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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #728,801
  • Feb 14, 2023 10:01am Feb 14, 2023 10:01am
Quoting Indigo45
{quote} Although figures are lower, but not at the lower pace. sp core CPI MOM was same as previous month and higher than two months before reading. This changed the sentiment and expectations are Fed could think 50 BPs rate hike as jobs and manufacturing data is still strong but inflation is not on the definite lowering path.
Agree, only problem I see is this, the BP rate trajectory into year end has been known for a while, so most of that has been priced in by the market already i.m.o. I see dollar weakness as we run into month-end re-balancing. March could present it's own challenges, but we trade it one day at a time.

Trade Safe
Guy
  • #728,802
  • Feb 14, 2023 10:03am Feb 14, 2023 10:03am
Had my first buy hit TP when the CPI came, then price dipped a lot and went back up a lot too, i got a decent buy re-entry and near 50% TP distance but now price crashing down again.

What's happening?
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/NGplus/freedom-you-deserve/11268620
Freedom you deserve. All Time Return: 50.4%
  • #728,803
  • Feb 14, 2023 10:03am Feb 14, 2023 10:03am
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  • #728,804
  • Feb 14, 2023 10:06am Feb 14, 2023 10:06am
Quoting Guy1969
{quote} Agree, only problem I see is this, the BP rate trajectory into year end has been known for a while, so most of that has been priced in by the market already i.m.o. I see dollar weakness as we run into month-end re-balancing. March could present it's own challenges, but we trade it one day at a time. Trade Safe Guy
Yes you are very right...50BPs is already priced in on release of strong jobs data. Price gone down...a pull back and this CPI is just going to retest some lows. Now destiny is towards North.
  • #728,805
  • Feb 14, 2023 10:07am Feb 14, 2023 10:07am
Damn SL got taken at b/e back in again still looking for 121
Insane in the Brain..
  • #728,806
  • Feb 14, 2023 10:15am Feb 14, 2023 10:15am
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If price fails to establish now low lower than previous. Change of Character is confirmed and Pull Back on Daily and weekly TF is complete...as fundamental support is over to USD.

Edit: 21400 is strong support.
  • #728,807
  • Feb 14, 2023 10:15am Feb 14, 2023 10:15am
Quoting BeeTogether
Damn SL got taken at b/e back in again still looking for 121
Moved too early to 1.217 hah, price tends to pullback slightly after strong impulse.

I'm still holding my short, if it hits my TP target below 1.21 then I'm actually done for the week lol.
Exhausted
  • #728,808
  • Feb 14, 2023 10:16am Feb 14, 2023 10:16am
Quoting Guy1969
{quote} Agree, only problem I see is this, the BP rate trajectory into year end has been known for a while, so most of that has been priced in by the market already i.m.o. I see dollar weakness as we run into month-end re-balancing. March could present it's own challenges, but we trade it one day at a time. Trade Safe Guy
Spot on Guy, and I don't refer to that specific market event but the market as a whole. We just never know if fundamentals have been priced in or not. I would be too scared to trade if I factored all these circumstances in. Price is king and I believe that fundamentals are factored into price way before the time, way beyond my understanding.
Cheers.
Trade to trade another day
  • #728,809
  • Feb 14, 2023 10:20am Feb 14, 2023 10:20am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Spot on Guy, and I don't refer to that specific market event but the market as a whole. We just never know if fundamentals have been priced in or not. I would be too scared to trade if I factored all these circumstances in. Price is king and I believe that fundamentals are factored into price way before the time, way beyond my understanding. Cheers.
Absolutely right sir... fundamentals are shown to the traders at specific time...MM already know them and planned the manipulation of price for liquidity hunts.
As you said Market as a whole is the key to success...
Regards
  • #728,810
  • Feb 14, 2023 10:24am Feb 14, 2023 10:24am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Spot on Guy, and I don't refer to that specific market event but the market as a whole. We just never know if fundamentals have been priced in or not. I would be too scared to trade if I factored all these circumstances in. Price is king and I believe that fundamentals are factored into price way before the time, way beyond my understanding. Cheers.
By the way...I was looking for some of your posts regarding "how to see the big picture...market as a whole" (but failed to find yet)... I like and want to learn how to use larger time frames to see big picture and scalp in the direction of that. Any suggestion of your previous post...readings...videos will be strong support.
Regards
  • #728,811
  • Feb 14, 2023 10:24am Feb 14, 2023 10:24am
Quoting Elysion
{quote} Moved too early to 1.217 hah, price tends to pullback slightly after strong impulse. I'm still holding my short, if it hits my TP target below 1.21 then I'm actually done for the week lol.
You me too. Let’s see where it goes have a few more shorts ready over 122 let’s see where we go
Insane in the Brain..
  • #728,812
  • Feb 14, 2023 10:25am Feb 14, 2023 10:25am
Quoting SnailFX
{quote} TP-ed all. Excellent! NO MORE TRADING TODAY. USD will probably continue going up for the rest of the day, but I have my profit target reached and I don't care if it does or not. Tommorow is a new day. 30M confirmed Short on EUR/USD. That wick up got my SL unfortunately. As well as GBP/USD. H1 on USD/JPY confirmed Long and was right.
Hi! I'm sorry if I'm bugging you on this one. I want to learn as much as I could from traders in this forum. How are you able to say that long on UJ was confirmed in H1 and you are correct? I think I'm just missing something here since in my view, trading long is still not confirmed until it breaks thru resistance at the 133 area. currently, it still not going up, actually its about to make a lower low as of now if the red candle materializes. Please help enlighten me on this one. Thanks a lot.
Fortune favors the brave.
  • #728,813
  • Feb 14, 2023 10:28am Feb 14, 2023 10:28am
Quoting BeeTogether
{quote} You me too. Let’s see where it goes have a few more shorts ready over 122 let’s see where we go
mate its the time to sell and hold, as long as you can tolerate SL above 1.2240 keep holding ur shorts, by friday we will be talking about if price will reach 1.1890 or 1.1810
  • #728,814
  • Feb 14, 2023 10:29am Feb 14, 2023 10:29am
Quoting mngnglkl
{quote} I think you are missing the resistance in the area as shown by the two areas to the left of your chart. Won't trade long until that is cleared.
I don't think about R and S like some people do. If I get the signal to go Long or Short, that means the system is suggesting going Long or Short at that moment and is highly likely the best price or close to it to enter the trade.

