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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #719,581
  • Jan 10, 2023 3:24am Jan 10, 2023 3:24am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} US CPI (Inflation Data) Thursday. Economist xpect to see a further moderation in the annual rate of inflation from 7.1% down to 6.6% - still more than three times higher than the Fed's 2% target. CPI (US inflation data) will help determine the size of the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate increase. Here is Cleveland Fed Nowcast on US CPI on Thursday. Read carefully, it is higher than expected.{image} In conclusion.... Fed decides its policy on inflation Target is to bring it down to 2% vs 7.1%currently Jobs data – Strong But, Most important...
hi dear mr pat can you pleaaase talk a little bit about liquidity.what is exactly on those green and red lines marked liquidity? is it stop losses ?do you mean supply or demand zones? order blocks whaaat?
  • #719,582
  • Jan 10, 2023 3:30am Jan 10, 2023 3:30am
...4hr = LH, LL(1840,) H (@ y/day's 2210 hi) now. Another test of this 1st upside prev 1hr sw hi zone now. An upside follow-thru on the prev 1hr piercing pattern close.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #719,583
  • Jan 10, 2023 3:30am Jan 10, 2023 3:30am
Support and resistance is an illusion that whenever there is a supply and demand in particular zone it automatically becomes a support or resistance. This believe is affecting our trade in general.

A Level can be reprice at any time. It is better to understand liquidity in this context.

Just because it has been buying does NOT mean it should start selling this is what support and resistance over cloud our sense of reasoning with. I suffered this for a long time and I am going to argue later on that there is nothing like support and resistance but liquidity

Weekly quote: I haven't failed, I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work
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  • #719,584
  • Jan 10, 2023 3:36am Jan 10, 2023 3:36am
Quoting tradexyz
{quote} A in decision was made{image}decision was made
if you look on GBPUSD 15m chart than maybe you are marking some candles as "indecision" . it doesn't reflect the real picture.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #719,585
  • Jan 10, 2023 3:44am Jan 10, 2023 3:44am
...bulls struggling to make any significant upside progress after the pullback off y/day's hi to current dly lo...just encountered supply at the 2nd upside prev 1hr sw hi zone = prev res = pot res.

1hr below
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 11 KB
Trader with an Edge.
  • #719,586
  • Jan 10, 2023 3:44am Jan 10, 2023 3:44am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} I am trading toward your entry point. This really scares me but I have to follow what my strategy directs me to do.

People tend to think in the same way other people think.
The prophecies in the market are often self-fulfilled.

One of my strongest ideas is that greed and fear control many of these movements.
In my opinion, given how the fundamentals are shaking out, there is greed and fear present in the market.

Thus we trade differently and interpret market in our own ways
I'm trying to find where thus "MM" will strike next for liquidity, to full fill their book order.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #719,587
  • Jan 10, 2023 3:44am Jan 10, 2023 3:44am
Quoting BigNumbers
Support and resistance is an illusion that whenever there is a supply and demand in particular zone it automatically becomes a support or resistance. This believe is affecting our trade in general. A Level can be reprice at any time. It is better to understand liquidity in this context. Just because it has been buying does NOT mean it should start selling this is what support and resistance over cloud our sense of reasoning with. I suffered this for a long time and I am going to argue later on that there is nothing like support and resistance...
So how do you identify where liquidity is? If it's a horizontal line then it doesn't matter if it's called s/r or kill zone or whatever. It's a price level/zone where a minor/major trend can start.
I always viewed supports as once it was broken it's not going to be much of a resistance on the way back up. However, if price gets back over it, it'll become support again. This is more often the case than support becoming resistance. At least on the low timeframes i'm concerned with. If support becomes resistance then we can identify it as a strong level of selling interest.
The same is true for resistances.
  • #719,588
  • Jan 10, 2023 3:45am Jan 10, 2023 3:45am
Quoting tradexyz
{quote} A in decision was made{image}decision was made
up date
  • #719,589
  • Jan 10, 2023 3:46am Jan 10, 2023 3:46am
Quoting BigNumbers
Support and resistance is an illusion that whenever there is a supply and demand in particular zone it automatically becomes a support or resistance. This believe is affecting our trade in general. A Level can be reprice at any time. It is better to understand liquidity in this context. Just because it has been buying does NOT mean it should start selling this is what support and resistance over cloud our sense of reasoning with. I suffered this for a long time and I am going to argue later on that there is nothing like support and resistance but...
What is liquidity? Show me
How to succeed in zero sum game?
  • #719,590
  • Jan 10, 2023 3:48am Jan 10, 2023 3:48am
Quoting tradexyz
{image}
up down date
  • #719,591
  • Jan 10, 2023 3:50am Jan 10, 2023 3:50am
Quoting Whale
{quote} A decision was made {image}
where? Nothing happens.
Intraday price hovers around mean, doing nothing meaningful.
We either get a retracement to Sellside, or we grab some of the Volume Imbalance Buyside at some point, but until thursday I don't really expect this to go anywhere.

