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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #719,001
  • Edited 7:20am Jan 7, 2023 7:08am | Edited 7:20am
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote} price cannot change direction because it's controlled by TIME, within TIME(direction) price moves in waves, HHHL if the direction is up, LHLL if the direction is down, +/- equal waves when sideways. S/R are dynamic with TIME since the market move diagonally most of the time. 6 months view in daily TF {image} 1 month view in 4H TF {image} 1 week view in 1H TF {image} 1.25 day in M15 TF {image} 10H view in M5 TF {image} cheers,

you assume that the price must move up to S------------R, but this is not always the case.

they make new levels often.
  • #719,002
  • Jan 7, 2023 7:09am Jan 7, 2023 7:09am
Market is always right.

We as traders place trades with some accuracy + High level of risk management.
Intraday only.
  • #719,003
  • Jan 7, 2023 7:11am Jan 7, 2023 7:11am
Quoting Teek
{quote} 38,2 monthly the other way around. Same level though. Price is price.


Monthly is different. Crossed the fibo 23.6%.

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Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
  • #719,004
  • Jan 7, 2023 7:25am Jan 7, 2023 7:25am
My tupence worth, trading into the trend can be dangerous as no one knows when it will end. The swing from long to short can happen without too much of a trigger. This week we saw medium level data take the pair down by 180 odd pips before recovering a bit to drop again. The NFP data wasn’t as bad to justify a big swing up. The data that followed caused the upswing. However if trading for 10-50 pips at a time there was money to be made after the news. I’ve learnt not to trade the announcement but to trade afterwards when the dust has settled.

My biggest killer is FoMo and that is something I need to work on and also to stop a trade when it’s in minimal damage area as that can be recouped easier than when I’m over 5k down.
Insane in the Brain..
  • #719,005
  • Jan 7, 2023 7:26am Jan 7, 2023 7:26am
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote} price cannot change direction because it's controlled by TIME, within TIME(direction) price moves in waves, HHHL if the direction is up, LHLL if the direction is down, +/- equal waves when sideways. S/R are dynamic with TIME since the market move diagonally most of the time. 6 months view in daily TF {image} 1 month view in 4H TF {image} 1 week view in 1H TF {image} 1.25 day in M15 TF {image} 10H view in M5 TF {image} cheers,
you can see here, I have a support level, but there is no sign of resistance yet.
it will come during memnet.
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  • #719,006
  • Jan 7, 2023 7:29am Jan 7, 2023 7:29am
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} you can see here, I have a support level, but there is no sign of resistance yet. it will come during memnet. {image}
I think there are some psychological areas that acted like resistance last time around that will need to be addressed first. 121 12140 122 and 12240
Insane in the Brain..
  • #719,007
  • Jan 7, 2023 7:41am Jan 7, 2023 7:41am
Quoting BeeTogether
{quote} I think there are some psychological areas that acted like resistance last time around that will need to be addressed first. 121 12140 122 and 12240
yes, there are levels that cannot be foreseen.
I believe trading based on numbers is a misconception.
because the price goes as long as it wants.
because there is no above or below.
  • #719,008
  • Jan 7, 2023 8:02am Jan 7, 2023 8:02am
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The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #719,009
  • Jan 7, 2023 8:07am Jan 7, 2023 8:07am
Quoting pipfarm
Can not see any reason to short further at the moment, the current H1 upswing, looking inside it's structure has not completed B or C of an ABC correction so it is more likely with B in progress the trade to make is the C up , anyway its not something i would trade. Lol , just as i was writing this a huge gap up appeared so now the structure of the previous down wave has been broken to the upside

My two cents worth
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #719,010
  • Jan 7, 2023 8:13am Jan 7, 2023 8:13am
Quoting Teek
{quote} ....

If I share some of my ideas or setups and I "get it right", people sing my name in praise.
If I have it wrong they throw shit at me and that's the norm these days.
Why I share ideas? Honestly I do not know... I shouldn't, and with all my years I should know better....

Don't put any blame on people who share their setups and trading ideas, nobody can predict the future, all we can do is anticipate and react.

Understand...
That's deep Teek......

Can you believe this?
What an incredibly beautiful post!
Teek write prose poetry! Unreal.
Thank you so much for this.
Inspiring!
Wow! I'm knocked out.


Now I feel to write my own poet too......
Whatever is true,
whatever is honorable,
whatever is just,
whatever is pure,
whatever is lovely,
whatever is commendable............
if there is any moral excellence and if there is any praise.......
dwell on these things.

Thanks for your great post.

