Attachments: Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Last Post
1 36169 36170 Page 36171 36172 36173 43750
1 Page 36171 43750

#723,401
Edited Jan 26, 2023 1:58am Jan 25, 2023 9:42pm | Edited Jan 26, 2023 1:58am

Fardeen1209
Temporarily Suspended | Joined Jul 2021 | 3,677 Posts

Good day peeps,
US GDP better than expected or below than expected?

Given the upward revision, high probability for a higher than consensus outlook.

However, after GU closing the imbalance below and a massive upward occurred out of thing air yesterday and after the weekly close above the 50% Fib level, everything appear bullish to me but 4hr looks bearish and i'm on a short ride for GDP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: image_2023-01-26_074045842.png
Size: 48 KB

Next week, FOMC will surely push GU up, and i think thats what in play rn, Long term ITs took the buy side of our shorts.

Edit: From technical perspective, the market price in ~70% chance of a 25bps FED hike

More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!

#723,402
Jan 25, 2023 9:45pm Jan 25, 2023 9:45pm

cchin
Joined Aug 2022 | Status: Trader | 271 Posts

Quoting pipcenturion

Disliked

Hello everyone, there is a pair I will like us to watch for a long term buying opportunity - CADCHF I expect GU to go down to 1.19 or lower while UJ needs to have a date with 135 What can trigger such strength in the USD? Maybe cchin can help us explain the underlying fundamentals that can fuel strength in the USD.

Ignored

Explained? nope...

I don't expect USD strength to be long lasting. There's only one trigger, which is the Fed. Longer term, I'll see USD go down, allowing Euro, yen, possibly even Sterling, to strengthen. We'll see if it comes true in Q3 '23. Then, we can all leave this space, and bet on equities and riskier assets and contracts.

#723,403
Jan 25, 2023 9:55pm Jan 25, 2023 9:55pm

pipcenturion
Joined May 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,683 Posts

Quoting cchin

Disliked

{quote} Explained? nope... I don't expect USD strength to be long lasting. There's only one trigger, which is the Fed. Longer term, I'll see USD go down, allowing Euro, yen, possibly even Sterling, to strengthen. We'll see if it comes true in Q3 '23. Then, we can all leave this space, and bet on equities and riskier assets and contracts.

Ignored

I knew you will do justice to it. Quite impressive!!!

I want to ask a question:

CPI is somewhat a measure of inflation right? If yes, what happens to a currency when the CPI peaks and begins to decline? Does the currency strengthen or weaken?

#723,404
Jan 25, 2023 10:31pm Jan 25, 2023 10:31pm

tradexyz
| Membership Revoked | Joined Nov 2022 | 1,789 Posts

Quoting cchin

Disliked

{quote} Explained? nope... I don't expect USD strength to be long lasting. There's only one trigger, which is the Fed. Longer term, I'll see USD go down, allowing Euro, yen, possibly even Sterling, to strengthen. We'll see if it comes true in Q3 '23. Then, we can all leave this space, and bet on equities and riskier assets and contracts.

Ignored

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: USIDXH1 j26.png
Size: 69 KB

#723,405
Edited 11:33pm Jan 25, 2023 10:54pm | Edited 11:33pm

tradexyz
| Membership Revoked | Joined Nov 2022 | 1,789 Posts

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: GBPUSDH1 j26 oa.png
Size: 76 KB

dinner time Eat Spaghetti To Forgetti Your Regrettis

#723,406
Jan 25, 2023 11:03pm Jan 25, 2023 11:03pm

karankeni
| Joined Oct 2022 | Status: Trader | 171 Posts

Quoting cchin

Disliked

{quote} Explained? nope... I don't expect USD strength to be long lasting. There's only one trigger, which is the Fed. Longer term, I'll see USD go down, allowing Euro, yen, possibly even Sterling, to strengthen. We'll see if it comes true in Q3 '23. Then, we can all leave this space, and bet on equities and riskier assets and contracts.

