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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #729,881
  • Feb 17, 2023 5:11am Feb 17, 2023 5:11am
...how strong are the bulls now? They are fighting against the prev 30min sw hi zone currently that extends to 1958, @ which 5min bearish hidden div developed.

5min below
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 10 KB
Trader with an Edge.
  • #729,882
  • Feb 17, 2023 5:18am Feb 17, 2023 5:18am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} you don't directly trade GBP against the Yen And that is exactly why it is the direction gauge for deciding to trade either GBPUSD or USDJPY.
Dave,

Yes, but as I pointed out in the previous post, a rise in the GBPJPY can be due to:

1. Both USDJPY AND GBPUSD rising...
2. USDJPY rising whilst GBPUSD is falling, but the price move in USDJPY is > the downward move of GBPUSD
3. GBPUSD rising whilst USDJPY is falling, but the price move in GBPUSD is > the downward move of USDJPY

That's why it can be difficult to use the GBPJPY (or any cross pair) as a gauge to assess the direction of the majors... there are a minimum of three scenarios for the change in price of the GBPJPY.. in fact there's also:

4. USDJPY is rising but GBPUSD is flat (and vice versa for falling GBPJPY)
5. GBPUSD is rising but USDJPY is flat (and vice versa for falling GBPJPY)
  • #729,883
  • Feb 17, 2023 5:19am Feb 17, 2023 5:19am
GBPUSD
Look at M15 right now. Is this down action merely a pullback to be bought when it ends, or is it a continuation down for a new low?
Do you take a guess at which it is and make an entry?
Do you refer to past history and have a probablility of a direction that is suitably high that you are willing to take the risk and make an entry?
Do you simply WAIT for the pullback to end and the next upswing start and THEN make an entry decision based on how that pullback ended?
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #729,884
  • Feb 17, 2023 5:20am Feb 17, 2023 5:20am
Quoting navk
The " Going " is generally good. Not posting here as the new city Singapore is exciting and spending quality time here {image}
Hi Navk,

That's great to know that you are having good time in Singapore which is a lovely city.

Perhaps we could study trade histories of one trading session that you did, that will be really helpful. Only if you have time.
  • #729,885
  • Feb 17, 2023 5:27am Feb 17, 2023 5:27am
I’d be very surprised if we get over 120 today, there is no appetite for a retrace right now. Maybe for a 20-30 towards 11980 but can’t see much else.
Insane in the Brain..
  • #729,886
  • Feb 17, 2023 5:31am Feb 17, 2023 5:31am
Quoting Headland
{quote} Absolutely, and re davelansing's point... Probability is not guessing, it is playing an edge. No guessing is involved. .
Hi Headland,

No disrespect, but probabilities-and trading edges- are still, technically a "guess". When you flip a fair coin, you absolutely know that you have only two outcomes, and based on the law of large numbers, those two outcomes will eventually converge to half the flips = heads and half the flips = tails. In between, you'll have streaks of various runs of only tails or only heads. But on any given flip, the probability is still 50% of flipping a head and 50% of flipping a tail. So, if I ask you to to predict whether the next flip will be a head or tail, you're still making a guess despite the fact you know absolutely that the outcome is 50-50. Same with trading an edge.

This comes down always to the debate of whether trading is gambling or not. Or trading is making your best "guess" or not. Whenever there is not a 100% assurance of knowing a positive (=profitable) outcome, then it is always a guess.
  • #729,887
  • Feb 17, 2023 5:31am Feb 17, 2023 5:31am
Quoting Jolita
{quote} Hi, sorry qouted spontanious as your names kind of similar : ) , then realised and corected. Where is ScalaFx? He is missed.
No, no. Don't worry. Kind of glad you did, reminded us of him.
  • #729,888
  • Feb 17, 2023 5:33am Feb 17, 2023 5:33am
Quoting davelansing
{quote} Jeezus, there is no "conspiracy"... the EURUSD is dropping because, right now, traders deem that the USD is stronger than the Euro, on the other hand, the GBPUSD is going up, right now, because traders feel that the GBP is stronger than the USD. For the USDJPY, whether the USDJPY is dropping or climbing depends upon how traders deem the strength of the USD against the Yen.
IT'S ALL A CONSPIRACY.
YOU HAVE NO POWER HERE!!


Lol, I know man haha. Sometimes feels like it, but probably isn't true.

Anyway, I think it's Ranging, that's why Euro was going down and Pound up. Because, it's Range and in Range price doesn't make sense.
  • #729,889
  • Feb 17, 2023 5:34am Feb 17, 2023 5:34am
Quoting Mitiblotch
Today is Friday and I shouldn't even be contemplating a buy. But I will trust this falling wedge and buy when it's ready for a break up. Edit: just bought 1928. SL 1828. TP 2028. {image}
This is so slow. Banked at +9 pips. Now pending long order waiting at 1910.
  • #729,890
  • Feb 17, 2023 5:34am Feb 17, 2023 5:34am
Quoting sheva89
{quote} Hi Navk, That's great to know that you are having good time in Singapore which is a lovely city. Perhaps we could study trade histories of one trading session that you did, that will be really helpful. Only if you have time.
My trade starts :

