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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #716,241
  • Dec 24, 2022 4:28am Dec 24, 2022 4:28am
Quoting SilentFather
{quote} Exactly as you said Don. That's why we trade against the sentiment, not with sentiment. See this, when more people sell, trend is bullish. When more people buy, trend is bearish.. This simply works. You need to be on the other side. Except one time. When sentiment is changing from bullish to bearish and vice versa, you CAN go with sentiment most of the time. (Not always, but can be. I will not explain this today. You should look at chart with sentiment and see for yourself. You will be surprised) . Because people are right...
Hi, most of the times I agree with you, but just witnessed a positive sentiment on Crude sentiment.
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85% were long, price went 1000 pips upwards from $70 to $80 in just about a week.
So depends on many factors and sentiment can be also a good clue.

And this is latest on crude -
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GU 53% long positions, kind of indecisive.
  • #716,242
  • Dec 24, 2022 4:35am Dec 24, 2022 4:35am
Quoting Jolita
{quote} Hi, most of the times I agree with you, but just witnessed a positive sentiment on Crude sentiment. {image} 85% were long, price went 1000 pips upwards from $70 to $80 in just about a week. So depends on many factors and sentiment can be also a good clue. And this is latest- {image}
Agree, that's correct. Saw this happening too, not on oil, can't remember what was that. Anyway as said my friend. It's not about blindly opening a trade when sentiment is XX% long or short. We have something called price action. I'm sure no one here is so bad that would buy in bearish market and sell in bullish. It's always better to stick to one bias.

Hope you got me :o)
  • #716,243
  • Dec 24, 2022 4:45am Dec 24, 2022 4:45am
Quoting SilentFather
{quote} Agree, that's correct. Saw this happening too, not on oil, can't remember what was that. Anyway as said my friend. It's not about blindly opening a trade when sentiment is XX% long or short. We have something called price action. I'm sure no one here is so bad that would buy in bearish market and sell in bullish. It's always better to stick to one bias. Hope you got me :o)
That switch you mentioned occurs after price crosses over 75%.
Mitiblotch is an excellent sentiment trader.
  • #716,244
  • Dec 24, 2022 5:38am Dec 24, 2022 5:38am
Quoting bilal1947
Seeing a blank chart is like looking at the world without eyes, in this struggle using indicators acts as crutches which shows the way to the blind man, thanks to the indicators. Once you have spend time with indicates and used to of them ! guess what ! You have stunted your mind that is it no more growth towards reading the Price ! sorry i bring you to this ! the only savior left is risk management. Open yourself to Learning the price/charts with no crutches ! which needs study and practice. Dare Devil the blind Child scene: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOBjYLwkRNE...
Only if you believe price leads and orders follow.
What if orders lead, then price is pushed or pulled as required to attract the required liquidity.

Suddenly a few crutches may be essential because the truth is hidden above and below price.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #716,245
  • Dec 24, 2022 5:52am Dec 24, 2022 5:52am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Only if you believe price leads and orders follow. What if orders lead, then price is pushed or pulled as required to attract the required liquidity. Suddenly a few crutches may be essential because the truth is hidden above and below price.
Do you use Bookmap at all ? I've set it as one of my goals for next year to try and get to grips with this, but only if I think its worthwhile
  • #716,246
  • Dec 24, 2022 5:58am Dec 24, 2022 5:58am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Only if you believe price leads and orders follow. What if orders lead, then price is pushed or pulled as required to attract the required liquidity. Suddenly a few crutches may be essential because the truth is hidden above and below price.
Imo price is a magnet with tension to repeat technical and historical price patterns (f.e S&P gap filled).
Orders can intervene pa, f.e option expiries, asset selling, panic selling /buying etc..
  • #716,247
  • Dec 24, 2022 6:35am Dec 24, 2022 6:35am
My opinion on the next term
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  • #716,248
  • Dec 24, 2022 6:43am Dec 24, 2022 6:43am
Quoting papatya
My opinion on the next term {image}
Based on what exactly?
  • #716,249
  • Dec 24, 2022 6:49am Dec 24, 2022 6:49am
Quoting mysterio
{quote} Do you use Bookmap at all ? I've set it as one of my goals for next year to try and get to grips with this, but only if I think its worthwhile
Bookmap is quite popular with a few of my Future trading buddies so yes - give it a go.
The real issue for you is this - Heatmaps are about trusting orders on the books and about following executed market orders as they become visible. You have to let ago of candlestick charts and run with the data on the map. Candle stick charts are still needed but they are there just to keep you out of bad trades, not for finding good trades.

