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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #720,881
  • Jan 14, 2023 3:00am Jan 14, 2023 3:00am
Quoting KevinZeng
{quote} Hi Teek, Can you explain more about ICT Market Maker Model?
Hi Kevin
please watch ICT himself
Start with this playlist (Market Maker Primer Series), it's the basics and fundamentals.
-> https://www.youtube.com/playlist?lis...1OMJQJdm6iP2Yn
you are not expected to understand this
  • #720,882
  • Jan 14, 2023 3:01am Jan 14, 2023 3:01am
Intersting thing is that sentiment still holds. I wonder if we will break above, or sentiment will change as we start falling down. Hmm...

I will still buy probably on lows, before anything changes. We will not move elsewhere without change of the sentiment.. That's just simple truth.
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  • #720,883
  • Jan 14, 2023 3:08am Jan 14, 2023 3:08am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Hi Teek Just curious, ever come across an EA or developed which map these ICT market/maker profiles and price action on these specific timings to trade? thanks for valuable posts. regards bilal
There are some on Tradingview, none of them really work, by the time these scripts/EA's see it it's too late.
It is better to really take your time and learn the concepts.
If you understand natural Orderflow and basic market mechanic (the "why is it so reliable" behind the SMR and FVG setups) it all becomes much clearer
and you start seeing it right before it happens.
Trade naked charts, train your eyes and with time things become clear.
you are not expected to understand this
  • #720,884
  • Jan 14, 2023 3:13am Jan 14, 2023 3:13am
Quoting SilentFather
{quote} So we got move up as said. It's always the same.. I know this day is not exactly alive or full of action, but thing was to buy on low before news. Nothing fancy I wanted.
Yeah, you buy the lows and sell the highs. Surprisingly most people do it the other way around, I don't know why.
you are not expected to understand this
  • #720,885
  • Jan 14, 2023 3:14am Jan 14, 2023 3:14am
Quoting pipcenturion
Is this a shift in market structure? {image}
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote} No, for the last 5 days the monthly MA was strong support (gold MA), yesterday and today the weekly took over (blue MA) changing direction should be breaking daily range(white BB) + yesterday Low we should have Higher High to confirm current direction is intact {image} cheers,
Update,

GU made a Higher High on Friday, but last reading did not break High of day, and closed near High, so current reading is not done yet.

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looking @ 4H range in M5 TF, direction is UP and no sideway yet, we should have Higher High in Asian session on Monday, and hopefully a Higher Low within London open.

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cheers,
"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
  • #720,886
  • Jan 14, 2023 3:55am Jan 14, 2023 3:55am
Quoting Teek
{quote} Yeah, you buy the lows and sell the highs. Surprisingly most people do it the other way around, I don't know why.
Because the Internet is filled with traders with more experience than the masses of wannabe traders that are viewing the content. And the content is mostly the same: Go with the momentum. So if price keeps going lower (higher), there must still be down (up) momentum. Few actually understand that the directional movement seen on the chart is not the actual momentum. But the presenters are merely passing along the same material that they got from the Internet.

So now, even when a presenter provides material that is based on correct premises, his information is of low probability of being found in such an immense sea of material from other presenters.

In addition, I suspect that very few wannabe traders have the will or inclination to question the material being presented and investigate the soundness of it, but simply take it at face value as fact.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #720,887
  • Jan 14, 2023 4:07am Jan 14, 2023 4:07am
I mentioned yesterday that I do not typically trade counter-trend swings. However, the GBPUSD material that I posted with the H1 rally presents a look at how these counter-trend retracement swings can be traded using exactly the same system as for trend continuation swings.
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I did not include any information on the H2 TF because so many readers are MT4 users that they don't see it. But as the rally progressed, H2 joined the rally, increasing the odds that TP2 /TP3 could be reached.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #720,888
  • Edited 5:19am Jan 14, 2023 4:14am | Edited 5:19am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Hi Dantpm, To be honest, most brokers that are regulated don't give a rats arse about our stops even if they can see it. Most trades are offset in house. Lets assume on the assumption that 80% of traders lose all the time, hence the B book system and not against regulations. A very simple example. If the broker has 60 dollars in long trades and 40 dollars in short trades from their clients, they have deficit of 20 dollars. They have 40 dollars in trades that have been offset, like hedging. The broker gains nothing but swap fees and commissions....
Here is what I have observed. FX transactions have a 2 - day forward (apart from the CAD). Your buy/sell transactions are recorded and at each instant, there might be excess buy/sell orders. Think of a local bitcoin or skrill, he collects the local currency and gives bitcoin (when customer is buying). If the customer is selling to him, he collects the bitcoin ad pays the client with the local currency. His store or bitcoin and local currency will keep fluctuating.

