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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #723,941
  • Jan 27, 2023 5:13am Jan 27, 2023 5:13am
Quoting noox
{quote} You can only withdraw from your current account. You cannot exchange FX on your current account. There is a reason for that. If you want to exchange the currency that you have, you first have to enter an FX transaction which in technical terms means that they will withdraw the money from your current account onto a technical/transactional account where the actual exchange occurs: the bank will take your USD and gives you your EUR (or whatever you wanted) out of their own reserves. Banks are required to keep reserves so they can service many...
Every one is satisfied with what he/she have. Some are happy with indicators, that move the market (While Actually they follow the price), Some designs, Heiken Achi.
When price goes in the favor they think this indicator is right. While price behaviour was supporting the indicator, not the indicator moved the Market.
Same is with the Volume.
When we Buy USD with any currency (suppose AUD), USD Demand increases, it increases price of USD against all currencies. but more against the currency we traded AUD. If lot size is Millions... that matters most for USD and that (sell) currency AUD.
We of offered AUD to buy USD. Sell volume is AUD, Buy Volume is USD. Price of USD increases against all (bcoz of DXY) and price of AUD goes down against all. Major change in price will be in AUDUSD.

This is what understand about the volume. Volume can't be measured with just OPEN,HIGH,LOW,CLOSE. rather you can get from interbank, that is simply not possible for retail traders. We get the volume of our broker, or some brokers (from multi broker platforms like trading view), We can't get true volume.
  • #723,942
  • Jan 27, 2023 5:13am Jan 27, 2023 5:13am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} FX transactions do not really work that way. If I walk into my bank and request to withdraw $10,000 will they first ask me to wait until there is someone else that wants to deposit the same amount or greater before they will attend to me? It is an exchange, if you want any quantity at any price, your order will be filled (or maybe I have not started trading very big sizes yet). I think we as traders were set off on the wrong course from the start. They have been telling lies that they believe we will never be able to unveil.
Actually, with FX transactions there is another layer, the market maker which is similar to the bank.
When you go to the bank, if the bank has the currency that you want on hand they will sell it to you. If they don't have it on hand they have to order it and get it delivered or wait until as you said someone else comes along that wants to sell that currency.
With the market maker, the market maker acts as an intermediary, buying and selling within certain parameters of liquidity and borrowing limits. This allows for transactions to be complete even if there are not equal buyers and sellers at the precise moment that someone wants to trade. If the market maker is unable to close a transaction the client has to wait for an institutional buyer or seller.
  • #723,943
  • Jan 27, 2023 5:14am Jan 27, 2023 5:14am
GU may want to grab the Liquidity at 1.25726
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  • #723,944
  • Jan 27, 2023 5:18am Jan 27, 2023 5:18am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Actually, with FX transactions there is another layer, the market maker which is similar to the bank. When you go to the bank, if the bank has the currency that you want on hand they will sell it to you. If they don't have it on hand they have to order it and get it delivered or wait until as you said someone else comes along that wants to sell that currency. With the market maker, the market maker acts as an intermediary, buying and selling within certain parameters of liquidity and borrowing limits. This allows for transactions to be complete...
Most of the brokers have their own liquidity, the seldom have to go to interbank for liquidity. so Volume is always camouflaged. You can't get actual figures.
  • #723,945
  • Jan 27, 2023 5:20am Jan 27, 2023 5:20am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Okay, so if I send money in USD from Africa for my sons fees in the USA does this qualify as an FX transaction in your terms? If yes, do they ask me to wait until someone else needs the exact amount I want to send? FX transactions have a 2 - day forward period for the transaction to be cleared. Do not allow anyone deceive you. What is happening in the market today, are simply transactions that have been logged since 2 days ago.
It's only an FX transaction if you exchange one currency to another. If you send USD from your home country (in Africa) to a foreign country (USA) there is no FX transaction taking place. The FX transaction occured in your own bank when you exchanged your local currency to USD so you can send it.

The 2-day period you are referring to is the clearing period. The transaction occurs right now, but since FX has a huge volume the actual clearing is going to take place within the next 3 days actually (T+2). It's just an accounting technicality. The prices are current (spot) prices (unless you are talking about forwards which is a whole different subject). All market influences from the transaction (however miniscule) are current. Meaning price and volume.
  • #723,946
  • Jan 27, 2023 5:22am Jan 27, 2023 5:22am
Quoting Indigo45
{quote} Most of the brokers have their own liquidity, the seldom have to go to interbank for liquidity. so Volume is always camouflaged. You can't get actual figures.
The broker can offset transactions between clients and if liquidity permits hold balances. There are rules that limit the holdings. If you think about this, most brokers probably don't want to hold large balances because of the volatility of the underlying currency. I have no data on the holdings of brokers.
  • #723,947
  • Jan 27, 2023 5:23am Jan 27, 2023 5:23am
Quoting Indigo45
{quote} This is what understand about the volume. Volume can't be measured with just OPEN,HIGH,LOW,CLOSE. rather you can get from interbank, that is simply not possible for retail traders. We get the volume of our broker, or some brokers (from multi broker platforms like trading view), We can't get true volume.
I completely agree with you sir, it is not possible.

Let's focus on the charts now.

