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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #729,621
  • Feb 16, 2023 1:18pm Feb 16, 2023 1:18pm
R held at 12075, SnailFX was to the point.
Bee2gether your tp missed by 5, have you locked your profit?

Market so slow and indecisive.
Daily Ema 20 about to cross Ema 50.
Monthly Oscilator positioned towards selling.

Wind direction can change any time.
  • #729,622
  • Feb 16, 2023 1:19pm Feb 16, 2023 1:19pm
Looks like its comedy time which i think is good. See you tomorrow
POSTMASTER
  • #729,623
  • Feb 16, 2023 1:20pm Feb 16, 2023 1:20pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} Waveskie, allow me to point out that we have a bunch of systems used here. EW, HP, range trading, S/D zone, S/R, market profile, coin toss, revenge trading, moving avg.'s, indicators, quantitative analysis (statistical and mathematical modeling), and others I don't recognize. What other system possibly would you recommend for newcomers to this thread?
Thanks Coreg for your view on this.
You're my mentor.

By the way, I believe that it is not the car that is important in winning a race, but rather the driver's skills and abilities.
Allow me to elaborate on this idea. Permission to speak.

In the past, market movements were primarily driven by fundamental factors such as interest rate parity, purchasing power parity, and balance of payments.
However, with the rise of speculators in the market, the majority of market moves are unpredictable.

This unpredictability is mainly due to the psychology of traders.
If every trader could develop rational thinking, then there would be more predictable moves.
Therefore, it is important to study the psychology of the majority to better understand market moves.

In Forex, it is not enough to rely on mathematical and economic knowledge to anticipate market movements.
Rather, one should think like the majority. However, it's important to note that the majority's thinking is not always rational.

To succeed in the market, you should think smarter than the majority in one situation.
Wait until the market itself chooses a direction, and only enter the market once you have confirmation signals.
All technical indicators emphasize the importance of waiting for clear signals before entering the market.
This is a simple rule that all technical studies are based on.

P/S someone told me maths are the key to be successful in trading, I told him mindset.
(was in my other thread)
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #729,624
  • Feb 16, 2023 1:21pm Feb 16, 2023 1:21pm
Quoting Jolita
R held at 12075, ScalaFX was to the point. Bee2gether your tp missed by 5, have you locked your profit? Market so slow and indecisive. Daily Ema 20 about to cross Ema 50. Monthly Oscilator positioned towards selling. Wind direction can change any time.
nope no profit taken. Holding on to longs , will look for 121 tomorrow. Let’s see how it goes. Been a very good 2-3 weeks so looking to finish the week off with a top up lol
Insane in the Brain..
  • #729,625
  • Feb 16, 2023 1:28pm Feb 16, 2023 1:28pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} Waveskie, allow me to point out that we have a bunch of systems used here. EW, HP, range trading, S/D zone, S/R, market profile, coin toss, revenge trading, moving avg.'s, indicators, quantitative analysis (statistical and mathematical modeling), and others I don't recognize. What other system possibly would you recommend for newcomers to this thread?
use it all together!
How to succeed in zero sum game?
  • #729,626
  • Feb 16, 2023 1:33pm Feb 16, 2023 1:33pm
Have you seen Ema's cross on BTC weekly chart? The reaction is unbelievable! Is this a sign for a new crash or a fake play do drag small fishes in? Interesting..
  • #729,627
  • Feb 16, 2023 1:34pm Feb 16, 2023 1:34pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Thanks Coreg for your view on this. You're my mentor. By the way, I believe that it is not the car that is important in winning a race, but rather the driver's skills and abilities. Allow me to elaborate on this idea. Permission to speak. In the past, market movements were primarily driven by fundamental factors such as interest rate parity, purchasing power parity, and balance of payments. However, with the rise of speculators in the market, the majority of market moves are unpredictable. This unpredictability is mainly due to the psychology...
Excuse me,

Pat I LOVE your answer and it's funny but a LONG time ago my mentor (RIP) told me something very similar and I poo-poo him at first preferring to "hang my hat" on the technicals. What's funny is that the psychology talk really transitions into using EW theory.