Asia :

Tokyo + 1 hr ( Singapore time 10 am )

London open + 1 hr ( Singapore time 4pm + )

This is when the support or resistance that forms holds.
Intraday only.
  • #729,891
  • Feb 17, 2023 5:34am Feb 17, 2023 5:34am
Quoting noox
{quote} Check out EUR/CHF. In the previous 24h it has 533% of its 30-day average volume. EUR/USD is at 89% and USD/JPY is at 77%.
How do you get those numbers? I've been thinking of adding volume to the system I use to know if there is enough volume to enter or not. Thanks!
  • #729,892
  • Feb 17, 2023 5:37am Feb 17, 2023 5:37am
Very boring PA, waiting for 1.1872 to close out the week and enjoy early weekend
  • #729,893
  • Feb 17, 2023 5:37am Feb 17, 2023 5:37am
Does anyone here have some kind of system that warns a trader price is about to Range? That would help a LOT! The system I use works perfectly when there is no Range.
  • #729,894
  • Feb 17, 2023 5:42am Feb 17, 2023 5:42am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} Long time ago one user noticed oddities in time, price and transaction IDs. And yes, there is multiple accs involved. After all MT4 is a toy, where with dedicated software one can edit everything (s-)he wants I'm surprised why the crowd of newly registered users (defenders) is delayed this time
I guess we will never know the full truth. After all the biggest scammers in the world have been always good with words and skills to manipulate others and to persuade others to follow. I really hope he isn't however it takes too long to post a chart with week's trade history on the chart which gives me more suspicion about all this even we all know it takes few seconds to do that. I hope I'm wrong and I am happy to apologise if that's the case.
I am off to my weekend, I'll check later here. Have a nice weekend all and sorry for causing such havoc here.
  • #729,895
  • Feb 17, 2023 5:42am Feb 17, 2023 5:42am
Quoting davelansing
{quote} Hi Headland, No disrespect, but probabilities-and trading edges- are still, technically a "guess". When you flip a fair coin, you absolutely know that you have only two outcomes, and based on the law of large numbers, those two outcomes will eventually converge to half the flips = heads and half the flips = tails. In between, you'll have streaks of various runs of only tails or only heads. But on any given flip, the probability is still 50% of flipping a head and 50% of flipping a tail. So, if I ask you to to predict whether the next flip...
Really, I consider the whole debate about making an entry in the correct direction (i.e. the direction that subsequently unfolds) moot, because the money comes or goes according to how the trade is MANAGED after the entry. So in my view, we are trade managers, not traders.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #729,896
  • Feb 17, 2023 5:44am Feb 17, 2023 5:44am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Really, I consider the whole debate about making an entry in the correct direction (i.e. the direction that subsequently unfolds) moot, because the money comes or goes according to how the trade is MANAGED after the entry. So in my view, we are trade managers, not traders.
I agree
I'm enjoying the wins because I was once terrified by loses
  • #729,897
  • Feb 17, 2023 5:45am Feb 17, 2023 5:45am
When are we buying again?
I'm enjoying the wins because I was once terrified by loses
  • #729,898
  • Feb 17, 2023 5:46am Feb 17, 2023 5:46am
Quoting SnailFX
Does anyone here have some kind of system that warns a trader price is about to Range? That would help a LOT! The system I use works perfectly when there is no Range.
LOL. Of course not! But statistically, it has been shown that price is ranging about 70% of the time. So just make an assumption that it's about to go ranging and you'll be right more times than you'll be wrong.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #729,899
  • Feb 17, 2023 5:46am Feb 17, 2023 5:46am
Quoting davelansing
{quote} Hi Headland, No disrespect, but probabilities-and trading edges- are still, technically a "guess". When you flip a fair coin, you absolutely know that you have only two outcomes, and based on the law of large numbers, those two outcomes will eventually converge to half the flips = heads and half the flips = tails. In between, you'll have streaks of various runs of only tails or only heads. But on any given flip, the probability is still 50% of flipping a head and 50% of flipping a tail. So, if I ask you to to predict whether the next flip...
It's only a guess if you are (needlessly) guessing/predicting an individual outcome of a known probability/net total outcome over a sample size. If in that coin flip scenario, you describe you already know the 50:50 outcome over a large sample size, what is the need to guess on any individual flip? (In this scenario on that market -there is no edge.) Similarly, when one of my repeating set-ups develops and is confirmed by PA and I make a market entry, I know the historical probability over a given sample size (s) so again, there is no need to guess what will happen on any one particular trade, as over the sample of them there will be a profitable outcome, and if there isn't, then it has either failed such that repeating historical market dynamics/behavior have changed, or that I have not adhered strictly to it's rules and optimised risk/money management associated with it. Slightly going off the point there, but the essential main point is that by playing probabilities, there is no need to guess/predict individual outcomes if you know that the particular set-up is net profitable over any given sample (s) size, based on historical empirical evidence.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #729,900
  • Feb 17, 2023 5:48am Feb 17, 2023 5:48am
Quoting Erto
When are we buying again?
As I posted above, I'm waiting for M15 to end the swing down to make a decision. Or if it continues long enough, then switch to M30 for the same.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
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