M5 Intraday, Happy slaughterhouse, price hovers around mean and that's it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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and the complete H4 setup
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_2023-01-10_10-46-26.png Size: 38 KB
you are not expected to understand this
  • #719,592
  • Jan 10, 2023 3:51am Jan 10, 2023 3:51am
All support and resistance is Potential. This distinction is important. Take a prev fractal swing hi as an example, it is an area where there was an imbalance of supply/demand and thus price fell. Just because it did so in the past doesn't mean that if tested, it will do so again. The same for all potential supp/res factors you identify. As Pat eluded to in his post above, and continuing the hypothesis he makes, potential support/resistance is potential liquidity. Time is also an important factor.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #719,593
  • Jan 10, 2023 3:52am Jan 10, 2023 3:52am
Quoting hadi.ch
{quote}hi dear mr pat can you pleaaase talk a little bit about liquidity.what is exactly on those green and red lines marked liquidity? is it stop losses ?do you mean supply or demand zones? order blocks whaaat?
Whatever names we called it, that's it's up to individual traders.
Understanding the concept is far more important in trading.

MM job is to mislead the masses into bad position, getting trapped.
MM just want to get as much order going against the main direction.

Look into the concept of accumulation/distrubution in markets as a theory.
Not so much the actual indicator itself, but maybe, buyers moving into and out of a item.
The cycle of supply/demand or fear and greed.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #719,594
  • Jan 10, 2023 3:54am Jan 10, 2023 3:54am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Whatever names we called it, that's it's up to individual traders. Understanding the concept is far more important in trading. MM job is to mislead the masses into bad position, getting trapped. MM just want to get as much order going against the main direction. Look into the concept of accumulation/distrubution in markets as a theory. Not so much the actual indicator itself, but maybe, buyers moving into and out of a item. The cycle of supply/demand or fear and greed.
...and greed and fear are really '2 sides of the coin' as it were, for what is greed? It is the fear of missing out...so really the markets are all driven by fear? Understanding where liquidity may be and why is important. This takes time study, and to some extent falls into the behavioral economics category.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #719,595
  • Jan 10, 2023 3:55am Jan 10, 2023 3:55am
Quoting Teek
{quote} where? Nothing happens. Intraday price hovers around mean, doing nothing meaningful. We either get a retracement to Sellside, or we grab some of the Volume Imbalance Buyside at some point, but until thursday I don't really expect this to go anywhere. M5 Intraday, Happy slaughterhouse, price hovers around mean and that's it. {image} and the complete H4 setup{image}
Or until Powell speaks in 4 hours.
  • #719,596
  • Jan 10, 2023 3:55am Jan 10, 2023 3:55am
Quoting Headland
All support and resistance is Potential. This distinction is important. Take a prev fractal swing hi as an example, it is an area where there was an imbalance of supply/demand and thus price fell. Just because it did so in the past doesn't mean that if tested, it will do so again. The same for all potential supp/res factors you identify. As Pat eluded to in his post above, and continuing the hypothesis he makes, potential support/resistance is potential liquidity. Time is also an important factor.
I see it in this way too. support and resistance area's are to be considered and to be aware of, but not to count on as absolutes. Market will do whatever it wants at any time
I am neither brave nor stupid...I am just a part time trader
  • #719,597
  • Jan 10, 2023 3:55am Jan 10, 2023 3:55am
I have been busy. Here is my analysis on GU

if price break 1.21758. Take long and Tp at 1.22467.

price is currently trading above the weekly LQ blue line.
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  • #719,598
  • Jan 10, 2023 3:56am Jan 10, 2023 3:56am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} People tend to think in the same way other people think. The prophecies in the market are often self-fulfilled. One of my strongest ideas is that greed and fear control many of these movements. In my opinion, given how the fundamentals are shaking out, there is greed and fear present in the market. Thus we trade differently and interpret market in our own ways I'm trying to find where thus "MM" will strike next for liquidity, to full fill their book order.
Nice one sir! I remember you mentioned that you analyze from higher time frames then down to H1/M30 for entries.

Let's see the GU chart . . .

Daily time frame is BUYING

H4 is SELLING

So I expect any buying on H1 to be able to push H4 to the resistance level (or beginning of the H4 sell) @ 1.2195 thereabouts.

We might even get something better 1.2258
  • #719,599
  • Jan 10, 2023 3:56am Jan 10, 2023 3:56am
Quoting Teek
{quote} where? Nothing happens. Intraday price hovers around mean, doing nothing meaningful. We either get a retracement to Sellside, or we grab some of the Volume Imbalance Buyside at some point, but until thursday I don't really expect this to go anywhere. M5 Intraday, Happy slaughterhouse, price hovers around mean and that's it. {image} and the complete H4 setup{image}
When you say volume imbalance, is it the same as a FVG?
  • #719,600
  • Jan 10, 2023 3:56am Jan 10, 2023 3:56am
Quoting dempire1
{quote} What is liquidity? Show me
everybody talk liquidity without actually knowing what they are talking about
https://breakpullback.com
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