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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #718,081
  • Edited 4:30am Jan 5, 2023 4:13am | Edited 4:30am
Quoting BigNumbers
Update!!! GBPUSD broke out of M30 LQ Zone to the upside but M30 is weak compare to H4 or D1 break out. If you’re selling observe the market closely.
EUR/USD Daily gave me Short signal yesterday I think. That should mean USD is again going to be strong on the news (NFP). With that in mind we might see another push to R. ~1.208

Will keep that in mind, thanks!

Also, judging by where the price is now, they might eliminate S on NFP.

And look, I'm not saying Pound is dead after NFP, because I still have that Weekly Chart suggesting Long. We still might see another big push up before the drop comes. I am anticipating recession hence why I anticipate another big drop.
  • #718,082
  • Jan 5, 2023 4:15am Jan 5, 2023 4:15am
Quoting TheWolf
GBP/USD Hourly Short @ 1.20332 SL 1.20647 Gotta practice what I preach ha? Coffee time no? Bye Forex! This is the only trade for today I think. Not much action going on, I think they are preparing for tommorow.. {image}
It looks like the range is contracting, on H1 its forming a triangle, which is basically a useless TA pattern BUT I think is a sign the range is likely to contract pre NFP

Once NFP is over with we can begin the year proper

Dollar has been sideways for over a month and is smack bang in the middle of the range

Too much of a toss up for me currently.
  • #718,083
  • Jan 5, 2023 4:19am Jan 5, 2023 4:19am
... I think it's fair to say 1hr and 4hr are rangy right now with dly still in a general uptrend re 3 candle fractal swing analysis.

Last 15min close would have been a good entry trigger into it's next higher t/f - the 1hr downtrend had there been a downtrend on at least that t/f, ie there was a good bearish hidden div play on that t/f there but not having a trend on at least next higher t/f in the t/f combo means these hidden div plays are far lower in probability of a winning outcome. Doesn't mean to say it won't happen of course.

4hr may be beginning to look like an inverse H&S ?
Trader with an Edge.
  • #718,084
  • Jan 5, 2023 4:26am Jan 5, 2023 4:26am
Quoting Headland
... I think it's fair to say 1hr and 4hr are rangy right now with dly still in a general uptrend re 3 candle fractal swing analysis. Last 15min close would have been a good entry trigger into it's next higher t/f - the 1hr downtrend had there been a downtrend on at least that t/f, ie there was a good bearish hidden div play on that t/f there but not having a trend on at least next higher t/f in the t/f combo means these hidden div plays are far lower in probability of a winning outcome. Doesn't mean to say it won't happen of course. 4hr may be beginning...
This fake NFP never produces any play..
That's why I'm not trading that much anymore if there isn't at least one High-Impact news on that particular day that actually matters. This way I avoid Range and loss of the money..
  • #718,085
  • Jan 5, 2023 4:33am Jan 5, 2023 4:33am
Quoting TheWolf
{quote} This fake NFP never produces any play.. That's why I'm not trading that much anymore if there isn't at least one High-Impact news on that particular day that actually matters. This way I avoid Range and loss of the money..
Yea I certainly wouldn't recommend trading the event

But it is often the catalyst to break long held ranges along with FOMC

NFP is a general gauge of the demand side and FOMC the supply side of the largest economy in the world in very basic terms

So it should push the market out of this phase, but we'll see
  • #718,086
  • Jan 5, 2023 4:33am Jan 5, 2023 4:33am
Quoting TheWolf
{quote} This fake NFP never produces any play.. That's why I'm not trading that much anymore if there isn't at least one High-Impact news on that particular day that actually matters. This way I avoid Range and loss of the money..
Yeah it's the scheduled fundie event risk highlight of the week isn't it? ...a pretty slow week re fundie data releases though. I've had 3 hi-probability trading set-ups and one lower-prob trading set-up since my session began at 0820am London time....I operate on lower t/f triggers, most typically 1min, 3min, and 5min, (sometimes higher) so can still be productive/gainful in a 1hr/4hr range, although I understand it is difficult/frustrating for some other types of traders, particularly trend traders.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #718,087
  • Jan 5, 2023 4:37am Jan 5, 2023 4:37am
Quoting TheWolf
GBP/USD Hourly Short @ 1.20332 SL 1.20647 Gotta practice what I preach ha? Coffee time no? Bye Forex! This is the only trade for today I think. Not much action going on, I think they are preparing for tommorow.. {image}
Due to the threats from banks, I was forced to close the trade.. +13 pips. Better nothing than something right?

