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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #11,961
  • May 3, 2007 12:39pm May 3, 2007 12:39pm
Quoting deboooo2005
Japanese session is off ... holiday all day
Yep... and end of day here in Europe...
Go for a Jack Daniels...

Btw : what did u feel about NFP tomorrow ?
  • #11,962
  • May 3, 2007 1:15pm May 3, 2007 1:15pm
NFP? Cooked numbers. Dollar bull.
  • #11,963
  • May 3, 2007 1:25pm May 3, 2007 1:25pm
Hi all...
When will everyone go EUR/USD long again?? 1.3550??
  • #11,964
  • May 3, 2007 1:33pm May 3, 2007 1:33pm
Just broke down 3550. which was a strong support on my charts. I was tempting to go long but now i am in doubts. Let's see if it is a legit breakdown or just heavy testing.
  • #11,965
  • May 3, 2007 1:35pm May 3, 2007 1:35pm
Quoting x3m
Just broke down 3550. which was a strong support on my charts. I was tempting to go long but now i am in doubts. Let's see if it is a legit breakdown or just heavy testing.
how far down do you think it can go?
Is it wise to go short?
  • #11,966
  • May 3, 2007 1:48pm May 3, 2007 1:48pm
i wouldn't go long term short unless 13480 is broken, i think that is the ultimate support for the up trend...(my opinion only)

risky trade would be to short here, tp at 3510-3500 but i'm not playing that, i rather load up on longs and cut my losses if 3480 is breached.

cable i'm unsure about, i think it has room to go down further but again i'm unsure.

for some reason i also feel nonfarm is going to be dollar positive... it shouldn't be imo, but i'm accustomed to the dollar doing whatever it needs to make money for the big guys.

anyone into conspiracies?? amero theory etc... stuff like this makes me think that regardless of how people say forex cannot be manipulated, i think it can.

enough rambling from me.
  • #11,967
  • May 3, 2007 1:52pm May 3, 2007 1:52pm
Quoting ashlee_17
how far down do you think it can go?
Is it wise to go short?
I would not go short today. Thinking of taking long before 3560 but the profit may not be worthwhile the risk at this hour of the day.
  • #11,968
  • May 3, 2007 1:59pm May 3, 2007 1:59pm
I would't be surprised to see EUR/USD completing its channel on weekly today by reaching 1.3400.
  • #11,969
  • May 3, 2007 2:06pm May 3, 2007 2:06pm
Probably it is best not to take any risks right now. Everyone is sitting tight before the NFP and since USD is the determining factor here, both EUR and GBP will move in sync till after the dust sets after the NFP. Those who will survide the NFP should be able to spot the trend. Before the NFP the only movement will probably come from those who will exit trades to watch NFP craze from the sidewalk, and there aren't many pips to catch here, so I guess EUR will stay within 3550-3565 and GBP within 9865-9885 till at least tomorrow's London open. Unless, some info will leak and create premature panic. But again, I would not want to trade in these conditions. See you all tomorrow!
  • #11,970
  • May 3, 2007 2:17pm May 3, 2007 2:17pm
Perhaps we need to change this thread´s title to "Cable / Euro update" - and now a drop of 2 x daily range before midnight......its enough to drive a good man to drink.....pass the bottle please.

Sore head permitting, see you tomorrow for the FO

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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #11,971
  • May 3, 2007 2:31pm May 3, 2007 2:31pm
Quoting Islander
Perhaps we need to change this thread´s title to "Cable / Euro update" - and now a drop of 2 x daily range before midnight......its enough to drive a good man to drink.....pass the bottle please.