Ignored

shouldnt the usd drop if rates are increased by only 2.50%?

#723,407
Jan 25, 2023 11:13pm Jan 25, 2023 11:13pm

dantpm
Joined Aug 2022 | Status: Trader | 4,859 Posts

Quoting karankeni

Disliked

{quote} shouldnt the usd drop if rates are increased by only 2.50%?

Ignored

You can check out the current US Fed rate and expected increases on this website:
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/int...atch-tool.html

Right now the FED is at 4.5% and expectations are for flat to .25% or 25 BP in this next meeting by the public.
Typical rate changes are +/- 0 to 1% with most in the .25 to .27 range.

#723,408
Jan 25, 2023 11:23pm Jan 25, 2023 11:23pm

karankeni
| Joined Oct 2022 | Status: Trader | 171 Posts

Quoting dantpm

Disliked

{quote} You can check out the current US Fed rate and expected increases on this website: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/int...atch-tool.html Right now the FED is at 4.5% and expectations are for flat to .25% or 25 BP in this next meeting by the public. Typical rate changes are +/- 0 to 1% with most in the .25 to .27 range.

Ignored

yes yes i meant .25% so shoudnt that tank the dollar or it shouldnt?

#723,409
Edited Jan 26, 2023 12:36am Jan 25, 2023 11:25pm | Edited Jan 26, 2023 12:36am

dantpm
Joined Aug 2022 | Status: Trader | 4,859 Posts

Quoting pipcenturion

Disliked

{quote} I knew you will do justice to it. Quite impressive!!! I want to ask a question: CPI is somewhat a measure of inflation right? If yes, what happens to a currency when the CPI peaks and begins to decline? Does the currency strengthen or weaken?

Ignored

CPI doesn't typically impact currency rates. FED and Central Bank interest rate policies impact currency exchange rates often in reaction to CPI and other economic measures. The other factor is money supply or the number of banknotes in circulation and treasury notes/gilts / etc. which represent central bank borrowing and lending.
If you follow many new authors about exchange rates this has been replaced by an AI that moves exchange rates to where they can be moved with the least resistance. Since there are over 28 currency pairs to consider in the move, the path of least resistance goals tend to be acceptable for governments who have subscribed to the program. An appreciation of where institutions believe rates are moving and the large buying and selling done by these entities is probably the largest factor in determining both the goal and path of least resistance. Retail trading represents less than a quarter of all trading so it ends up largely providing liquidity or funds for the movements.
Pretty sure I have this right.

#723,410
Jan 25, 2023 11:27pm Jan 25, 2023 11:27pm

dantpm
Joined Aug 2022 | Status: Trader | 4,859 Posts

Quoting karankeni

Disliked

{quote} yes yes i meant .25% so shoudnt that tank the dollar or it shouldnt?

Ignored

Whether the USD goes up down or stays flat depends on perceptions of what was expected and the actual result. It has little to do with the actual number.

#723,411
Jan 25, 2023 11:31pm Jan 25, 2023 11:31pm

karankeni
| Joined Oct 2022 | Status: Trader | 171 Posts

Quoting dantpm

Disliked

{quote} Whether the USD goes up down or stays flat depends on perceptions of what was expected and the actual result. It has little to do with the actual number.

Ignored

thank you sire

#723,412
Jan 25, 2023 11:47pm Jan 25, 2023 11:47pm

pipcenturion
Joined May 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,683 Posts

Quoting dantpm

Disliked

{quote} CPI doesn't typically impact currency rates. FED and Central Bank interest rate policies impact currency prices often in reaction to CPI and other economic measures. The other factor is money supply or the number of bank notes in circulation and treasury notes / gilts / etc. which represent central bank borrowing and lending. If you follow many new authors about exchange rates this has been replaced by an AI that moves prices to where they can be moved with the least resistance. Since there are over 28 currency pairs to consider in the move,...

Ignored

A thousand likes for this post.

Thanks so much!