When I talk about R and S, I use the lines on the Chart which represent Fibo levels in real time. I have the most common Fibo levels on the chart, so as not to get confused with too many lines. I like simple chart with only essential lines on it.

Now, Resistance and Support..
They only work until they don't, right? Same for the trend lines.

I have to say though, there is a method of trading using R and S, but you have to know what to look for. You definitely need experience to know if the breakout is fake or is it real, if it's real is the retest gonna come? Will you wait for the retest to happen or potentially miss the trade, because sometimes it doesn't happen?

Am I right the price can break R or S without retracing back to retest?

Let's try this example!

What would you do here and why? Thanks!
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  • #728,815
  • Feb 14, 2023 10:31am Feb 14, 2023 10:31am
Quoting fxmasterdxb
{quote} mate its the time to sell and hold, as long as you can tolerate SL above 1.2240 keep holding ur shorts, by friday we will be talking about if price will reach 1.1890 or 1.1810
good point I will actually do that.
Insane in the Brain..
  • #728,816
  • Feb 14, 2023 10:32am Feb 14, 2023 10:32am
Quoting fxmasterdxb
{quote} mate its the time to sell and hold, as long as you can tolerate SL above 1.2240 keep holding ur shorts, by friday we will be talking about if price will reach 1.1890 or 1.1810
Do note that there's GBP CPI tomorrow. Not sure where it will bring this pair to.
And I'm still not fond of swing trading so I prefer closing it at the end of the day if possible.
Exhausted
  • #728,817
  • Feb 14, 2023 10:33am Feb 14, 2023 10:33am
Quoting mngnglkl
{quote} Hi! I'm sorry if I'm bugging you on this one. I want to learn as much as I could from traders in this forum. How are you able to say that long on UJ was confirmed in H1 and you are correct? I think I'm just missing something here since in my view, trading long is still not confirmed until it breaks thru resistance at the 133 area. currently, it still not going up, actually its about to make a lower low as of now if the red candle materializes. Please help enlighten me on this one. Thanks a lot.
Read above!
Also, it's not me who is right, it's the system.

Without the system I would never make any money and that's the truth.

I mean, I don't know how successful I would be without it.. doubt it.
  • #728,818
  • Feb 14, 2023 10:36am Feb 14, 2023 10:36am
Quoting SnailFX
{quote} I don't think about R and S like some people do. If I get the signal to go Long or Short, that means the system is suggesting going Long or Short at that moment and is highly likely the best price or close to it to enter the trade. When I talk about R and S, I use the lines on the Chart which represent Fibo levels in real time. I have the most common Fibo levels on the chart, so as not to get confused with too many lines. I like simple chart with only essential lines on it. Now, Resistance and Support.. They only work until they don't, right?...
Typical retailers would short?
I haven't been using SnR that much compared to my previous trading methods.

Supply and Demand looks more promising now along with system confirmation + price action.
Exhausted
  • #728,819
  • Feb 14, 2023 10:38am Feb 14, 2023 10:38am
the wonderful 200 hourly ema
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6 winners X 15 pips = 90 pips profit
1 loss X 10 pips = 10 pips loss
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yes yes yes
  • #728,820
  • Feb 14, 2023 10:38am Feb 14, 2023 10:38am
Quoting SnailFX
{quote} I don't think about R and S like some people do. If I get the signal to go Long or Short, that means the system is suggesting going Long or Short at that moment and is highly likely the best price or close to it to enter the trade. When I talk about R and S, I use the lines on the Chart which represent Fibo levels in real time. I have the most common Fibo levels on the chart, so as not to get confused with too many lines. I like simple chart with only essential lines on it. Now, Resistance and Support.. They only work until they don't, right?...
Thank you very much for clearing this up. made a lot of sense.

Regarding your question, if I based it on my system, I will wait for the price to break the line you drew then wait for the price to come back to the area. Then if there is a valid entry for me to go long like an engulfing candle I will enter the trade.

Also, I will only go short if there's an indication that it would be going down like a double top or lower high and lower low for example.
Fortune favors the brave.
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