Thank you!
  • #723,948
  • Jan 27, 2023 5:23am Jan 27, 2023 5:23am
Quoting Indigo45
{quote} Every one is satisfied with what he/she have. Some are happy with indicators, that move the market (While Actually they follow the price), Some designs, Heiken Achi. When price goes in the favor they think this indicator is right. While price behaviour was supporting the indicator, not the indicator moved the Market. Same is with the Volume. When we Buy USD with any currency (suppose AUD), USD Demand increases, it increases price of USD against all currencies. but more against the currency we traded AUD. If lot size is Millions... that matters...
Hence my questions.
  • #723,949
  • Jan 27, 2023 5:26am Jan 27, 2023 5:26am
Quoting noox
{quote} It's only an FX transaction if you exchange one currency to another. If you send USD from your home country (in Africa) to a foreign country (USA) there is no FX transaction taking place. The FX transaction occured in your own bank when you exchanged your local currency to USD so you can send it. The 2-day period you are referring to is the clearing period. The transaction occurs right now, but since FX has a huge volume the actual clearing is going to take place within the next 3 days actually (T+2). It's just an accounting technicality....
Actually the two-day clearing or settlement is in reality just a way for the bank to make money by holding funds in their accounts for which they get paid interest and contribute to their reserve balances. Sure there is an argument made about clearing funds, balancing accounts and so on but then there is simple reality.
  • #723,950
  • Jan 27, 2023 5:28am Jan 27, 2023 5:28am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Actually the two-day clearing or settlement is in reality just a way for the bank to make money by holding funds in their accounts for which they get paid interest and contribute to their reserve balances. Sure there is an argument made about clearing funds, balancing accounts and so on but then there is simple reality.
Yes, in today's world they could do it instantenously but it's not in their interest. My point was that we are not seeing 2 day old transactions. Every transaction is current and it influences price and volume figures instantenously.
  • #723,951
  • Jan 27, 2023 5:30am Jan 27, 2023 5:30am
If GBPUSD trades to 1.19 or slightly lower within the next few days, maybe some people will start to believe that the volume on MT4 is sufficient once you know how to separate buy volume from sell volume.

New ideas are usually strongly resisted. Little by little some people will begin to accept it as truth.
  • #723,952
  • Jan 27, 2023 5:34am Jan 27, 2023 5:34am
Quoting pipcenturion
If GBPUSD trades to 1.19 or slightly lower within the next few days, maybe some people will start to believe that the volume on MT4 is sufficient once you know how to separate buy volume from sell volume. New ideas are usually strongly resisted. Little by little some people will begin to accept it as truth.
Dude, your ideas are not resisted, you just evade all questions.
  • #723,953
  • Jan 27, 2023 5:40am Jan 27, 2023 5:40am
Quoting Indiara
{quote} Well, Mr Market is just not going to give me any pips, but I am not going to give him any of mine either!! No more attempts for me this week, I will play my guitar and have some coffee!! {image}
FX option expiries for 27 January 10am New York cut
If you see this, you can play guitar, because all is a mess and trade after the US report
  • #723,954
  • Jan 27, 2023 5:42am Jan 27, 2023 5:42am
Quoting SnailFX
{quote} How long did it take you to learn Elliott Waves? Many people are saying learning Elliott Waves is among the most difficult subjects to learn and takes a really long time before someone even learns it properly let alone mastering it. Some people also say it's very subjective. Asking five traders will result in five different analysis.
Elliott said, someone would show up and complete the study.
POSTMASTER
  • #723,955
  • Jan 27, 2023 5:42am Jan 27, 2023 5:42am
Quoting noox
{quote} Dude, your ideas are not resisted, you just evade all questions.
Kindly understand that I am trading and need to run analysis periodically.

I need to focus on what is most important to me right now and that happens to be MY TRADES!

I am sorry if I missed anyone's question.
  • #723,956
  • Edited 6:16am Jan 27, 2023 5:47am | Edited 6:16am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Okay, so if I send money in USD from Africa for my sons fees in the USA does this qualify as an FX transaction in your terms? If yes, do they ask me to wait until someone else needs the exact amount I want to send? FX transactions have a 2 - day forward period for the transaction to be cleared. Do not allow anyone deceive you. What is happening in the market today, are simply transactions that have been logged since 2 days ago.
So when I buy 3 contracts and see it in the Time and Sales Tape and -3 from Limit Order book (DOM) - it happened 2 days ago?
This is real volume from futures market not ticks which measure the frequency of datafeed updates (I don't say u can't use it)
Someone is definitely deceiving himself.
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Air force
  • #723,957
  • Jan 27, 2023 5:49am Jan 27, 2023 5:49am
The bulls lose the trend line.

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Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: -97.0%
  • #723,958
  • Jan 27, 2023 5:51am Jan 27, 2023 5:51am
Quoting maxi444
{quote} FX option expiries for 27 January 10am New York cut If you see this, you can play guitar, because all is a mess and trade after the US report
FX option expiries for Jan 27 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.
- EUR/USD: EUR amounts

  1. 1.0700 882m
  2. 1.0825 695m

- USD/JPY: USD amounts

  1. 126.50 680m
  2. 128.80 330m

- USD/CHF: USD amounts

  1. 0.9130 498m

- AUD/USD: AUD amounts

  1. 0.6650 549m

- USD/CAD: USD amounts

  1. 1.3150 500m

- EUR/GBP: EUR amounts

  1. 0.8800 350m


Where is the Mess ??

  • #723,959
  • Jan 27, 2023 5:51am Jan 27, 2023 5:51am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Kindly understand that I am trading and need to run analysis periodically. I need to focus on what is most important to me right now and that happens to be MY TRADES! I am sorry if I missed anyone's question.
I understand. But you didn't miss my simple question: "What do you mean by net volume?" You replied many times with a question. And not just in this conversation but in the many months I've been reading this thread, I'm yet to see you post anything that would explain anything about your theory. So do understand that people are not going to blindly believe you or your method just because you throw magic numbers up. This thread however is a great place for everyone to develop and perfect their method, including the possibility that it's just the striped pyjama fallacy. That's all.
  • #723,960
  • Jan 27, 2023 5:55am Jan 27, 2023 5:55am
Quoting BeeTogether
{quote} I think Pat is also selling the mooting warm up trade
Check this post: He is buying.
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