While I don't disagree with your thoughts I did wonder this and would like your thoughts (as well as others) about the use/rise of AI in Forex trading. With more and more alogrhythims AI could that be responsible for some of the craziness that we are seeing in the markets?
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #729,628
  • Feb 16, 2023 1:38pm Feb 16, 2023 1:38pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Thanks Coreg for your view on this. You're my mentor. By the way, I believe that it is not the car that is important in winning a race, but rather the driver's skills and abilities. Allow me to elaborate on this idea. Permission to speak. In the past, market movements were primarily driven by fundamental factors such as interest rate parity, purchasing power parity, and balance of payments. However, with the rise of speculators in the market, the majority of market moves are unpredictable. This unpredictability is mainly due to the psychology...
Pat, here is your post from December which every aspiring and seasoned trader should read often, IMO. It's classic. I saved it and will post it now without asking for permission b/c we are buddies.
Pat's post.

The most important knowledge to be a good forex trader is to understand Support & Resistance.
If you master this, you can understand any system (with or without indicator).

Find your own method to trade, everyone trades differently.
If may find my system is not suitable for you.

Stay with one system, no system hopping. A different system every week. The rule seems to be "If you get three losing trades in a row, then your system is no good. Time to go find another one."
This is so sad because so many traders fail to recognize two things.

First, and I've said this many times on this forum, is that individual trades are meaningless.
Only a long series of trades has meaning.
It makes no difference whether an individual trade is a winner or a loser.

Second, traders fail to stay with one system long enough to allow its unique statistical edge to manifest itself, nor do they stay with one system long enough to know it inside out, forwards, and backward. I use S&R and thaat's my edge.

A system is not the Holy Grail.
A trader is not the Holy Grail.
Money management is not the Holy Grail.

A system and a trader and money management together are required to create a Holy Grail.

There is no one Holy Grail.
There are an infinite number of them.
As many as there are combinations of system-money management-trader.

There are many good systems available for free. Pick one.
There are many good money management methods for free. Pick one.
There are many bad traders. Fix one, preferably yourself.

IMHO, the reason most traders fail is that they do not correctly identify where the real problem is and take steps to fix the real problem.
From the paragraph above it should be clear that the problem is not with the system, but that's what everyone focuses on.
When one system doesn't work, they try another, and then another, and another.
Well of course changing systems isn't going to fix the problem!

"My car doesn't run. It must be the tires. Let's try some Goodyear tires.
Nope, still doesn't run. Let's try some firestone tires.
Nope, still does run." A dozen tire brands later, the car owner has lost all his money switching tires and gives up on ever being able to drive.
It never occurred to the owner to charge the battery.

Tires are systems.
The charge on the battery is the traders' mindset, emotions, persistence, and consistency.

Do you want step-by-step instructions on how to build your own personal Holy Grail? Okay, here goes:
Combine the following:
ONE system.
ONE currency.
ONE micro lot per trade (live, NOT demo)
ONE trader (that would be you)

Begin trading. After 20 trades, if you haven't made a profit.
Then look at what is wrong with the trader and fix it.
Leave the system, currency, and micro lot per trade alone.
THEY ARE NOT BROKEN, SO DON'T FIX THEM.

After making adjustments to the trader, complete another 20 trades.
Repeat this cycle until the trader is fixed.
Once the trader is running properly, then and ONLY THEN may you try a different system or currency or position size.

It is not the system.
It is you.
Quit focusing on the system and do exactly what you've done here.
Honest, painful self-evaluation.

And yes, go ahead and have a pity party and make statements that you know perfectly well are false about trading.
Do all this. Get it out of your system. Vent.

Despair, depression, defeat, and a profound sense of total worthlessness? You are the poster child!

Got ONE-ONE-ONE as above and with great care and fifty tons of discipline,
See how you can grow the account.
By that time, you will regain confidence.
You have to "fix" yourself by eliminating your problem of using high leverage.

Anyone can fix themselves.
I still find broken parts of my trader self, and when I identify them, I fix them. I don't muck with my system and I don't muck with my money management. I fix the problem where it lies. Inside me, the trader.

Pat CHIKO.
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #729,629
  • Feb 16, 2023 1:38pm Feb 16, 2023 1:38pm
Quoting fxsport
{quote} Excuse me, Pat I LOVE your answer and it's funny but a LONG time ago my mentor (RIP) told me something very similar and I poo-poo him at first preferring to "hang my hat" on the technicals. What's funny is that the psychology talk really transitions into using EW theory. While I don't disagree with your thoughts I did wonder this and would like your thoughts (as well as others) about the use/rise of AI in Forex trading. With more and more alogrhythims AI could that be responsible for some of the craziness that we are seeing in the markets?...
You’re not wrong, AI algorithmic trading has been implemented by institutional traders in 2019. It is a growing thing and is very well priced in the market. I myself was playing around with AI using Python scikit learn. It is very good to implement your brokers price information and to back test your strategy and to use AI to predict the probability of price doing the same pattern
Master your mind. Master Trading.
  • #729,630
  • Feb 16, 2023 1:39pm Feb 16, 2023 1:39pm
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Thanks Coreg for your view on this. You're my mentor. By the way, I believe that it is not the car that is important in winning a race, but rather the driver's skills and abilities. Allow me to elaborate on this idea. Permission to speak. In the past, market movements were primarily driven by fundamental factors such as interest rate parity, purchasing power parity, and balance of payments. However, with the rise of speculators in the market, the majority of market moves are unpredictable. This unpredictability is mainly due to the psychology...

