USD/JPY Discussion

I sold after the NFP report from 133.5

take profit is 130.4

Still on trend hopefully.

& -> https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post14278697

closed my longs, everything booked across the board and out for the week.
Numbers better than before but slightly worse than forecasts has the USD struggle to hold, for now...
lol macroeconomics

I Agree, I was to afraid to keep my long after the push back at around 134.750 and sold mine during the drop there. Had a great run and will await and observe for now.

So, a look at the Daily.
As price pulled back to Equlibrium after it ran some Buyside, all I do is mark my actual tradingrange and next external Liquidity Levels to both sides and wait.
Technicly it looks bearish as we keep opening and closing below the EMA 21, but fundamental analysts talk a lot of strength into the USD.
You be your own judge.

this is NOT a trading idea

I'm eyeing that H4 126 zone as well. That'll be the next stop if we break below the 127.50 zone on the daily chart imo.

Everyone is so sure the pair will drop more, so I guess most will be surprised on Monday.

Ok.. my bearish lean is over. Looking for longs. No news this week to send us flying back down. News last week didn't send us plummeting, and the 1hr chart shows a nice wave 4 correction off of that news which was needed for us to continue higher. I think we will be going north again until at least March with corrections along the way My only pause is that the daily seems to need another leg down to complete wave 4 there, and may get to 133.8 before it turns to finish the bearish activity. Perhaps news is coming out in the coming weeks that will satisfy this. The Daily chart showing this move down as a wave 4 so I have been expecting one more push to the upside before anything long term bearish. 157 target will satisfy me to the upside when it finally gets there.

I'm NEUTRAL on this. Price sits exactly at equilibrium.
Lower timeframes show a bullish market structure shift after taking out a significant old low, but we failed to break and close above current trading range.
We grabbed some very obvious Buyside Liquidity there and went back down to Equlibrium (50% range) and that's where we are night now.
We kept opening/closing below the 21 ema Daily though and on the charts the Downtrend looks very much intact.
But I still see that bullish shift on the lower timeframe.
USD numbers were actualy pretty good, better than before and just slightly worse than expected. Markets just overreacted a little bit to the "slightly worse than expected" and totaly ignored the "better than before" part. Naturaly NFP gets used to "clean up" to either side of price and with a Friday close in the middle of nowhere, this leaves us in a neutral stage.
There are more USD numbers rolling in...

H1 Intraday, a look at the first week of 2023
(please keep in mind the longer timeframes Downtrend is not broken)
((I did not mark up my personal entries for intraday LONGS or SHORTS on the chart, I keep that to myself as I don't want people to copy me.)

USDJPY price action on the daily time frame turned sideways after a bullish pushback from the 131.300/129.100 horizontal support zone (green) seen on the weekly time frame. However, there is still some bearish pressure, and we may see another retest of the zone in the early part of this week.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP

A soft CPI this week should cause a big dump in this pair

I would expect the price to fall below 130

did u see usd/jpy inverted H&S....BuYYY..heheh

Maybe to the flip

More immediate,



Could go back to 137 also, gives the appearance of an inverse head+shoulders, but reversal technically wont happen for another 2 weeks

Partial & +ve sl at the flip zone.

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/n/nTVVnfP4.png i thinke this is right

bigger dump is coming after a soft CPI report