The challenge many people have with FX is that they have believed the LIE that volume does not matter in FX. Quite cleverly, they have been able to aggregate both buy and sell orders in the volume (quantity) reading on our MT4 or MT5 so this will keep confusing people.

Let me show an example . . . the local bitcoin exchanger started the day with $5,000 of bitcoin. This is the OPEN price for that day.
HE made 4 transactions during the day as follows:
(1) Sold $1,000 to a client
(2) sold $3,000 to another client
(3) Bought $7,000 from a client
(4) Sold $500 to a client

What is the quantity (volume in $) or transactions done for that day? Let's please participate in this discussion.
I will love to hear your answers to the question in bolded letters.
  • #720,889
  • Jan 14, 2023 4:16am Jan 14, 2023 4:16am
Quoting kk300
Anyone riding BTCUSD..?? {image}
Here is my recommendation

BTCUSD

Sell limit at 20762

Target 19010
  • #720,890
  • Jan 14, 2023 4:41am Jan 14, 2023 4:41am
Quoting Teek
{quote} There are some on Tradingview, none of them really work, by the time these scripts/EA's see it it's too late. It is better to really take your time and learn the concepts. If you understand natural Orderflow and basic market mechanic (the "why is it so reliable" behind the SMR and FVG setups) it all becomes much clearer and you start seeing it right before it happens. Trade naked charts, train your eyes and with time things become clear.
Its is poor for EAs have to improve to see things on time anyways, thank you.

The other day i was asking myself as to which order block/Fvg should work why not this but the other one or that one.

How do you filter that, here is the link to my question, if you may.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post14286825

With kind regards
bilal
"Exchange of hands"
  • #720,891
  • Jan 14, 2023 4:44am Jan 14, 2023 4:44am
Quoting Teek
{quote} Yeah, you buy the lows and sell the highs. Surprisingly most people do it the other way around, I don't know why.
Dear Teek, I hope it is not a irony. I sell highs and buy the lows, because in 2014 I saw a blog from trader that created some kind of trendlines, used for predicting where price will change. This worked by +/- 5 pips. On any timeframe. I believe he used H1.

After that, I was wondering how it's done. Probably we all know how he did it, but we will not connect it together. I realized there must be a way how to do it. In 2015 I created such a way, too. It was far from perfect, but it was very possible. (My problem is too much lines on chart sometimes) Chance of catching high or low was about 90%. I realized that when price doesn't work as expected, I can simply enter other way on pullback. Plus I could also measure how long the next move will be. I will for example know that I want to aim for 130 pips. (Longer timeframe) It works very well.

So this way I created I have made ~3400 dollars in ~10-12 trades, on ~600 USD account. I also know, you might also notice, that if you buy low and sell high, you can get pretty amazing trades. They will end mostly on take profit OR BreakEven. So for me, no crazy drawdowns. If price stays on my entry for more than 2 or 5 minutes, setup is wrong. This way I always avoid big drawdowns and nonsense like 30 pips stoploss and 50 take profit... Blah blah...

Let me show you this. I will only enter sell on low IF!....
I call this micro-resistance (pullback MUST happen) in this example.

Same vice versa for anything you can imagine.

By the way, I don't want to argue anything. This what I have seems easy but it's not. Also! I very liked your post about asian session. You shared great thing. Would be pleasure to talk with you someday.

