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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #11,401
  • Apr 26, 2007 6:30pm Apr 26, 2007 6:30pm
Quoting Warper
Igrok tell me this...

Imagine two countries starting right now, country A and B.

They put their fresh currencys on open market but they cut all the information about their economy.

The chart.. starts with a horizontal line.. and for argumentation sake, some ppl start to buy and some indicator says the pair is overbought, the ppl start to sell until the 382 rectraction or until the old low (the start).

What does this means? This means that without info, this two currencies will be in a 100 pip range forever even that one of that countries have Oil, Diamonds, Gold, Best Cars in the World, Best Tech in the World, and the other country is a desert.

Or better.. the currency who got bought first, keeps retracing only to fibs or relative recent lows and gets higher forever but this country is the desertic one.

Does this situation makes sense?
1. The market is not driven by the economies. It's driven by the laws of supply and demand which is based on traders' sentiment.
2. The most challenging thing I have ever experienced in relation to the market was teachnig my students to see the obvious. My 14 years trading experience tells me that for as long as a particular formation is in place and not violated the market will behave as prescribed.
  • #11,402
  • Apr 26, 2007 6:56pm Apr 26, 2007 6:56pm
Cable is glued in the 1.9900-1.9910 in the last couple of hours
  • #11,403
  • Apr 26, 2007 7:11pm Apr 26, 2007 7:11pm
Quoting dobbie11
3. Knowing cable we should look for a sidewides move again ranging from 1.9000 to 2.0030
Tell me this is a typo
  • #11,404
  • Apr 26, 2007 7:18pm Apr 26, 2007 7:18pm
Quoting pino2
Cable is glued in the 1.9900-1.9910 in the last couple of hours
2 couples of 4hr candles
  • #11,405
  • Apr 26, 2007 7:39pm Apr 26, 2007 7:39pm
Quoting cesarnc
Tell me this is a typo
yes oops sideways
  • #11,406
  • Edited 8:26pm Apr 26, 2007 7:44pm | Edited 8:26pm
Quoting dobbie11
yes oops sideways
I thought he was referring to the "1.9000". That's quite a range!
  • #11,407
  • Apr 26, 2007 7:50pm Apr 26, 2007 7:50pm
Quoting rdrainey
I thought he was referring to the "1.9000". That quite a range!
Yes sorry 1.9900 to 2.0030 . Guess I need to read the whole line uh?
  • #11,408
  • Apr 26, 2007 7:58pm Apr 26, 2007 7:58pm
Quoting dobbie11
Yes sorry 1.9900 to 2.0030 . Guess I need to read the whole line uh?
typo for typo, please put 2.0300 there
  • #11,409
  • Apr 26, 2007 8:09pm Apr 26, 2007 8:09pm
Quoting cesarnc
typo for typo, please put 2.0300 there
No Typo their 20300 ??? that is 300 pips. Range between 1.9900 to 2.0030 ( which is the 78.6 fib retracement for this move, well 2.0023 ). Now you have 2 dragonfly dojis on the hourly chart. lets see if cable listens to the rules ..... I am long from 1.9888 first target 1.9930 and then 1.9950
  • #11,410
  • Apr 26, 2007 8:31pm Apr 26, 2007 8:31pm
Well, another positve divergence forming on the hourly chart. Time to go up
  • #11,411
  • Apr 26, 2007 8:31pm Apr 26, 2007 8:31pm
Cable was going crazy yesterday,,, I wonder where is the next strong support for the cable today that can hold it from going furhter down..??? Anyone...
  • #11,412
  • Apr 26, 2007 8:49pm Apr 26, 2007 8:49pm
Refer to the attachment. The downwards movement from 2.0133 is in three waves which is clearly corrective.. Expect cable to head for 1.9950 - 1.9970 range. If the upward movement is in 5 waves, expect cable to register a new high.. If its just an ABC, a continuation of the previous downtrend should occur..
Attached Image
  • #11,413
  • Apr 26, 2007 9:06pm Apr 26, 2007 9:06pm
Quoting ShahJB
Refer to the attachment. The downwards movement from 2.0133 is in three waves which is clearly corrective.. Expect cable to head for 1.9950 - 1.9970 range. If the upward movement is in 5 waves, expect cable to register a new high.. If its just an ABC, a continuation of the previous downtrend should occur..
So, you are saying that the cable has already reached the bottom,,, and now it is time to go up to 9950 - 9970 ?
  • #11,414
  • Apr 26, 2007 9:15pm Apr 26, 2007 9:15pm
Quoting Aristo
So, you are saying that the cable has already reached the bottom,,, and now it is time to go up to 9950 - 9970 ?
Yup... that's right. Even if a new low is registered, it should be at 1.9985, in which AB = CD (the correction from 2.0133).