Yes Thats right!

Every session is another story.

Reading fresh PA without any bias is what helped me personally over the years. Everytime I try to predict the market I get much more losses. Why? Because I lock my mind on one direction and miss the PA that is forming right now.

Every price movement matters and wants to tell you what it wants to do next. Your job is to understand what the story is.
How to succeed in zero sum game?
  • #729,631
  • Feb 16, 2023 1:41pm Feb 16, 2023 1:41pm
Quoting fxsport
{quote} Excuse me, Pat I LOVE your answer and it's funny but a LONG time ago my mentor (RIP) told me something very similar and I poo-poo him at first preferring to "hang my hat" on the technicals. What's funny is that the psychology talk really transitions into using EW theory. While I don't disagree with your thoughts I did wonder this and would like your thoughts (as well as others) about the use/rise of AI in Forex trading. With more and more alogrhythims AI could that be responsible for some of the craziness that we are seeing in the markets?...
Hi fxsport, one don't need to go further back than the 2008 US housing crisis to see that these crazy patterns repeats like cycles. Your point on EW Theory is important, because i.m.o Ralph Elliott deserves allot more credit than he was given, especially considering the era in which his seminal work was conducted. Today we have the benefit of technology, he did not have that, and still came up with a sound theory.

Cheers
Guy
  • #729,632
  • Feb 16, 2023 1:45pm Feb 16, 2023 1:45pm
Quoting BeeTogether
{quote} nope no profit taken. Holding on to longs , will look for 121 tomorrow. Let’s see how it goes. Been a very good 2-3 weeks so looking to finish the week off with a top up lol

price is below Y open
price below monthly open
price below weekly open

1.21 tomorrow?
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #729,633
  • Feb 16, 2023 1:46pm Feb 16, 2023 1:46pm
Quoting dempire1
{quote} use it all together!
dempire1, if the good Lord blessed you with enough brain...sure.
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #729,634
  • Feb 16, 2023 1:50pm Feb 16, 2023 1:50pm
Quoting donfriday
{quote} price is below Y open price below monthly open price below weekly open 1.21 tomorrow?
it’s Friday crazy swings both up and downs. My b/e is 12075 so even if I see that I’d be happy before going short lol

Also according to dailyfx no red sticker data either
Insane in the Brain..
  • #729,635
  • Feb 16, 2023 1:56pm Feb 16, 2023 1:56pm
Quoting BeeTogether
{quote} it’s Friday crazy swings both up and downs. My b/e is 12075 so even if I see that I’d be happy before going short lol Also according to dailyfx no red sticker data either

yeah friday trading is hard ...i often lose money
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #729,636
  • Feb 16, 2023 2:06pm Feb 16, 2023 2:06pm
Quoting donfriday
{quote} yeah friday trading is hard ...i often lose money {image}
So you don trade on friday?
Lou Vincii Code
  • #729,637
  • Feb 16, 2023 2:09pm Feb 16, 2023 2:09pm
That was a wicked spike!
  • #729,638
  • Feb 16, 2023 2:14pm Feb 16, 2023 2:14pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} dempire1, if the good Lord blessed you with enough brain...sure.
ooh I wish. My IQ is very very very low
How to succeed in zero sum game?
  • #729,639
  • Feb 16, 2023 2:15pm Feb 16, 2023 2:15pm
Quoting donfriday
{quote} price is below Y open price below monthly open price below weekly open 1.21 tomorrow?
Don, good observation, thanks for a tip.
  • #729,640
  • Feb 16, 2023 2:24pm Feb 16, 2023 2:24pm
Sorry H4.. you were right..
H4 knew Bullard will appear later and say he's also for 50bps.

LoL

I am actually testing something out at the moment. I think what I'm doing makes sense, we'll see..
Final solution to how to use MA's in the best possible way.

Uf, this will take time.. nevermind.
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