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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #727,201
  • Feb 8, 2023 7:18am Feb 8, 2023 7:18am
Quoting Guy1969
{quote} The market maker always makes traders see what there is not, that is why I trade structure, and not support/resistance. They literally took more than a week to set the bears up. Thanks, but this swing trader will hold longs. Cheers Guy
You are not looking At the fundamental picture guy adami!!!! Lol
  • #727,202
  • Feb 8, 2023 7:19am Feb 8, 2023 7:19am
Quoting ninner
{quote} You are not looking At the fundamental picture guy adami!!!! Lol
I consider myself a brilliant fundamental trader bro, I guess time will tell then.

Cheers
Guy
  • #727,203
  • Feb 8, 2023 7:20am Feb 8, 2023 7:20am
oh my.. again the consolidation sideways trapped me down
  • #727,204
  • Feb 8, 2023 7:21am Feb 8, 2023 7:21am
Short XAUUSD, TP open.
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  • #727,205
  • Feb 8, 2023 7:21am Feb 8, 2023 7:21am
I've been thinking about GBP/USD lately due to some experienced members actually expecting to see the this pair reaching 1.30 and even 1.35.

Now, saying this is impossible is short-minded.

Our best clue will be the close of this Weekly candle.
If Weekly candle closes below 1.22, chances of 1.30 or 1.35 happening will be greatly reduced.

If, however we witness Weekly closing above 1.22 I would say then despite Daily confirming Short, 1.30 becomes a very real possibility.

Monthly greatest R is 1.26 and this won't be broken as easily at all if price can reach this level.

Next Week is likely crucial for this pair due to CPI data coming out and Fed is definitely interested in those numbers.

I am still Bearish however!
  • #727,206
  • Feb 8, 2023 7:22am Feb 8, 2023 7:22am
Quoting palpite
Sell - 1.2105

trade closed - 1.2085
Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
  • #727,207
  • Feb 8, 2023 7:26am Feb 8, 2023 7:26am
Quoting Ferna
{quote} I think i'll just take Wavegarrick's word for it, since he has traded the longest. What you are describing are the methods, not the purpose. All the brokers describe their account type as either "Hedged" or "Netting". What do they mean by this if not the ability to have multiple positions in opposite direction. You offset risk in a timeframe. "You secure a second position that you expect to have a negative correlation with your first position—that is, when your existing position goes down, this second position will go up. This mitigates...
Hi Ferna,
I wouldn't get carried away by definitions and so forth. Hedging is a word used by brokers and traders. If you buy with 1 lot and price turns on you and you sell with the same lot you have effectively closed your trade at a loss. Catch22 is correct in saying, why don't you just close the buy trade at a loss? I personally don't hedge like this and prefer to close my trade at a loss. We are all different and some traders prefer to hedge and wait until the dust settles and they can make an informed decision to get out of their loss. As stupid as this may sound. Some traders like to move their stops when price gets close to their stop loss and find opening a trade in the opposite direction better for them.
It's you as a human being and your psyche. Whichever way works for you.
I only hedge positions that are in profit and I feel that there will be a temporary pullback. This allows me time for the dust to settle and make a more informed decision to assess market direction and hopefully get my trade entry right.
As for double charges I don't pay commissions on my trades and sell swaps offset my buy swaps.
Anyway, let's move off this topic. There is no right or wrong in hedging. It is up to each trader and what suites them best.
Cheers.
Trade to trade another day
  • #727,208
  • Feb 8, 2023 7:27am Feb 8, 2023 7:27am
Quoting Robinhood1
{quote} 13 and 48 periods EMA's were supposed to be the most profitable combination according to a study that I read. This is an important obaservation: 48/13 ~4.
486 on 5 min tf buy everytime it drop below on an uptrend. selling viceversa[/quote]

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POSTMASTER
  • #727,209
  • Feb 8, 2023 7:28am Feb 8, 2023 7:28am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} I copy you. Thanks for the signal...
GU

It's dragging its feet for five hours, just in ranging.
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #727,210
  • Feb 8, 2023 7:29am Feb 8, 2023 7:29am
Quoting Ferna
{quote} What can he say? wasn't Powell the star of the show yesterday? Do they control different policies? sorry my knowledge base not so good.
Yes Powell was the star of the show yesterday, but investor is always looking for information to confirm their bias or proof that their bias are wrong, after what Powell said yesterday, I would say all eyes are then focus on what the next governor would say, if he says the exact same thing as Powell, then okay, market already priced that in by now, but imagine if he go extreme hawkish and says natural rate should be 5.75% on the back of the recent NFP report or go extreme dovish and say the NFP data was most likely a once off thing and thus he do not agree with any further rate hike than previously communicated as necessary. These sort of comments from a senior fed official made publicly can send markets tanking or soaring, because at the end of the day, while Powell is the main man, the rate decisions are done via a majority vote within the FOMC committee, so knowing where each governor stands will allow the market to adjust and forecast the most likely outcome for the upcoming rate decision.
  • #727,211
  • Feb 8, 2023 7:33am Feb 8, 2023 7:33am
Let's see if 1.2130 will be the top.

