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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #12,021
  • May 4, 2007 3:59am May 4, 2007 3:59am
Dont you think that there are al least 50 easy pips to scalp seconds before the news?
  • #12,022
  • May 4, 2007 4:03am May 4, 2007 4:03am
Only Gods knows...


Quoting ashlee_17
Dont you think that there are al least 50 easy pips to scalp seconds before the news?
  • #12,023
  • May 4, 2007 4:05am May 4, 2007 4:05am
Quoting PandoraBox
Only Gods knows...
I don't think God knows... Even the Devil respects NFP
  • #12,024
  • May 4, 2007 4:24am May 4, 2007 4:24am
looks like NFP gonna be a hot ("hell") zone. better stay on the sideway.
  • #12,025
  • May 4, 2007 4:31am May 4, 2007 4:31am
Cable could be setting up by going low and then shoot up after NFP. Like yesterday was going up till the news and then fell.
Kumar
  • #12,026
  • May 4, 2007 4:39am May 4, 2007 4:39am
Quoting gkumar
Cable could be setting up by going low and then shoot up after NFP. Like yesterday was going up till the news and then fell.
Kumar
I don't think so...
Cable will either be below 1.9750 or above 1.20000
however, we could see some choppy action a few seconds before the NFP
  • #12,027
  • May 4, 2007 4:41am May 4, 2007 4:41am
Quoting ashlee_17
Dont you think that there are al least 50 easy pips to scalp seconds before the news?
Be prepared for considerable volatility in the half hour before NFP and on release of the data......that´ll give the brokers a great opportunity to spike it hard each way to take out the news stradlers and stops.

Often the true move does not start for an hour - and sometimes not until Monday, depending on how "in line" the data is.

IMO you need to be a specialist news trader with a direct Bloomberg or Reuters feed to try trading the spikes - and a broker that doesnt freeze, lock you out, requote, increase spreads etc......please let me know when you find one!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #12,028
  • May 4, 2007 4:41am May 4, 2007 4:41am
I usually try to scalp a few pips seconds before the news come out
  • #12,029
  • May 4, 2007 4:44am May 4, 2007 4:44am
Quoting Islander
Be prepared for considerable volatility in the half hour before NFP and on release of the data......that´ll give the brokers a great opportunity to spike it hard each way to take out the news stradlers and stops.

Often the true move does not start for an hour - and sometimes not until Monday, depending on how "in line" the data is.

IMO you need to be a specialist news trader with a direct Bloomberg or Reuters feed to try trading the spikes - and a broker that doesnt freeze, lock you out, requote, increase spreads etc......please let me know when you find one!
There is an easy way to do it... Usually before the NFP cable will go both ways up 20 to 30 pips and down 20 to 30 pips. You can place an order to SCALP those pips both ways.
  • #12,030
  • May 4, 2007 4:47am May 4, 2007 4:47am
i think if at 8:30 cable is around 9870 or higher it will go down

if it's at lod it will go up and could then come down again like 8/12
  • #12,031
  • May 4, 2007 4:49am May 4, 2007 4:49am
Quoting camisa
i think if at 8:30 cable is around 9870 or higher it will go down

if it's at lod it will go up and could then come down again like 8/12
why would it go up then down?
  • #12,032
  • May 4, 2007 4:53am May 4, 2007 4:53am
Quoting ashlee_17
why would it go up then down?
well, because trend is down and if it goes up it would be a mere reaction on news that would last 1/2 hours and then that effect would fade and it would resume its down trend

remember guys, we've been around 2.0000 for several days, nothing like NFP to throw price out of this range, maybe out of 2.0000 magnet force and initiate a nice trend
  • #12,033
  • May 4, 2007 4:56am May 4, 2007 4:56am
Quoting camisa
well, because trend is down and if it goes up it would be a mere reaction on news that would last 1/2 hours and then that effect would fade and it would resume its down trend

remember guys, we've been around 2.0000 for several days, nothing like NFP to throw price out of this range, maybe out of 2.0000 magnet force and initiate a nice trend
Well, that all depends on the NFP numbers.
But what will happen if NFP is in line with expectations?

I also have to disagree with you when you say that the trend is DOWN. I still think that we have a bullish market when it comes to EUR and cable.
  • #12,034
  • May 4, 2007 4:58am May 4, 2007 4:58am
From UBS Bank :

Quote

The most recent business climate numbers offer tentative signs that
growth picked up in April. Both ISM business climate indices rebounded
in April. However, a sizable drop in pending home sales in March
points to more housing weakness. We think growth will accelerate
slightly in 2Q07, but caution on expecting a sharp growth revival.
Today's labor market report will prove crucial to assess the strength
of the US economy and the timing of our Fed call, as we expect a first
cut in June.

The

ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rebounded by
more than expected to 56.0 in April after 52.4 in March. While it still stands
below its 2006 average of 58.0, the rebound corroborates the comeback of
the ISM Manufacturing index in April. The latter jumped unexpectedly to
54.7 from 50.9 in March. Taken together they point to an acceleration in
growth in early 2Q07. We agree, as we expect drags from inventories and
residential investment to fade in 2Q07. However, we are currently penciling
in an increase in real GDP of 1.9% q/q annualized in 2Q07, which would
not be a huge acceleration from the 1.3% reported in 1Q07 and would still
be well below US growth potential of 3%. Other recent developments also
caution on expecting a sharp growth revival. Pending homes sales, reported
on Monday, fell by 4.9% m/m in March. They tend to lead existing
homes sales by about 1 to 2 months and thus point to renewed weakness in
sales.
The next big stress test for the US economy will be the labor market report
for April, released today. We expect payrolls to rise by 75k (consensus:
100k), in sharp contrast to the 1Q07 average of 152k. Specifically, we expect job losses to become more pronounced in the residential construction
sector, as housing completions have recently fallen close to housing start
levels. The unemployment rate should tick up to 4.5% from 4.4%
(consensus: 4.5%) on the back of tepid job growth and mark the beginning
of a gradual ascent.


  • #12,035
  • May 4, 2007 5:01am May 4, 2007 5:01am
Quoting camisa
well, because trend is down
Excusez-moi?
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #12,036
  • May 4, 2007 5:04am May 4, 2007 5:04am
Quoting ashlee_17
I don't think so...
Cable will either be below 1.9750 or above 1.20000
however, we could see some choppy action a few seconds before the NFP
This is based on NFP being off the mark by a large margin one way or the other, isn't it? What if it is as predicted?
Kumar
  • #12,037
  • May 4, 2007 5:11am May 4, 2007 5:11am
Quoting SeekingLight
Excusez-moi?
you're just forgetting something: time-frame... there's a trend per time-frame don't forget that

your time frame isn't the same as mine, clearly
  • #12,038
  • May 4, 2007 5:15am May 4, 2007 5:15am
Quoting ashlee_17
Well, that all depends on the NFP numbers.
But what will happen if NFP is in line with expectations?

I also have to disagree with you when you say that the trend is DOWN. I still think that we have a bullish market when it comes to EUR and cable.
NFP data is never inline, even if the headline is, the revision will not be, then there are the other components of the report, such as wage inflation, and jobless % rate. Market will overreact to something or another in this report.
  • #12,039
  • May 4, 2007 5:19am May 4, 2007 5:19am
The calm that preceeds the tornado is here
  • #12,040
  • May 4, 2007 5:32am May 4, 2007 5:32am
anyone plans to open positions right when the news come out and then ride with glide?
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