Closed Pound got my Target, Euro sell s Still open,
i will Sell Again because USDX is Down word Momentum in smaller charts so 20 pips retrace is very easy for Pound.. it may not, but that is enough pips for me,
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/Pip...eralgo/9935613
Bottom line, we have a revised likelihood of only a mild recession in the UK and Europe coupled with no recession at all in the US. But inflation is higher over there and the BoE and ECB are playing catch-up with the Fed. They are still hiking, and by the bigger 50 bp than the Fed’s newly measly 25 bp. The FX market wants to buy sterling and euros. Separately, the BoJ might be changing its tune next week and pressure against the 10-year is already driving the yen.
We agree with the yen story, but the UK/eurozone story is excessively optimistic. It neglects the war, for example, not to mention the relatively stronger capability of unions to get wage-push inflation and their relatively higher starting point.
Take a look at the weekly euro/dollar chart. The Schaff cycle indicator is already topping out, implying the max gain for the euro is 1.0942 (the 50% retracement) or 1.1272 (the 62%). Yes, the dollar got seriously overbought last year. But for good reasons, and those reasons can return. By mid-year, the US will still have decent growth, still-falling inflation and the highest rates anywhere. In the absence of a crisis, risk-on can still drag it down, but the minute some serious risk appears–N. Korea, Russia’s nuclear, climate crisis or an unknown unknown, the dollar becomes not only the safe haven, but a darn good one.
"A smart man makes a mistake, learns from it, and never makes that mistake again. But a wise man finds a smart man and learns from him how to avoid the mistake altogether"--Roy H Williams
i will Sell Again because USDX is Down word Momentum in smaller charts so 20 pips retrace is very easy for Pound.. it may not, but that is enough pips for me,
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/Pip...eralgo/9935613
Bottom line, we have a revised likelihood of only a mild recession in the UK and Europe coupled with no recession at all in the US. But inflation is higher over there and the BoE and ECB are playing catch-up with the Fed. They are still hiking, and by the bigger 50 bp than the Fed’s newly measly 25 bp. The FX market wants to buy sterling and euros. Separately, the BoJ might be changing its tune next week and pressure against the 10-year is already driving the yen.
We agree with the yen story, but the UK/eurozone story is excessively optimistic. It neglects the war, for example, not to mention the relatively stronger capability of unions to get wage-push inflation and their relatively higher starting point.
Take a look at the weekly euro/dollar chart. The Schaff cycle indicator is already topping out, implying the max gain for the euro is 1.0942 (the 50% retracement) or 1.1272 (the 62%). Yes, the dollar got seriously overbought last year. But for good reasons, and those reasons can return. By mid-year, the US will still have decent growth, still-falling inflation and the highest rates anywhere. In the absence of a crisis, risk-on can still drag it down, but the minute some serious risk appears–N. Korea, Russia’s nuclear, climate crisis or an unknown unknown, the dollar becomes not only the safe haven, but a darn good one.
"A smart man makes a mistake, learns from it, and never makes that mistake again. But a wise man finds a smart man and learns from him how to avoid the mistake altogether"--Roy H Williams
https://t.me/Fx_senitment_Signal
1
2