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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #724,781
  • Jan 31, 2023 6:58am Jan 31, 2023 6:58am
Double Top on Daily TF... it's capped @ 1.24350... The job now is to find the bottom....
  • #724,782
  • Jan 31, 2023 6:59am Jan 31, 2023 6:59am
Quoting Coreg2004
I went on the internet to check if forecasting is some evil thing. That's what I found out. What is the best definition of forecasting? What Is Forecasting? Forecasting is a technique that uses historical data as inputs to make informed estimates that are predictive in determining the direction of future trends. Businesses utilize forecasting to determine how to allocate their budgets or plan for anticipated expenses for an upcoming period of time. What does forecasting mean in business? Forecasting is a decision-making tool used by many businesses...
Pretty sure there is an element of the estimated probability that accompanies a forecast as well.
  • #724,783
  • Jan 31, 2023 7:00am Jan 31, 2023 7:00am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Many traders lose money because they see the market as bullish. No problem if the traders see the MN TIME FRAME as bullish rather than the MARKET as bullish, because EVERY time frame below the MN MUST go into up trends to build the MN up swing. So, why would traders that are looking for buys on TFs below MN have a lot of losing entries if they know that down swings on lower TFs are retracements and up swings are in agreement with the MN direction??? The main reason I see that many traders lose money is because they do not do a top-down analysis...
Personally i do both bottom up and top down, the reason for this is because i focus on the larger swings , each timeframe is set up to show the larger and smaller swings.

Starting my analysis on a lower timeframe helps to see the reversal and continuations as they are building.

Example, one larger swing on say the H1 equates to a smaller swing on H4 which will be within the H4 larger swing, if H4 Larger swings are trending down i can take the H1 swing in the same direction

Two larger swings on H1 equate to one larger swing on H4, if H4 larger swings are trending down ,i can take that trade.

For reversals as in GBPUSD the break of structure with the H1 larger swings is only indicating a correction on H4 because H4s large swing trend has not be reversed.
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #724,784
  • Jan 31, 2023 7:04am Jan 31, 2023 7:04am
Quoting SnailFX
{quote} I don't think you'll miss that much since the Fed is tommorow anyway. Patience, yes!
Is not that i fear missing it, but i only trade big number if my position is in minus
If i making +40pips it is mainly because i've already floating about -80pips
Or the way candle move is in my pavor without halting and pullback
10000% Wannabe . -$3000 & -$4000
Gold Recovery All Time Profit: -$3,961
  • #724,785
  • Jan 31, 2023 7:05am Jan 31, 2023 7:05am
It is not easy telling you that today’s candle will end bearish prior and also that it will be a hammer candle with a rejected wick. And I’m also telling you that February’s candle will close bearish.

The actual market shift should happen at the back of your mind before it takes effect on the chart. And if there are changes it will still show as we split the levels in to particles.
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  • #724,786
  • Jan 31, 2023 7:05am Jan 31, 2023 7:05am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Pretty sure there is an element of the estimated probability that accompanies a forecast as well.
Absolutely and in trading it's a pretty binary thing mostly re immediate price direction, ie it will go up or down (I'm not talking about trend or range - here relative to each t/f.) So when we get a repeating set-up that is consistent with our respective edges, all we can say is that on x % of times in the past over any given sample (s) size (s) it went up or down when that set-up developed, whether on the occasion to hand - it does, or does not. Stating probabilities is not a forecast.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #724,787
  • Jan 31, 2023 7:08am Jan 31, 2023 7:08am
Quoting donfriday
{quote} monthly pull back have not yet started pull back pay happen in different way but mostly happen after NFP before continuation my view
You will not understand my point of view. I have said it over and over again when it is obvious you can no longer make money from it then it is subject to manipulation. I’m telling you again that there is a pull back on the way just relax and watch it happen.

By the time the weekly and monthly time frame indicate the pull back, then you can no longer make money from the move. You have to see them happening even before it happen.

I already knew there will be a pull back today so you see my levels are pointing down and prices are reacting perfectly to those levels.. I may not know the extent to which prices will pull back.

Good luck.
My telegram: https://t.me/avidforex
  • #724,788
  • Jan 31, 2023 7:10am Jan 31, 2023 7:10am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Many traders lose money because they see the market as bullish. No problem if the traders see the MN TIME FRAME as bullish rather than the MARKET as bullish, because EVERY time frame below the MN MUST go into up trends to build the MN up swing. So, why would traders that are looking for buys on TFs below MN have a lot of losing entries if they know that down swings on lower TFs are retracements and up swings are in agreement with the MN direction??? The main reason I see that many traders lose money is because they do not do a top-down analysis...

You will not understand my point of view. I have said it over and over again when it is obvious you can no longer make money from it then it is subject to manipulation. I’m telling you again that there is a pull back on the way just relax and watch it happen.

By the time the weekly and monthly time frame indicate the pull back, then you can no longer make money from the move. You have to see them happening even before it happen.