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Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
  • #727,212
  • Feb 8, 2023 7:36am Feb 8, 2023 7:36am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Hi Ferna, I wouldn't get carried away by definitions and so forth. Hedging is a word used by brokers and traders. If you buy with 1 lot and price turns on you and you sell with the same lot you have effectively closed your trade at a loss. Catch22 is correct in saying, why don't you just close the buy trade at a loss? I personally don't hedge like this and prefer to close my trade at a loss. We are all different and some traders prefer to hedge and wait until the dust settles and they can make an informed decision to get out of their loss....
Alright, just like simple words. Just following what i learnt in books, i am usually very solo.
It's just annoying getting into side-discussions about words, it halts the real discussion even due all parts know what is really being meant with the words.
Words should be simple.
I agree with your opinion, this shouldn't be discussed further. Let's focus on the money
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #727,213
  • Feb 8, 2023 7:37am Feb 8, 2023 7:37am
Boom! Need a move up now
Insane in the Brain..
  • #727,214
  • Feb 8, 2023 7:37am Feb 8, 2023 7:37am
Quoting Purple
Short XAUUSD, TP open. {image}
closed at market, short from 1878.19, closed 1873.49
  • #727,215
  • Feb 8, 2023 7:37am Feb 8, 2023 7:37am
Quoting Erto
{quote} what are you expecting from this hawkishness or Dovishness? Cause according to Powell deflation has already started
I expect Williams to follow up on what Powell said.
Expecting hawkishness, how will the market react? No clue.

Don't expect anything new. More rate hikes will be appropriate etc..
I expect to hear however, that Fed will be watching over that CPI data which will come out next Week and that that data will play a part in Fed's decision in the future.

Expect to hear something along the lines: have this data continues to come out better then was forecasted, we will definitely have to raise rates even higher.

*This could cause a sudden move down on GBP/USD. Market didn't expect further rate hikes (beyond 5.25%) and the news that Fed might go to 5.50% or even 5.75% could cause some sudden moves.

HOWEVER, hahah.. there are many more data that needs to come out before the decision in March.

Also, while inflation is still high in other parts of the world, situation seems to get better somewhat due to China's reopening. Now, what will play the bigger part now? Reduced chance of a global recession or Fed raising rates even more?

You can give a case that China's reopening could lead to bigger correction in the short-term which could boost non safe-haven currencies up against those which are safe-haven like USD.

As the Fed, we will go one by one. As said, Weekly is the chart I'm most focused on at the moment.
  • #727,216
  • Feb 8, 2023 7:37am Feb 8, 2023 7:37am
Quoting Purple
Short XAUUSD, TP open. {image}
I expect a buy until around 1884.XX before the actual sell will happen.
  • #727,217
  • Feb 8, 2023 7:38am Feb 8, 2023 7:38am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Hi Ferna, I wouldn't get carried away by definitions and so forth. Hedging is a word used by brokers and traders. If you buy with 1 lot and price turns on you and you sell with the same lot you have effectively closed your trade at a loss. Catch22 is correct in saying, why don't you just close the buy trade at a loss? I personally don't hedge like this and prefer to close my trade at a loss. We are all different and some traders prefer to hedge and wait until the dust settles and they can make an informed decision to get out of their loss....
Hi Wavegarrick, the entire concept of hedging was born in the futures market with the primary objective to offset "future" risk. The way it's being applied to the Forex Market does not i.m.o qualify as hedging. Companies like Apple, who's core manufacturing operations reside offshore applies currency hedging quite differently to what's being explained here, but as you say, best to get off the topic.

Cheers
Guy
  • #727,218
  • Feb 8, 2023 7:39am Feb 8, 2023 7:39am
GBPUSD today, H1 larger degree trend is H4 larger degree swing and minor trend down.

We have a correction on H4 so assume we will see further downside , how do we determine when the correction has finished and the downside will continue?
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #727,219
  • Feb 8, 2023 7:39am Feb 8, 2023 7:39am
[citação=Wavegarrick;14318421] {citação} Oi Ferna, eu não me deixaria levar por definições e assim por diante. Hedging é uma palavra usada por corretores e traders. Se você comprar com 1 lote e o preço virar sobre você e você vender com o mesmo lote, você efetivamente fechou sua negociação com prejuízo. Catch22 está correto em dizer, por que você não fecha a negociação de compra com prejuízo? Eu, pessoalmente, não me protejo assim e prefiro fechar meu comércio com prejuízo. Somos todos diferentes e alguns comerciantes preferem se proteger e esperar até que a poeira baixe e eles possam tomar uma decisão informada para sair de sua perda. Por mais estúpido que isso possa parecer. Alguns comerciantes gostam de mover suas paradas quando o preço se aproxima de seu stop loss e acham que abrir uma negociação na direção oposta é melhor para eles. É você como ser humano e sua psique. Qualquer que seja a maneira que funcione para você. Eu só protejo posições que estão no lucro e sinto que haverá um recuo temporário. Isso me dá tempo para a poeira baixar e tomar uma decisão mais informada para avaliar a direção do mercado e, esperançosamente, acertar minha entrada no comércio. Quanto aos encargos duplos, não pago comissões sobre as minhas negociações e os swaps de venda compensam os meus swaps de compra. Enfim, vamos sair deste tópico. Não há certo ou errado no hedge. Cabe a cada trader e ao que melhor lhes convém. Obrigada. [/quote]

Just a observation. We just can do the hedge with the metatrader 4.
Together we can be strongest
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  • #727,220
  • Feb 8, 2023 7:45am Feb 8, 2023 7:45am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} GU It's dragging its feet for five hours, just in ranging.{image}
GU

Common, gimme some money tonight.
Hope some luck with this trade.
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
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