Cable Update (GBPUSD)

short term GBPUSD bulls are not materializing.. Hmm..
I wonder if I can close it now and wait for it to drop again.
I now have my SL at +1 pip...

I guess cable´s waiting for the minor UK data due at 4:30 - that might help clarify the ST trend which has just turned flat on my 5 min chart after the bounce from the 9911 area

USDI (US dollar index) :
Date/Time Open High Low Close May 01 2007 81.443 81.721 81.251 81.649
Well, looks like Dollar is gaining momentum in this short term. I'm looking at 1.9900 and below, when US Data being release later today, follow closely by tommorow's data. A positive outlook is expected (as being reported in bloomberg TV). So those holding LONG previously need to hold your breath for the reversal today...

morning all...

Well, my "jacko's" trade was stopped out at 9940, as I decided to leave a 60 pips SL instead of 50 this time...

Had I traded with Euro (long at 1.36), it would be fine, so a 50-60 SL for Cable is something to give a better thought... All in all, again, Cable drop from the figure (2.0) was excessive if compared to Euro (1.36), go figure

I'm back long at 9940 after the trip to 9910, where my SL stays now until confirmation that we will go back up....

congrats... I made 17 pips from 9955, TP 9938 (with T/Stop @15pips)

hehe... no "congrats" this time... I was long

Closed my long for 17 pips; waiting for 1.9920 to re-enter another buy expire 8AM EST.

crap.. closed too soon

looks like an intraday bottom to me.

$2.00 magnet in full effect!

not likely a $2.000 in UK trade session... if it hits $2, I'm looking for a short at 0050..

why so sure?

US ADP employment report due before London close which could easily move cable 60 pips in a blink of an eye...

Do not count on this announcement... ADP is not providing a move for a few months since it fails miserably in predicting NFP (this one yes, a mover - on Friday)

I;d rather put LIMIT ORDERS 15 pips away from pre news price to catch any spike this would produce. That would be a quick 5-10 pips profit

4 hour chart.

Is it just waiting for ADP NFP before proper bear trend?

Hey Fellas, i read this news at bloomberg website and i think can be interesting...

A yearlong rally in the pound that pushed the currency above $2 may be over as the Bank of England is set to stop raising interest rates this year and investors abroad buy fewer U.K. assets. Kokusai Global Sovereign Open fund, the world's second- biggest bond fund, is among investors that have cut holdings of U.K. government debt. Foreign businesses spent 15 percent less money buying British companies in the first quarter than they did a year earlier, according to Bloomberg calculations.
``The Swedish krone or the Norway krone are more attractive than the British pound,'' said Masataka Horii, who helps manage Kokusai Global Sovereign's $46.3 billion in assets. Tokyo-based Horii has cut his holdings in U.K. gilts to 9 percent of the total, from 10 percent last year.
The currency may drop 5 percent against the dollar and euro in 12 months, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's biggest securities firm. It's the ``most expensive'' currency among those of the 10 biggest economies, said Jens Nordvig, senior currency strategist at Goldman in New York.
Gains in the pound accelerated in August, when the Bank of England surprised investors by raising interest rates for the first time in two years. Two more rate increases and a report showing the fastest inflation in a decade pushed the currency above $2 for the first time in 15 years on April 17.
Traders are betting the BOE will lift borrowing costs as much as a further two quarter percentage points this year to 5.75 percent, interest-rate futures show. The Federal Reserve's benchmark is 5.25 percent.
Selling the Pound
Some investors said they have started selling the pound as its gains already reflect prospects for higher rates and as central bank officials stated that inflation will slow in the second half.
Inflation is ``expected to fall back quite sharply,'' BOE policy maker Paul Tucker said on April 26, a week after the government reported it had accelerated in March to 3.1 percent from a year before.
``The market is a long way into a second hike,'' said Ken Dickson, investment director for currencies in Edinburgh at Standard Life Investments, which manages about $268 billion. ``All the good news for the pound is already in the price. We're starting to go underweight.''
An investor is ``underweight'' when they hold less of an asset than recommended in the benchmark index used to gauge their performance.
The pound has reached $2 twice before in the past quarter century, in January 1991 and September 1992, holding the level for less than two weeks both times and ending the year lower.
Options Premium
The currency traded at $1.9944 at 10:22 a.m. in London, falling back from $2.0001 earlier today and a level of $2.0133 reached on April 18, the strongest since June 1981.
Currency options traders are bullish on the pound. They are paying a premium for so-called option calls that grant the right to buy the U.K. currency, relative to puts, which give the right to sell.
``The options market is implying a higher pound,'' said Neil Jones, head of European hedge fund sales at Mizuho Financial Group Inc. ``Interest-rate differentials favor sterling over the dollar.''
The premium on one-month calls over puts was 0.13 percent today. On March 16 this so-called risk-reversal rate was minus 0.20 percent, showing the greatest demand for pound puts since October, as some traders bet the pound's rally would fade. The premium rose as high as 0.35 percent on April 19.
Investors Abroad
The extra yield investors earn on U.K. 10-year debt over similar-maturity Treasuries reached 44 basis points today, the highest since March 2005, and up from 34 basis points at the start of April.
The pound's strength may be discouraging foreign direct investment into Britain. Companies based abroad invested $104.6 billion on U.K. firms in the first quarter, down from $122.9 billion a year earlier, Bloomberg calculations show.
Investments into U.K. bonds from abroad also fell to 41.2 billion pounds ($82.2 billion) in the fourth quarter last year, according to the latest government figures, from 51.5 billion pounds in the previous three months.
``The pound is way overvalued,'' said Goldman's Nordvig. ``Upside surprises on interest rates, which have driven the pound up since last year, will be limited.'' by By Anchalee Worrachate/Bloomberg

Still, 1.9900 is just 20 pips away now... last 1.9919/23

[quote=PiPaDoR;1430641]Hey Fellas, i read this news at bloomberg website and i think can be interesting...

People with vested interests will spread rumours and biased analysis like this, for obvious reasons.

BOE has to address inflation and will need to raise rates for some time to come.

In the short term I think you will see some downtrend and then a correction upwards. Someone on this site said in an earlier post last month that they thought fluctuations through and about the $2 cable would be around for some time yet. I tend to agree.

JM2C

PENDING BUY @ 1.9900... come on cable, break now!

hi first time ever posting
With respect to all my seniours and juniors cabel is targeting 1.9845 after breaking 1.9911 support level and there is a strong resistance on 2.0002
after breaking 2.0002 traget is 2.0169

Im selling at 1.9930 SL 1.9955 tARGET 1.9882 then 1.9852

4 hour trend line has been broken (just about) and on 5 min chart inverse head and shoulder formation has occured may signal more South movement

Stopped out again damn it!

Too much too extended this ranging... from 9910 to 9960 to 9910 and going down....

I'm out for good while now. Double bottom at 9890 on the cards now.