Sincerely
PAT Chiko
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #719,011
  • Jan 7, 2023 8:23am Jan 7, 2023 8:23am
Re the ongoing discussion above on gbpusd's NFP reaction yesterday, and trying to short it...the market reacted down on the knee-jerk initial reaction to the data, but even if you got caught short on that and didn't know that it then reacted to the weak wages growth and service sector growth, the momentum it was displaying on the 'real' up-swing move should have caused traders to get involved with that up-move by going long, instead of sitting thinking, the market is wrong, and it should be going down. As someone else repeated in a post above - The market is never wrong. So if trading a technical edge/technically - get with what price is doing regardless of what you think should be happening, - the market doesn't care what we think. Anyone shorting that upswing yesterday was basically saying ' the market is wrong, it should be doing what I think it should be doing, ' and got punished for such arrogance. Leave your opinions to one side and approach the market with an open mind. Be guided by price only not what you think, or what you read here.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #719,012
  • Jan 7, 2023 8:34am Jan 7, 2023 8:34am
Quoting Headland
Re the ongoing discussion above on gbpusd's NFP reaction yesterday, and trying to short it...the market reacted down on the knee-jerk initial reaction to the data, but even if you got caught short on that and didn't know that it then reacted to the weak wages growth and service sector growth, the momentum it was displaying on the 'real' up-swing move should have caused traders to get involved with that up-move by going long, instead of sitting thinking, the market is wrong, and it should be going down. As someone else repeated in a post above -...
Great post and there has been many great posts recently, it's been pleasure reading them, unfortunately my english is shit and find it hard to express in words what I want to say....
  • #719,013
  • Jan 7, 2023 8:35am Jan 7, 2023 8:35am
Quoting FulMargnAlch
{image}
Love this post ...
  • #719,014
  • Jan 7, 2023 8:46am Jan 7, 2023 8:46am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Great post and there has been many great posts recently, it's been pleasure reading them, unfortunately my english is shit and find it hard to express in words what I want to say....
I thought I was the only one capable of that .
But that was some time back when Karen try to correct my englis..........
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #719,015
  • Jan 7, 2023 9:31am Jan 7, 2023 9:31am
Quoting Teek
{quote} Well, I too had to cover longs and shorts 15 minutes post NFP, on multiple USD pairs because: Forecasters and analysts ("prophets" we might call them) got it slightly wrong on their NFP predictions. They missed by only 23k on the NFP forecasts, even got it right on the Unemployed % number, still markets turned harder than they should and things looked scary for the USD. I NEVER trade important red flags intraday! I did carry some longs and shorts on major USD pairs, based on Daily/Weekly and I made sure I can cover NFP. My sole reason to...
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #719,016
  • Jan 7, 2023 9:45am Jan 7, 2023 9:45am
Quoting Teek
{quote} Well, I too had to cover longs and shorts 15 minutes post NFP, on multiple USD pairs because: Forecasters and analysts ("prophets" we might call them) got it slightly wrong on their NFP predictions. They missed by only 23k on the NFP forecasts, even got it right on the Unemployed % number, still markets turned harder than they should and things looked scary for the USD. I NEVER trade important red flags intraday! I did carry some longs and shorts on major USD pairs, based on Daily/Weekly and I made sure I can cover NFP. My sole reason to...
Great post! Nothing but bare truth - love it!!!
Live long and prosper with green pips!
  • #719,017
  • Jan 7, 2023 10:03am Jan 7, 2023 10:03am
“Instead of speaking of the possibility of an event occurring, we might speak, more precisely, of an inherent propensity to produce, upon repetition, a certain statistical average. These tendencies and propensities have led to the emergence of life. And they have led to the unfolding of life, the evolution of life. And the evolution of life has led to better conditions for life on earth, and thus to new possibilities and propensities; and to new forms of life that differ utterly. All this means that possibilities – even possibilities that have not yet realized themselves – have a kind of reality; a kind of, as yet, conditional reality. The numerical propensities that attach to the possibilities can be interpreted as a measure of this status of a not yet fully realized reality – a reality in the making. And in so far as these possibilities can, and partly will, realize themselves in time, in the future, the open future is, almost as a promise, as a temptation, as a lure, present; indeed, actively present, at every moment. The old world picture that puts before us a mechanism operating with causes that are all in the past – the past kicking and driving us with kicks into the future – the past that is gone – is no longer adequate to our indeterministic world. Causation is just a special case of propensity and a comparatively rare case: the case of a propensity equal to 1, a determining demand, or force, for realization. It is not the kicks from the back, from the past, that impel us, but the attraction, the lure of the future and its attractive possibilities that entice us: this is what keeps life – and, indeed, the world – unfolding.”
- Karl Popper

To me the kicks from the past and the lure of the future are best represented by the trend. Reversals are hard work, studying the tendencies and propensities of the past and open future to push and pull and then create a trend change in a different time and direction to now, is too difficult for me. It is much easier and safer to avoid the beginning/end of trends entirely and just attempt to catch some of the middle.

We don’t have to understand the factors involved. Even if it were possible to identify all the factors that played a part in the market at any one time, it would take months, perhaps years, to measure them accurately, and by then different factors would be in play.
  • #719,018
  • Jan 7, 2023 10:13am Jan 7, 2023 10:13am
Quoting sharingan9
{quote} That's a nice catch! Is that a South African Kob??
Yes, Typical weight in the lagoon or estuary about 2.5 to 5 Kg's. I have caught bigger up to 12 kg's. Very nice eating. I am planning another day fishing trip tomorrow.
Cheers.
Trade to trade another day
  • #719,019
  • Jan 7, 2023 10:35am Jan 7, 2023 10:35am
Quoting kk300
{quote} The reason to short was the NFP didnt break the asian high and retraced too quickly... mean while i was on thread watching pros shorting it... so i switched and made a mistake.. it was later on the ISM bring those fireworks.. but my original plan was to tp at 1.2000 or the weekly open.

without the ISM data maybe 1.20 couldn’t be reached. That changed everything. During news times everything can happen. Sometimes they buy just for fun 100pips and a little moment they sell 200 pips.

But your decision to buy was a good one The market wanted to much very good data.
  • #719,020
  • Jan 7, 2023 10:39am Jan 7, 2023 10:39am
Quoting Indigo45
{quote} That's great... love to see you camping. I do love fishing, camping and hunting...
Hi Indigo,
I love the sea and everything it has to offer. I am also a deep sea skipper and go on occasional trips. I have a dedicated crew that I have known for years and when we get together it is all out fishing. I am not so much on the hunting side but camping and fishing is something I love.
Cheers.
Trade to trade another day
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