Based on my fib projection of the downwards movement yesterday, it has come to an end and a rally upwards should follow through. Whether it's an impulsive or corrective rally, let's just wait for it to unfold.
  • #11,415
  • Apr 26, 2007 9:38pm Apr 26, 2007 9:38pm
I don't like the price action at all on either GBP or EUR. Double and triple tops on multiple time frames for both currencies + a lot of speculation and uncertainty. So-o-o-o-o, I exited my GBP/USD trade for +18 pips profit.

The sequal to "I don't have to take this trade" (See Post #10994) is "I don't have to stay in this trade."

I'm not 'fib'bing.
  • #11,416
  • Apr 26, 2007 9:44pm Apr 26, 2007 9:44pm
1.9900 seems good. watch for 1.9950 2.0000
  • #11,417
  • Apr 26, 2007 10:23pm Apr 26, 2007 10:23pm
Quoting ShahJB
Yup... that's right. Even if a new low is registered, it should be at 1.9985, in which AB = CD (the correction from 2.0133).

Based on my fib projection of the downwards movement yesterday, it has come to an end and a rally upwards should follow through. Whether it's an impulsive or corrective rally, let's just wait for it to unfold.
Everyone has a some what different out look at Wave counts, of course depending on what time frame you choose to look at. Here is my out look on the wave count. Wave " A " was a Flat, while B was a Triangle and Wave C looks like a Zig Zag Could be forming, could be. I still believe their is further correction to come, after a re-tracement is made, but a lot will depend on the US news. This correction has yet to meet the 38.2 fib re-tracement which is what is need for a true correction. Or is this just simple re-tracement for a much larger wave 3 of this wave 5. Only time will tell.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable.jpg Size: 38 KB
  • #11,418
  • Apr 26, 2007 11:11pm Apr 26, 2007 11:11pm
wow... seems like a lot of "hot" arguments happening yesterday on late europe - american session. If the arguments is still unsettled, is there any possibilities that this will once again going with Why oh Why's way. Just a suggestion out of nowhere.

Too bad i missed all the actions yesterday since its nite time in asia. Looking for a good time to jump in for bottom fishing.
  • #11,419
  • Apr 26, 2007 11:45pm Apr 26, 2007 11:45pm
Quoting Igrok
I have already posted my technical view several times on this forum and even in this very thread. I'm afraid you don't need to worry about 2009. Fundamentally opinionated traders don't usually last that long.
Totally agree. It's only useful to consider fundamentals when the trade is going to last weeks and months. Anything shorter is pure technicals.
  • #11,420
  • Apr 26, 2007 11:48pm Apr 26, 2007 11:48pm
Quoting FXexpat
However, facts are facts and BOE will raise rates and Fed won't. Therefore, short to medium term for this pair in my opinion is long. The immediate trend is harder to read. Logic tells me long, yet uncertainty amongst experienced guys like you makes me nervous. Therefore, I think I'll wait until next week to assess the situation.
Facts and logic have nothing to do with being right in the forex market. The market is rarely logical and there's no such thing as a Fact in a sea of 1.9 trillion dollars a day of liquidity. The price will go wherever trader sentiment decides it will go.

From your posts it seems you getting very emotionally attached to the market, just a warning, that's not so good. You say you only trade what you see in front of you. Well then disregarding possible future fundamentals which are not in front of you, does the price still have a bullish look?
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