You will be blindfolded for a while and its tough - roll up your sleeves and good luck
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #716,250
  • Dec 24, 2022 7:04am Dec 24, 2022 7:04am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} That's a good start, but more TFs yield better results. In addition, did you think about the multiples between TFs and the distance between adjacent TFs??? 1X5 = 5 5X3 = 15 15X2 =30 30X2 = 60 (H1) 60X4 = 240 (H4) 240X6 = 1440 (D1) When there is no consistency related to the TFs that you view, wouldn't you expect higher cognitive load in interpreting what is there, resulting in higher probability of confusion and poor results?
Price is the same on all time frames. The daily open is always the daily open. The previous daily high and low are always the previous daily high and low. Changing chart periods only changes tick data compression.

I learned this at #advancedalientrading
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #716,251
  • Dec 24, 2022 7:09am Dec 24, 2022 7:09am
Quoting Jolita
{quote} Imo price is a magnet with tension to repeat technical and historical price patterns (f.e S&P gap filled). Orders can intervene pa, f.e option expiries, asset selling, panic selling /buying etc..
But price is only a Bid at price or a Ask at price that needs two Bids or two Ask's to move price.
Price can't fill a gap unless someone enters the market with a market order.
So how can price lead, it can't go anywhere until someone gets off their fat arse and does something.

Now the mystery deepens and the rush for price to fill gaps becomes interesting.
What fact we do know is you can see Algo's pushing Sell Limit orders (while pulling Buy limit orders) to force price bearish to a gap location lower down.
Therefore, price is following orders to this gap location before that action ceases.

So facts tells us Orders leads Price - but it doesn't answer the question why the gap was filled by price anyway.

So what the hell is going on?

Don't ask me, I'll trade to the gap following orders seen on a DOM, Bilal will trade from the gap (perhaps) following price.
Maybe we should ask the Algo's but if you ask myself or Bilal - we will argue all night long.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #716,252
  • Dec 24, 2022 7:17am Dec 24, 2022 7:17am
Quoting BrainBucks
{quote} Based on what exactly?
Elliott wave & VSA analysis
  • #716,253
  • Dec 24, 2022 8:13am Dec 24, 2022 8:13am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Price is the same on all time frames. The daily open is always the daily open. The previous daily high and low are always the previous daily high and low. Changing chart periods only changes tick data compression. I learned this at #advancedalientrading
Yes indeed price is the same on all TFs. However, the patterns of the bars on smaller TFs are completely gone on the larger TF bars due to the aggregation. so looking at smaller TFs enables a view of less aggregated data, which provides additional insights that are not possible from the higher TF bars. And it is the inter-relationships of the patterns between multiple TFs that provides important information for making trading decisions.

Do you really want to say that looking at a single H4 bar tells you the same story as looking at the 16 M15 bars for that same 4-hour period? And even more important is a single H4 swing of say 4 bars versus the 64 M15 bars: H4 simply loses too much important information that M15 provides.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #716,254
  • Dec 24, 2022 8:41am Dec 24, 2022 8:41am
Quoting RickM
{quote} But price is only a Bid at price or a Ask at price that needs two Bids or two Ask's to move price. Price can't fill a gap unless someone enters the market with a market order. So how can price lead, it can't go anywhere until someone gets off their fat arse and does something. Now the mystery deepens and the rush for price to fill gaps becomes interesting. What fact we do know is you can see Algo's pushing Sell Limit orders (while pulling Buy limit orders) to force price bearish to a gap location lower down. Therefore, price is following...
`

Hi Rick,

We don't need to know what is going on we just need to be able to Sell when price is Falling and Buy when Price is Climbing.

