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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #11,421
  • Edited 12:17am Apr 27, 2007 12:00am | Edited 12:17am
Quoting aicccia
Facts and logic have nothing to do with being right in the forex market. The market is rarely logical and there's no such thing as a Fact in a sea of 1.9 trillion dollars a day of liquidity. The price will go where ever it wants.
??? Did you really say that facts and logic have nothing to do with being right ???

Think about what you said there.

Are you actually making money at trading? Do you just flip a coin or do you (like the banks do) take into consideration technical facts like fibo retracements? Do you ignore interest rate decisions or poor NFP results because you believe they are illogical and they have no real bearing as the market will go wherever it wants to?

Are you serious?

BTW - In his book Igrok poo poos fibs and pivots etc.
  • #11,422
  • Apr 27, 2007 12:11am Apr 27, 2007 12:11am
Quoting aicccia
Facts and logic have nothing to do with being right in the forex market. The market is rarely logical and there's no such thing as a Fact in a sea of 1.9 trillion dollars a day of liquidity. The price will go wherever trader sentiment decides it will go.

From your posts it seems you getting very emotionally attached to the market, just a warning, that's not so good. You say you only trade what you see in front of you. Well then disregarding possible future fundamentals which are not in front of you, does the price still have a bullish look?
I am an emotional person. Currently I am attached to a substantial chair with a mug of coffee periodically attached to my hand.

Trading what you see backed up by fundamentals:-

I use fibo etc., recent far east action and previous days trend to help me assess the probable market trend for the day.

I mainly trade the Frankfurt and London open. Just after 7-00 GMT. I use 3 EMAs and look for a particular pattern. I aim for a quick 20+ pips and try to get out of trade by 9-00 (before GBP fundamentals).

If I haven't made my pips for the day I look to bottom fish using bolinger to make up the rest of my pips. Again, avoiding the fundamentals.

Bullish? YES price has bounced of 23.6 fibo. Agreed it could test 38.2 but I feel it will trend back up today. But today I rest as I was stopped out yesterday. I called it wrong and I broke one of my cardinal rules and didn't exit in advance of healthy distance stop loss.
  • #11,423
  • Apr 27, 2007 12:16am Apr 27, 2007 12:16am
Quoting dd33
wow... seems like a lot of "hot" arguments happening yesterday on late europe - american session. If the arguments is still unsettled, is there any possibilities that this will once again going with Why oh Why's way. Too bad i missed all the actions yesterday since its nite time in asia. Looking for a good time to jump in for bottom fishing.
It could have been great yesterday for me and a couple of other guys here but our sell limits were missed by 2 - 3 pips and we didn't catch the drop. I did a Sell Stop at 5 pips above just before I went to bed last night and it's open and showing a loss. All in all not a great day.

But I still remain bullish for the reasons you all know and documented elsewhere.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #11,424
  • Apr 27, 2007 12:18am Apr 27, 2007 12:18am
I don't know how you guys feel about this but It seems that as long as you're
willing to accept a little additional drawdown, she always seems to come back.....
just trying to make a little on a lot.....
  • #11,425
  • Apr 27, 2007 12:22am Apr 27, 2007 12:22am
Quoting Why Oh Why
But I still remain bullish for the reasons you all know and documented elsewhere.
ATM IMO as you can see here.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #11,426
  • Apr 27, 2007 12:26am Apr 27, 2007 12:26am
Quoting snowman
I don't know how you guys feel about this but It seems that as long as you're
willing to accept a little additional drawdown, she always seems to come back.....
I hear what you're saying, but timing truly is everything. It all comes down to how much of a loss you can stomach while you wait for it to come back (and it doesn't always come back, btw... : ) and also, simply, how much you are leveraged and how much of a loss your account can sustain. GBPUSD as an example will no doubt hit 2.000 again, but what if you go long right now and have to ride it down to 1.97 first? Can you or your account handle a 200+ pip "interim" loss?
  • #11,427
  • Apr 27, 2007 12:28am Apr 27, 2007 12:28am
Quoting snowman
I don't know how you guys feel about this but It seems that as long as you're willing to accept a little additional drawdown, she always seems to come back.....
n a range bound market I don't use stops. Now that'll open a can of worms... again. I wrote this yesterday in my current journal:

"When trading a trending market I always use stops which I never change - but I still don't like them. When I'm trading a market which is range bound I don't use them. More on that here. I'm told it's a good read even if you don't share my view."

But this is dangerous ground for this thread and I can smell it going off topic very soon.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #11,428
  • Apr 27, 2007 12:38am Apr 27, 2007 12:38am
OK, let's not get off topic. For example for someone who has gone long at
1.9915 today. Don't you think that she's gonna get back to 2.000 again?
It may take a day or maybe two or three but she will hit 2.000 !!!!! I only trade using no more than 10percent of my account. I leave plenty of room for any drawdown.....
just trying to make a little on a lot.....
  • #11,429
  • Apr 27, 2007 12:48am Apr 27, 2007 12:48am
Quoting FXexpat

Are you actually making money at trading? Do you just flip a coin or do you (like the banks do) take into consideration technical facts like fibo retracements? Do you ignore interest rate decisions or poor NFP results because you believe they are illogical and they have no real bearing as the market will go wherever it wants to?