Sore head permitting, see you tomorrow for the FO

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Mind sharing the booze?
  • #11,972
  • May 3, 2007 3:16pm May 3, 2007 3:16pm
tomorrow 3 possible scenario (GBP-USD)
1. move around 1.9975-2.0075 and keep trying to break high minutes before the NFP so when the result turn bad gbp will make only a few point higher.
-or-
2. moving low until 1.9850-1.9800 until the Nfp Result out (since the forcast were 100k from 180k last month) cable probably bullish around 2.0000-2.050
-or-
3. stay around 1.9860-1.9900 before Nfp and make a choppy trading sessions...

any comment??
  • #11,973
  • May 3, 2007 3:28pm May 3, 2007 3:28pm
It's an obvious broadening triangle on Cable. December high->January low->January high->March low->April high. If it's now in the process of turning into a diamond then the next target is obviously to match January low at 1.9260.
  • #11,974
  • May 3, 2007 3:35pm May 3, 2007 3:35pm
Quoting details
2. moving low until 1.9850-1.9800 until the Nfp Result out (since the forcast were 100k from 180k last month) cable probably bullish around 2.0000-2.050
What happens if, since the US #s are supposed to be bad, there is instead a positive surprise, just as we saw with some of the US data this morning which caused this spike down in the first place? If people are expecting lower numbers, 2 things could happen - the lower numbers could be correct, but since they were expected, currnecy doesn't move much OR the numbers aren't as low as people were expecting, so the USD continues to strengthen, wiping out more support levels for GBPUSD...
  • #11,975
  • May 3, 2007 3:36pm May 3, 2007 3:36pm
Quoting details
tomorrow 3 possible scenario (GBP-USD)
1. move around 1.9975-2.0075 and keep trying to break high minutes before the NFP so when the result turn bad gbp will make only a few point higher.
-or-
2. moving low until 1.9850-1.9800 until the Nfp Result out (since the forcast were 100k from 180k last month) cable probably bullish around 2.0000-2.050
-or-
3. stay around 1.9860-1.9900 before Nfp and make a choppy trading sessions...

any comment??
3 + pre-news (5 to go) panic pushing Cable up backed on forecast. After release, the usual shooting spree, depending on the figure, and more important the revision.

ADP was way below expectation, so if I have to bet, I'd say NFP below 100K. Revision will call the shots, though.
  • #11,976
  • May 3, 2007 4:37pm May 3, 2007 4:37pm
How reliable is the ADP report? Have a read in this topic some good points raised

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=28029
  • #11,977
  • May 3, 2007 4:42pm May 3, 2007 4:42pm
Quoting el_duende
How reliable is the ADP report? Have a read in this topic some good points raised

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=28029
Not reliable since a month ADP came out -40K and NFP 100+

I just GUESSED.
  • #11,978
  • May 3, 2007 5:00pm May 3, 2007 5:00pm
Housing may be lousy, but I am getting reports that Restaurants are doing well in the hiring department.


Quick Q: Are you still GBPUSD Bullish? Lower Highs consistently. Im trying to short it but not at this level
  • #11,979
  • May 3, 2007 5:16pm May 3, 2007 5:16pm
since gu 9900 has gone, eu 3550 is key level for both of them.

if below 3550, I would be short there.
  • #11,980
  • May 3, 2007 5:30pm May 3, 2007 5:30pm
Quoting BurgerKing
Housing may be lousy, but I am getting reports that Restaurants are doing well in the hiring department.


Quick Q: Are you still GBPUSD Bullish? Lower Highs consistently. Im trying to short it but not at this level
I'm bullish in the long run always... But the lack of fundies and consistently dollar-positive news is postponing the action...

To remember that good part of the run from 9211 to 0131 was "dollar-bearish" sentiment, added to strong GB fundamentals...

We have to see the bottom of this dollar frenzy now. May be on the back of bad NFP

It all depends on how the market will get into position ahead of the announcement. Above or below 9900

If below 9900, a good NFP may take us all the way down to the dreaded 4hr 250EMA, an usual good support resistance... Then all the way up again....

At 9750-9800 Cable has to be a cheap commodity, specially with the upcoming rate hikes...

9780/9800 area is 38 fib from 9211-0131 and 61 fib 9590-0131, so a clutch of supports

So far 50% fib 9590-0131 held the move (actual 9860 area)

To have in mind that news on Cheney visiting the middle-east next week is overall dollar bearish and might affect carry trades, too.
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