I already knew there will be a pull back today so you see my levels are pointing down and prices are reacting perfectly to those levels.. I may not know the extent to which prices will pull back.

Good luck.
My telegram: https://t.me/avidforex
  • #724,789
  • Jan 31, 2023 7:14am Jan 31, 2023 7:14am
Quoting BigNumbers
{quote} You will not understand my point of view. I have said it over and over again when it is obvious you can no longer make money from it then it is subject to manipulation. I’m telling you again that there is a pull back on the way just relax and watch it happen. By the time the weekly and monthly time frame indicate the pull back, then you can no longer make money from the move. You have to see them happening even before it happen. I already knew there will be a pull back today so you see my levels are pointing down and prices are reacting...

can you explain what pullback means?
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #724,790
  • Jan 31, 2023 7:15am Jan 31, 2023 7:15am
Quoting BigNumbers
I'm short and my tp is around 1.21530 if price touches the trend line before getting to my objective i will close manually... Here is what is going to happen today.. Price will trade to the open of previous day candle and then melt down.. Today's candle will be a Hammer candle and with a long wick and it will close bearish... Good luck.. {image}

Forex is deep! You have think it before it manifest on the chart… Also start seeing Candle sticks as indicators because they truly are!
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  • #724,791
  • Jan 31, 2023 7:16am Jan 31, 2023 7:16am
Quoting GODofMC
{quote} Is not that i fear missing it, but i only trade big number if my position is in minus If i making +40pips it is mainly because i've already floating about -80pips Or the way candle move is in my pavor without halting and pullback
Forget FOMO (fear of missing out).

What were you trying to say though? I don't understand, thanks!
  • #724,792
  • Jan 31, 2023 7:17am Jan 31, 2023 7:17am
Quoting SnailFX
{quote} Forget FOMO (fear of missing out). What were you trying to say though? I don't understand, thanks!
Thats is my best typing in english, so i cannot tell more

Oh holy oil betray me today, cut loss and profit at under
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10000% Wannabe . -$3000 & -$4000
Gold Recovery All Time Profit: -$3,961
  • #724,793
  • Jan 31, 2023 7:20am Jan 31, 2023 7:20am
Quoting BigNumbers
{quote} Forex is deep! You have think it before it manifest on the chart… Also start seeing Candle sticks as indicators because they truly are!
Can you show some charts, you have described a million things but traders seem to learn better thru visuals.
The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #724,794
  • Jan 31, 2023 7:21am Jan 31, 2023 7:21am
Right now I'm thinking...

What would @Yngwie do?
Methinks he'd most certainly buy
  • #724,795
  • Jan 31, 2023 7:23am Jan 31, 2023 7:23am
Quoting BrainBucks
Right now I'm thinking... What would @Yngwie do? Methinks he'd most certainly buy
Ask him, he pops in from time to time. Most recently he was long but he doesn't always post what he does.
  • #724,796
  • Jan 31, 2023 7:24am Jan 31, 2023 7:24am
Quoting donfriday
{quote} can you explain what pullback means?
Omg! I just realized I see the market differently maybe that’s why we may disagree in a certain analysis. It is not my fault I tried two years trying to study what normal pull backs, retracement, highs and lows, tops and bottoms mean! Guess what I failed woefully. Until I sat down put everything aside and I started looking at the market myself taking note myself.

Can you explain what pull back means ? Well I study pull back from equilibrium candle! That’s all I can tell you for now
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  • #724,797
  • Jan 31, 2023 7:24am Jan 31, 2023 7:24am
...price @ current dly lo has tested deeper into the prev 1hr/4hr sw lo zone down to 2282, this consistent with the prev 1hr/4hr/minor dly sw lo zone down to last wk's 2262 lo, this again coexistent with the prev 1hr/4hr sw lo zone down to 2253, each one of the 1st 2 lo's beaing a test of the lower pot supp zone rexspectively.

Price never really looked back after pullback to asian lo zone that acted as sbr, although did stall a bit re that 5min+ range before the last leg down.

4hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #724,798
  • Jan 31, 2023 7:25am Jan 31, 2023 7:25am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Ask him, he pops in from time to time. Most recently he was long but he doesn't always post what he does.
Lolzz I need not ask him; his entries are maybe getting predictable, plus it makes technical sense to take a LONG gamble from current levels.
  • #724,799
  • Jan 31, 2023 7:29am Jan 31, 2023 7:29am
Enjoy it!
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  • #724,800
  • Jan 31, 2023 7:30am Jan 31, 2023 7:30am
Quoting BrainBucks
{quote} Lolzz I need not ask him; his entries are maybe getting predictable, plus it makes technical sense to take a LONG gamble from current levels.
To the extent there is potential supp here, re my 4hr chart above? Price has only traveled 64% 30day adr so far today though.
--------------------------------
re probabilities, the more t/f's a previous swing hi or lo exists upon the greater the chance (not certainty) of it offering supp or res or rbs sbr, if tested again in near future (relative to t/f.)
Trader with an Edge.
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