You are doing really nice job. Just so we understand each other. (I had a feeling that you think I don't like your posts or something when I answered your first quote of my post ) Very sorry for that. :o)


SF
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  • #720,892
  • Jan 14, 2023 5:07am Jan 14, 2023 5:07am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Here is what I have observed. FX transactions have a 2 - day forward (apart from the CAD). Your buy/sell transactions are recorded and at each instant, there might be excess buy/sell orders. Think of a local bitcoin or skrill, he collects the local currency and gives bitcoin (when customer is buying). If the customer is selling to him, he collects the bitcoin ad pays the client with the local currency. His store or bitcoin and local currency will keep fluctuating. The challenge many people have with FX is that they have believed the LIE...
11,500 of $ volume traded for the day. With 7500 in hand. Keep pushing price higher?
  • #720,893
  • Jan 14, 2023 5:43am Jan 14, 2023 5:43am
Quoting kk300
{quote} 11,500 of $ volume traded for the day. With 7500 in hand. Keep pushing price higher?
Thank you very much for responding. Your answer is 100% correct! Thanks again.
Let me do the break down below

Open $5,000
(1) sell $1,000 ----------- balance $4,000
(2) sell $3,000 ----------- balance $1,000
(3) buy $7,000 ----------- balance $8,000
(4) sell $500 -------------- balance $7,500

so the candle's OHLC will be:
$5,000/$8,000/$1,000/$7,500

I hope we understand this? Now the "challenge" is with the quantity traded. If they did a total transaction of $11,500 why then is the closing balance not $5,000 + $11,500? Obviously some of the buy-sell transactions have "cancelled out" leaving the EXCESS BUY OF $2,500
Remember total buy ($7,000) while the total sell is ($1,000 + $3,000 + $500) = $4,500
So excess buy will be $2,500 this excess buy is what will be added to the opening balance.

The big question i8s this: HOW CAN YOU DISTINGUISH between buy - sell in each period?
  • #720,894
  • Jan 14, 2023 5:52am Jan 14, 2023 5:52am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Thank you very much for responding. Your answer is 100% correct! Thanks again. Let me do the break down below Open $5,000 (1) sell $1,000 ----------- balance $4,000 (2) sell $3,000 ----------- balance $1,000 (3) buy $7,000 ----------- balance $8,000 (4) sell $500 -------------- balance $7,500 so the candle's OHLC will be: $5,000/$8,000/$1,000/$7,500 I hope we understand this? Now the "challenge" is with the quantity traded. If they did a total transaction of $11,500 why then is the closing balance not $5,000 + $11,500? Obviously some of...
I believe its impossible to distinguish unless we have an insight of intitutional data.
But mere idea can be taken by the candle closing higher... which would an overall buy volume is prevailing.
  • #720,895
  • Edited 6:17am Jan 14, 2023 5:56am | Edited 6:17am
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} Searched for why that OB didnt worked out is because a valid OB is considered only when it is a liquidity sweep. The OB at 1.2189-1.2180 on 1hr TF, which got wreck and the OB at 1.2174-1.2165 took all the stops of the 1.2189-0 OB and/or under it. The 1.2174-65 Dzone(OB) is where the institutional orders actually lies so when price return to it, they may fight the bears to protect the wall. Any comment of different views is welcomed. Ps: will post chart once i reach home.
The Chart
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More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #720,896
  • Jan 14, 2023 6:31am Jan 14, 2023 6:31am
Quoting Teek
{quote} Yeah, you buy the lows and sell the highs. Surprisingly most people do it the other way around, I don't know why.
I guess FOMO(Fear of Missing Out) is the sole reason why people do such this.
I learned this through Intraday trading Crypto and later realized that FOMO constantly make me do the opposite of what I should be doing if i were to make some money. Then I no longer trade intraday, I used 4hr chart for entry and Daily and weekly chart, which eliminate noises.