Are you serious?
I'm very serious. I do make money trading and I am a technical trader. Think about this. Are fibo retracements logical? Can we explain them mathematically? NO we can't, fibo retracements are not logical. Sometimes the market retraces 68%, sometimes 38%. What determines how much it will retrace? Market sentament.

I do ignore interest rate decisions, they are just decisions that a bunch of old men made somewhere far away, and I do ignore poor NFP results because they're just numbers on a piece of paper. To be honest I'm not really interested in anything because my system does my trading...but my system is interested in when the price and momentum change significantly in relatively the same period. Also known as a major trend change. I couldn't care less if this trend is logical or not, because if it's a major trend change then the market sentiment is behind it.
  • #11,430
  • Apr 27, 2007 12:55am Apr 27, 2007 12:55am
Quoting aicccia
I'm very serious. I do make money trading and I am a technical trader. Think about this. Are fibo retracements logical? Can we explain them mathematically? NO we can't, fibo retracements are not logical. Sometimes the market retraces 68%, sometimes 38%. What determines how much it will retrace? Market sentament.

I do ignore interest rate decisions, they are just decisions that a bunch of old men made somewhere far away, and I do ignore poor NFP results because they're just numbers on a piece of paper. To be honest I'm not really interested in anything because my system does my trading...but my system is interested in when the price and momentum change significantly in relatively the same period. Also known as a major trend change. I couldn't care less if this trend is logical or not, because if it's a major trend change then the market sentiment is behind it.
Looks like market wants to test next fibo level.
  • #11,431
  • Apr 27, 2007 1:05am Apr 27, 2007 1:05am
how low can cable go today?
  • #11,432
  • Apr 27, 2007 1:11am Apr 27, 2007 1:11am
I guess most of us here in this forum are a bunch of newbies when it comes to forex trading. The real money-makers (expert traders) will not join a forum - and if they do join a forum, they will not post or give free advice. Would a doctor give free consultations for patients? I doubt it.
I think that anyone who joins a forex forum, is looking for ways to make money, or is looking for some insight of where the market is going. The forex experrts are already making money and dont have time to join or post in a forum.
  • #11,433
  • Apr 27, 2007 1:24am Apr 27, 2007 1:24am
Quoting ashlee_17
I guess most of us here in this forum are a bunch of newbies when it comes to forex trading. The real money-makers (expert traders) will not join a forum - and if they do join a forum, they will not post or give free advice. Would a doctor give free consultations for patients? I doubt it.
I think that anyone who joins a forex forum, is looking for ways to make money, or is looking for some insight of where the market is going. The forex experrts are already making money and dont have time to join or post in a forum.
Or they surf around out of of boredom.
  • #11,434
  • Apr 27, 2007 1:29am Apr 27, 2007 1:29am
yeah like me
  • #11,435
  • Apr 27, 2007 1:38am Apr 27, 2007 1:38am
I'm sorry but I disagree with you. I know a number of professional traders who make tons of money and just like helping newbie's out. As a matter of fact, they enjoy the comraderie that forums can bring. Especially trading these "early morning" sessions....
just trying to make a little on a lot.....
  • #11,436
  • Apr 27, 2007 1:40am Apr 27, 2007 1:40am
First attempt on breaking the .9865 fibo support line.
  • #11,437
  • Apr 27, 2007 1:43am Apr 27, 2007 1:43am
Quoting ashlee_17
I guess most of us here in this forum are a bunch of newbies when it comes to forex trading. The real money-makers (expert traders) will not join a forum - and if they do join a forum, they will not post or give free advice. Would a doctor give free consultations for patients? I doubt it.
I think that anyone who joins a forex forum, is looking for ways to make money, or is looking for some insight of where the market is going. The forex experrts are already making money and dont have time to join or post in a forum.

Ashley:

See

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...31#post1425831
  • #11,438
  • Edited 2:08am Apr 27, 2007 1:45am | Edited 2:08am
So, what is the trend now?
GBPUSD bullish? or bearish?

Place your bets!

I heard HenryCarol (who is he?) was shorting GBPUSD every 100 pips since 1.9600... Perhaps he can now breathe easily or did he closed them for a huge loss?

Something to ponder:
Check out the three European Currencies: EUR, GBP and CHF against each other. and CHF vs USD:
EURCHF is still holding the line neither bearish nor bullish.
GBPCHF is dropping suggesting bearish run.
USDCHF is bullish suggesting USD strength.

Conclusion:
EUR and CHF is at the same strength and is weakening vs USD at almost the same rate.
GBP is weakening at a far faster rate (as seen with GBPCHF and EURGBP).
  • #11,439
  • Apr 27, 2007 2:02am Apr 27, 2007 2:02am
Quoting BurgerKing
So, what is the trend now?
GBPUSD bullish? or bearish?

Place your bets!
IMHO for short terms is bearish.. but if u draw a paralel trend line.. u can see that now is a good time for a dip fishing..
  • #11,440
  • Apr 27, 2007 2:16am Apr 27, 2007 2:16am
Quoting dd33
IMHO for short terms is bearish.. but if u draw a paralel trend line.. u can see that now is a good time for a dip fishing..
But keeping still watchfull eye. it might drop below it this time. theres a lot of tension
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