.

However, you will note my Buy Limit #3 posted yesterday at 1.9815 SL 1.9715 TP 1.9995 would suggest that I was not certain - as so often is the case in this wonderful market - so if I was wrong I was confident because of the support and my MT bullish view that it would quickly re-trace and I wanted to be part of that. As expected though that order remains unopened. That's of no concern because as most regular visitors here know I don't like opening new positions on Friday.

So there we are, any further points, don't hesitate to comment Vantage. I was back before the numbers and tried to post but the Forex Factory servers were "taking a beating" and I couldn't post.

I did enter a close Buy Stop before the numbers but as I couldn't post it here before it went live I'm not going to refer to it further.

On the week here we have 543 closed pips profit for 4 trades on 5 lots each after allowing for 1 loser of 250. 318 pips last week with similar trade volume and 1 loser as well. I will have a losing week soon but I do not anticipate a losing month. Famous last words, eh? We'll see. Perhaps I'll give it all back next week. Have a great weekend everyone. And thanks to everyone for their feedback. It's all highly valued by me and others.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #213
  • May 4, 2007 8:22am May 4, 2007 8:22am
Thanks for the help WOW, tell me is buy#3 still on? Or shall I cancel it?
  • #214
  • May 4, 2007 8:31am May 4, 2007 8:31am
But it probably won't open next week. I normally leave them in place. Once I left one in place for 4 weeks and it became one of my best ever trades. I'll be putting more in closer to market next week. Hope you were long an hour ago. I was on a Buy Stop which caught a few but I couldn't post it - FF was overloaded. It's closed now. Nice to see you again Francois.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #215
  • May 4, 2007 8:46am May 4, 2007 8:46am
NO, I was not in at all. FF was overloaded and so too my internet link. All my charts crashed about 20 minutes before and I couldnt get them up in time. At least I wasnt short.

Cya next week, have a great weekend
  • #216
  • May 4, 2007 9:10am May 4, 2007 9:10am
You have a great weekend too mate.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #217
  • May 4, 2007 9:10am May 4, 2007 9:10am
Me too, had very intermittant connections with two brokers for over an hour from the London Open....missed the low, but eventually got a small buy for +12 and then bought the retrace after NFP for another 15. So I´m finishing the week on a positive note and will see what Mondays FO brings.

BFN and thanks WOW for your insight and informative posts.

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #218
  • May 4, 2007 9:17am May 4, 2007 9:17am
Connection issues drive me mad too. I'm in a battle over here right now. Connection is critical for forex but equally important in my other markets. Good you made money though. And thanks for your kind comments.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #219
  • May 4, 2007 10:53am May 4, 2007 10:53am
Looking forward to following your views a lot closer from here, cheers have a good 'un!
  • #220
  • May 4, 2007 11:11pm May 4, 2007 11:11pm
Quoting Vantage
Looking forward to following your views a lot closer from here, cheers have a good 'un!
U2.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
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