Investing also create such scenario and i believe IPOs for stocks also consist of the same thing, cause at IPOs your money is making the founder(s) and angel investors richer, and they start dumping the moment you hit that buy button.
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #720,897
  • Jan 14, 2023 8:58am Jan 14, 2023 8:58am
Quoting kk300
{quote} I believe its impossible to distinguish unless we have an insight of intitutional data. But mere idea can be taken by the candle closing higher... which would an overall buy volume is prevailing.
It is not "impossible" to distinguish between buy and sell quantity for each period.

Impossible says I'M POSSIBLE
  • #720,898
  • Jan 14, 2023 9:04am Jan 14, 2023 9:04am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Reference to the above post, Give this chart some time that is how i see the live while it is unfolding Red lines are H4 High/Lows and Green Lines are M30 High/lows, yellow ones are FVG after stop hunts - before computers it is only open high low and close people used to see right ! {image} It may be a HINDSIGHT chart but i call it BACK TESTING ! Voila perhaps that's the only way i can learn is with back testing and its perfect way to learn folks for you too i am sure every one doing it already to see where we...

Hindsight is not about backtesting. You truly are backtesting with hindsight. Hindsight means that when you live execute you post after the fact that it reached your target or price shoot away from entry but you dont post when you enter. So what happens is that in order for you(or anyone else) to take that first take profit you entrered like 3-10 times and got stopped out before you reached your tp the first time. Thats what is ment by hindsight.

Take care and happy testing!
How to succeed in zero sum game?
  • #720,899
  • Edited 9:52am Jan 14, 2023 9:24am | Edited 9:52am
A sub 13wk awr week just closed again, (51%) as Georginson alluded to in his post above. Some good swings however in that small wkly pip range - particularly for entries timed on the sub 1hr t/f's. Unsurprisingly 3 of the 5 trading days were sub 30day adr days, but price did make a new 1hr/4hr general uptrend hi on Thurs and Fri. So far this mth, 51% of 6mth amr has been traveled by price.

Wkly A with general uptrend follow-thru from last week's pinbar close this week resulting in a small range bullish thrust close. A 3rd consecutive HL now on this t/f now with the close of this week's candle, ie 0922, 1145, and last week's 1840 lo respectively. The t/f remains in a general uptrend with the 1st HH being @ 2445.
Dly The t/f remains in a general uptrend too despite the LL @ 1840 - last wk's lo. Further fractal prints on this t/f this week just closed have been a H @ 2119, and a HL @ 2088 There is a wkly desc t/line that joins 3644 with 2445 which on Monday's dly candle will come thru circa 2315-25. Friday's dly candle closed bullishly
4Hr This t/f is also now in a general uptrend, and it's last candle close was bullish, the hi challenging the prev 1hr/minor 4hr sw hi zone = prev res = pot res, that extends up to Fri's/the wk's 2248 hi. A HH (2248,) and HL (2150,) are the last 2 fractal swings on this t/f.

So, the wkly close and the uptrends on 1hr to wkly t/f probably implies that more upside is probable at some point during the coming week, fundies allowing. Wkly, Friday's Dly, and last 4hr candle closes - all closed near to their hi's.

NB: chart conditions per 3-candle fractal swing analysis.

Wkly, Dly, and 4Hr below show the potential supp/res/sbr/rbs factors relative to each t/f. Also current state of the 10/20/50 ema crosses.
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #720,900
  • Jan 14, 2023 9:41am Jan 14, 2023 9:41am
Quoting Headland
A sub 13wk awr week just closed again, (51%) as Georginson alluded to in his post above. Some good swings however in that small wkly pip range - particularly for entries timed on the sub 1hr t/f's. Unsurprisingly 3 of the 5 trading days were sub 30day adr days, but price did make a new 1hr/4hr general uptrend hi on Thurs and Fri. So far this mth, 51% of 6mth amr has been traveled by price. Wkly A with general uptrend follow-thru from last week's pinbar close this week resulting in a small range bullish thrust close. A 3rd consecutive HL now...
In my days off using pivot points, I noticed that whenever we have a period that is far less than the usual ATR, we should be expecting an "explosive" move next.

I expect that either the R3 or S3 for the new week will be exceeded. My bias will be for sell side.

All the best everyone!
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