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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #720,181
  • Jan 12, 2023 2:15am Jan 12, 2023 2:15am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} This suggests to me that 25 BP at the next FED might be a pipe dream!
Likely Dan TPM....

As we know, The Fed and US govt are approaching the same situation that Japan is in.

There is too much debt to allow higher interest rates for any long period of time.
They can briefly raise rates, like now.
But they won't be able to keep it here long term.

The Fed members keeps indicating they will raise rates to 5% and keep them there until at least 2024
I don't think the Fed has any good choices here. The Fed is trapped.
Too much debt.
A) If they keep raising rates and hold them at 5%+ long term, then we have a Depression.
B) If they cut rates, then inflation rages back to new records.

Terminal debt trap.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #720,182
  • Jan 12, 2023 2:20am Jan 12, 2023 2:20am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Likely Dan TPM.... As we know, The Fed and US govt are approaching the same situation that Japan is in. There is too much debt to allow higher interest rates for any long period of time. They can briefly raise rates, like now. But they won't be able to keep it here long term. The Fed members keeps indicating they will raise rates to 5% and keep them there until at least 2024 I don't think the Fed has any good choices here. The Fed is trapped. Too much debt. A) If they keep raising rates and hold them at 5%+ long term, then we have a Depression....
Some said it may start cut Q4 2023 itself
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #720,183
  • Jan 12, 2023 2:21am Jan 12, 2023 2:21am
G/M, Doji dly candle y/day after meeting support at the prev 4hr/dly sw hi zone = prev res = pot rbs...Today is probably what the market has been waiting for all week, (?) - the U.s Cpi numbers later. On 4hr off the 2209/10 H, we have had a HL, LH and a L, and what could turn out to be a 2nd LH?

4hr below

...still v.rangy on 1hr

1hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #720,184
  • Jan 12, 2023 2:31am Jan 12, 2023 2:31am
DXY

Fair to say the DXY has dropped a fair way.
Let's look at this as an opportunity to get into a position for the next move higher.

This will mean eurusd and gbpusd will move lower as they make up most the trading against the dollar.

DXY is ready for a pump after retesting this level, if it does so, then next few weeks would be painful for EUR, GBP, crypo & others
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NOTE :
The Dollar looks ready to make a move again.
High Yield Corporate Bonds are sitting on a ledge as well.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #720,185
  • Jan 12, 2023 2:35am Jan 12, 2023 2:35am
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} Some said it may start cut Q4 2023 itself
FED Interst Rates.

Those betting the FED will cut interest rates this year are likely correct, but the cuts won't be the result of lower inflation, but higher inflation that puts upward pressure on long-term interest rates and unemployment.


Personally, I think it wil be most likely next year, election year.
The most they will do by end of year is to stop raising rates.
(Here come Trumps.......)
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #720,186
  • Jan 12, 2023 2:35am Jan 12, 2023 2:35am
The gap down open on Daily DXY after 2 doji not look good for the weekly support
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #720,187
  • Jan 12, 2023 2:37am Jan 12, 2023 2:37am
GBPUSD
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  • #720,188
  • Jan 12, 2023 2:39am Jan 12, 2023 2:39am
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} Some said it may start cut Q4 2023 itself
To add to my point in previous post,
" The Fed cannot lower rates, it’s not even up to them."
(YES, you read that right)....

It’s up to the bond market.
The Fed just pretends it’s up to them, but it’s really about the supply and demand of the bonds
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #720,189
  • Jan 12, 2023 2:42am Jan 12, 2023 2:42am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} To add to my point in previous post, " The Fed cannot lower rates, it’s not even up to them." (YES, you read that right).... It’s up to the bond market. The Fed just pretends it’s up to them, but it’s really about the supply and demand of the bonds
And speaking of the bond market - we've got the U.s 'debt ceiling; thing coming in a maga-controlled republican congress later in year - that should be fun as those 20 or so 'maga' rebels that held out against McCarthy for speaker will likely rebel, and could cause markets to take fright with the possibility of a U.s default, and if that should happen, well........
Trader with an Edge.
  • #720,190
  • Jan 12, 2023 2:42am Jan 12, 2023 2:42am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} To add to my point in previous post, " The Fed cannot lower rates, it’s not even up to them." (YES, you read that right).... It’s up to the bond market. The Fed just pretends it’s up to them, but it’s really about the supply and demand of the bonds
Agreed on that.
History showed before FED announced for a 25bps cut, the yield curve already down by 150bps starting point 6 month prior FOMC
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #720,191
  • Jan 12, 2023 2:46am Jan 12, 2023 2:46am
Quoting mysterio
We're in an h4 demand zone. 1.2075-1.21. there may be a case for a buy here but we'll need to see some shift in market structure on the short time frame first.
S&D traders will have noticed the big H4 demand zone at 1.21 and potentially still be long up above the resistance at 1.2185, let's see what happens
  • #720,192
  • Jan 12, 2023 2:47am Jan 12, 2023 2:47am
Is there any chance for FED rate to remain unchange on FEB 1 FOMC?
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #720,193
  • Jan 12, 2023 2:54am Jan 12, 2023 2:54am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} The trader that runs away from uncertain market condition, lives to trade profitably another day...
Hahahahahahaha, it is better to run oooo and save our lives/account, sometimes a one day trade is not worth loosing 30 days of profit. Lol

the pains and regrets it leaves you with, you can't wish it even for your enemies.... Lol
THE TRUTH IS SIMPLE,ACCEPTING THE SIMPLICITY OF THE TRUTH IS WHAT IS HARD
  • #720,194
  • Jan 12, 2023 3:00am Jan 12, 2023 3:00am
Cable
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!! Radha Radha !!
  • #720,195
  • Edited 3:23am Jan 12, 2023 3:01am | Edited 3:23am
No two recessions are alike.

If the BoE is forced to raise interest rates above the FED then we could easily see 8% mortgage rates this year.
For anyone thinking that wont happen...there's a reason why the UK has to have higher rates then the US, the £ collapses in value otherwise.
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I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #720,196
  • Jan 12, 2023 3:09am Jan 12, 2023 3:09am
Let's see where's my GBPJPY and USDJPY doing now.

I might proceed to close these trades before CPI, despite me having a target that's much lower. I can always add more trades back during and after CPI. That volatility.

I like that calm before the storm. The question is, will there be a storm today? haha....
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  • #720,197
  • Jan 12, 2023 3:10am Jan 12, 2023 3:10am
Quoting Moty
the drop is coming {image} {image}
I think 1.2138 making support so he can push him up
  • #720,198
  • Jan 12, 2023 3:13am Jan 12, 2023 3:13am
I believe that the MM's are simply playing with us in front of the CPI release now!
  • #720,199
  • Jan 12, 2023 3:13am Jan 12, 2023 3:13am
...price challenging a prev 30min sw hi zone after 4 x 5min attempts on the prev 1hr sw lo zone below it that is @ current dly lo.

1hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #720,200
  • Jan 12, 2023 3:17am Jan 12, 2023 3:17am
Quoting Yngwie
Up above 1.2130
Live trade ~ GBPUSD only. No chart! Follow at your own risk!
836 traders viewing now, 1 is registered:
HTG