I haven't got a clue what the Market Makers are doing

I don't care, I don't need to understand what they are doing to be able to Trade

There is far too much time spent trying to Figure it all out, I know I have in the past

If Price is going Up BUY when it Stops going Up SELL that's IT.....

If Price is going Down SELL when it Stops going Down BUY that's IT.....
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  • #716,255
  • Dec 24, 2022 8:53am Dec 24, 2022 8:53am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote}` Hi Rick, We don't need to know what is going on we just need to be able to Sell when price is Falling and Buy when Price is Climbing. I haven't got a clue what the Market Makers are doing I don't care, I don't need to understand what they are doing to be able to Trade There is far too much time spent trying to Figure it all out, I know I have in the past If Price is going Up BUY when it Stops going Up SELL that's IT..... If Price is going Down SELL when it Stops going Down BUY that's IT..... {image}
Concur 100%

Often too much time and energy are spent trying to figure out what simply refuses to be figured out! Especially when, at the end of the day, each person - regardless of tools employed or analysis painstakingly undertaken - still ends up being simply either RIGHT or WRONG.
  • #716,256
  • Dec 24, 2022 8:54am Dec 24, 2022 8:54am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote}` Hi Rick, We don't need to know what is going on we just need to be able to Sell when price is Falling and Buy when Price is Climbing. I haven't got a clue what the Market Makers are doing I don't care, I don't need to understand what they are doing to be able to Trade There is far too much time spent trying to Figure it all out, I know I have in the past If Price is going Up BUY when it Stops going Up SELL that's IT..... If Price is going Down SELL when it Stops going Down BUY that's IT..... {image}
I really like tick-charts for this. It will help you enter on high & low. Because there can be seen very nicely what price is doing.

Specially is when used with levels where big banks or fonds buy or sell. It's non-public banking information. But can be used fairy well with tick charts. I'll share them in the future but I had no time so far.

Let's say we will want to sell on round number & resistance.
This is hourly chart.
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We see nothing on the H1. But on tick chart... Let's say 50ticks.

Does it look like price HAS power to break the high? Well no...
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Even if it does later on, you would have saved X pips because you can use lower stoploss.

SF
  • #716,257
  • Dec 24, 2022 9:03am Dec 24, 2022 9:03am
Quoting SilentFather
{quote} I really like tick-charts for this. It will help you enter on high & low. Because there can be seen very nicely what price is doing. Specially is when used with levels where big banks or fonds buy or sell. It's non-public banking information. But can be used fairy well with tick charts. I'll share them in the future but I had no time so far. SF
Hi SilenFather,

Absolutely, the smaller the Scale you Trade at the earlier you can Transition from one side to the other....
  • #716,258
  • Dec 24, 2022 9:10am Dec 24, 2022 9:10am
Has anyone started to read the book?

It's amazing! I'm at the part now where he asked for his ***** back.
Watching H4 and 5 Minute Chart on the trading floor. Haha!

Don't want to spoil the book.
  • #716,259
  • Dec 24, 2022 9:15am Dec 24, 2022 9:15am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi SilenFather, Absolutely, the smaller the Scale you Trade at the earlier you can Transition from one side to the other....
Exactly! Finally someone who got that idea. We can see how price is acting. That's very big advantage over standard time-frames. I believe that with simple thing like 10 pips round numbers we can trade profitable. There are points where you can bank at least 10 pips with 0 drawdown. What I like to do it trade the second touch of low or high.
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I will do this later on tick charts again. I like this. There are plenty of possible entries. Plus, the SL here is like 3-4 pips. Who cares? I watched it for two weeks any this way we could have for example 3 losing trades and then two winning. But let's say you are trading 10 hours (bad idea) but you are doing well enough. So 3x loss 4 pips that's 12. But 2 winning trades 40 pips total.

That's in the ideal world. Or... If you really REALLY follow the system.

Also guys, happy to talk with you all even when we can't trade. Happy new year and Merry Christmas to all of You my friends.

Always happy to share with Ya all!
  • #716,260
  • Dec 24, 2022 9:20am Dec 24, 2022 9:20am
Thanks for helping my friends here! Merry Chrismas!
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