I'm done for today.. I agree with the rest that today is a Range hence why I closed the trade. GL to the rest of you!

Closed @ 1.20206.
  • #718,088
  • Jan 5, 2023 4:43am Jan 5, 2023 4:43am
Quoting TheWolf
{quote} Due to the threats from banks, I was forced to close the trade.. +13 pips. Better nothing than something right? I'm done for today.. I agree with the rest that today is a Range hence why I closed the trade. GL to the rest of you! Closed @ 1.20206.
In my analysis this morning, I noted that H1 is overdue to go up. And as can be seen, it is in a new up swing now and I have closed 1 buy. I also looked for the retracements on lower TFs to start, and already closed one sell. M15 is due for its pullback, so looking for a sell opportunity now as well.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #718,089
  • Jan 5, 2023 4:43am Jan 5, 2023 4:43am
Quoting TheWolf
{quote} This fake NFP never produces any play.. That's why I'm not trading that much anymore if there isn't at least one High-Impact news on that particular day that actually matters. This way I avoid Range and loss of the money..
fake or not fake news, the market will react anyway, especially if the results are outstanding.
  • #718,090
  • Jan 5, 2023 4:44am Jan 5, 2023 4:44am
i have penitent mf !!!
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yes yes yes
  • #718,091
  • Jan 5, 2023 4:47am Jan 5, 2023 4:47am
Quoting JayBag
{quote} I agree and that's exactly where my mental stop is at. Damnn, I thought I saw that alone lol. Spike Lee is lurking and he may come out strong. I am starting to think we may see way above 1.21 area Let's see
Speaking of expecting the price to go above 1.21 area, I have 1.224163 as a new target area for the week. (I really would appreciate an IMPULSIVE move as opposed to squeezing)
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  • #718,092
  • Jan 5, 2023 4:48am Jan 5, 2023 4:48am
Quoting Moty
{image}
hello Moty Finally can we see that 1.1980 position?
  • #718,093
  • Jan 5, 2023 4:57am Jan 5, 2023 4:57am
How about this...

We consider short--medium term bearish...
Decending triangle are there...

break and stay below 1.2 consider sold...hahhaa

BOE will dissapointed soon...
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Bismillah
  • #718,094
  • Jan 5, 2023 4:59am Jan 5, 2023 4:59am
Quoting tauhidur
{quote} hello Moty Finally can we see that 1.1980 position?
ideal long for me today 1975/85
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #718,095
  • Jan 5, 2023 5:00am Jan 5, 2023 5:00am
...1hr closes as an indecision candle really although bearish-bodied. Price at the current p/back hi has just about reached 50% of the day's current main move fall....could see further supply in the 4hr part of this prev 1hr/minor 4hr sw lo zone to circa 2054 if tested, in which there are fibs and that prev 1hr sw hi zone where it was 1st tested, and held as sbr.

1hr below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #718,096
  • Jan 5, 2023 5:02am Jan 5, 2023 5:02am
Hoping that the minor structure will hold, if not, I criii.
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The market hides a perfect geometry.
  • #718,097
  • Jan 5, 2023 5:05am Jan 5, 2023 5:05am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} ideal long for me today 1975/85
the decending triangle still in play right now....below 1.2 i think still strong bearish
Bismillah
  • #718,098
  • Jan 5, 2023 5:06am Jan 5, 2023 5:06am
C wave.
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  • #718,099
  • Jan 5, 2023 5:09am Jan 5, 2023 5:09am
...will we see an upside follow-thru on that last 4hr close - the bearish-bodied hammer-esq candle ?

4hr (gmt+2 feed) below
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #718,100
  • Jan 5, 2023 5:11am Jan 5, 2023 5:11am
Quoting krunfx
{quote} the decending triangle still in play right now....below 1.2 i think still strong bearish
on which tf ?
COT: The precious data ignored
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