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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #11,381
  • Apr 26, 2007 3:19pm Apr 26, 2007 3:19pm
Quoting FXexpat
I'm sorry, who are you again?
bravado <-me
 FXexpat <-you

---

market is inactive. be back in a while. i hadn't traded in almost 3 weeks. bored as ever. waiting to see if cable is ranging. with bias to short.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #11,382
  • Apr 26, 2007 3:20pm Apr 26, 2007 3:20pm
Quoting cesarnc
I'm not worried...

I just want to understand WHERE IS THIS FREAKING PAIR GOING TO NEXT

From all possible nasty behavior I know in this market, this is definitely the nastiest. A 150 push and the players simply vanish
it's been nasty since last week.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #11,383
  • Apr 26, 2007 3:47pm Apr 26, 2007 3:47pm
Quoting FXexpat
I beg to differ.

FACT - UK will hike rates at least twice if not more in the next 6 to 9 months.

At the present time, it would seem likely that US rates will not be hiked.

What is the point of you scaremongering? Do you consider yourself some sort of forex wunderkind? To listen to you, you seem to be able to see into the near future and it seems that in your opinion technical\fundamental analysis does not count for anything at the moment.

For me, the current trend for Cable FX trading (apart from strange behaviour days like today) is in fact primarily fundamentals based with the need for a keen observation on the technical aspects of the daily trend and associated ranges.

Unfortunately for me, on the advice of others who seem to worship you on this forum I bought and then tried to read your mangled syntax book. Apart from your ability to state the bleeding obvious in an extremely laboured way, I was not impressed and I believe a week reading through the wealth of knowledgeable posts here would be time better spent.

Traders need to look at the market each day and judge their trades on a wide range of market factors. Sweeping trend statements such as yours (my own are always firmly tongue in cheek by the way) do not help anyone.

To make the statement that 1.4 is achievable before 2.03 is a wild, arrogant and most unhelpful observation. If you really believe this to be the case then tell us why you think this will happen. Oh mighty GURU!!!!!!!!!!!
1. It seems to me that I have already overlasted in this business most of the traders like you are and I'm going to keep it this way in the future. I bet you will not survive for long in this business if don't change a habit of arguing about opinions.
2. My opinion is legit as yours and only the future will show who was right or wrong. Besides it's not baseless.
3. Cable has been trading in the range between 2.0100 - 1.0350 for the last 26 years and coming back to 1.4000 shoulnd't be out of the ordinary.
4. Interest rates differential might or might not be important. Usually the market does what it is supposed to do regardless of fundamentals. There is always a fundamental explanation comes after the market makes any reasonable technical move. In our case something like another war with Iran may quickly negate all other reasons. It's just an example. If not war it might be something else.
5. Technically Cable looks toppish at the momement. Especially after completing the channel last week. And not just cable but GBP/JPY as well. EUR/USD and USD/CHF also made quite technical extremes just recently. There is a broadening triangle on montly building for the last few years on Cable and this is obviously a reversal formation. I'm expecting a break to occur in 2008-9 and the measured objective target for this pattern just comes to around 1.4000 level.
  • #11,384
  • Apr 26, 2007 3:49pm Apr 26, 2007 3:49pm
Quoting bravado
bravado <-me
 FXexpat <-you

LOL

Dr. Freud might have something to comment about your post
  • #11,385
  • Apr 26, 2007 3:59pm Apr 26, 2007 3:59pm
Expectations that the GDP will come out weeker than expected (around 1.5%) if that happen we may see the Cable touching 2.0000 again
I am long at 1.9910 w/ -25 SL.

==============================
  • #11,386
  • Apr 26, 2007 4:01pm Apr 26, 2007 4:01pm
Quoting Igrok
1. It seems to me that I have already overlasted in this business most of the traders like you are and I'm going to keep it this way in the future. I bet you will not survive for long in this business if don't change a habit of arguing about opinions.
2. My opinion is legit as yours and only the future will show who was right or wrong. Besides it's not baseless.
3. Cable has been trading in the range between 2.0100 - 1.0350 for the last 26 years and coming back to 1.4000 shoulnd't be out of the ordinary.
4. Interest rates differential might or might not be important. Usually the market does what it is supposed to do regardless of fundamentals. There is always a fundamental explanation comes after the market makes any reasonable technical move. In our case something like another war with Iran may quickly negate all other reasons. It's just an example. If not war it might be something else.
5. Technically Cable looks toppish at the momement. Especially after completing the channel last week. And not just cable but GBP/JPY as well. EUR/USD and USD/CHF also made quite technical extremes just recently. There is a broadening triangle on montly building for the last few years on Cable and this is obviously a reversal formation. I'm expecting a break to occur in 2008-9 and the measured objective target for this pattern just comes to around 1.4000 level.
You see. That wasn't hard hard now was it.

When you put your mind to it you can join up the dots and make sense of your utterences.

2008-9 prediction. WOW - way to go.
  • #11,387
  • Apr 26, 2007 4:02pm Apr 26, 2007 4:02pm
Quoting WTB
LOL

Dr. Freud might have something to comment about your post
What are you, some sort of affiliate reseller for Igrok's book?
  • #11,388
  • Apr 26, 2007 4:06pm Apr 26, 2007 4:06pm
Considering that the overall consumer sentiment is dollar negative both economically and as regards the Fed interest rate outlook, I don't think
todays dollar buying vs. EUR and GBP was based on the fundamentals.

Rather, it may have been a combination of profit taking, stop hunting, herd following, and the mysterious minds and tactics of the smart money. I wouldn't even call it a correction... but a very temporary combination of things.

I did not take a short because there was no way of telling how far this (what I consider temporary) drop would go.

Negative bias on the dollar should be verified at 10:00 PM tomorrow by the Michigan Consumer Sentiment numbers which I expect to be lower in April.

Though I never discuss my trades, it may be helpful to know that I've taken a long position at 1.9890.

Anyone who disagrees... be careful! May the better judgment win.
  • #11,389
  • Apr 26, 2007 4:11pm Apr 26, 2007 4:11pm
Quoting FXexpat
You see. That wasn't hard hard now was it.

When you put your mind to it you can join up the dots and make sense of your utterences.

2008-9 prediction. WOW - way to go.
I have already posted my technical view several times on this forum and even in this very thread. I'm afraid you don't need to worry about 2009. Fundamentally opinionated traders don't usually last that long.
  • #11,390
  • Apr 26, 2007 4:12pm Apr 26, 2007 4:12pm
Good Day

i think 1.9910 a good position to buy and if it brake 1.9951 its targeting 2.0012 then 2.0027

but we ve to take care from this number 1.9895 ... which is sign to change to sell
  • #11,391
  • Apr 26, 2007 4:23pm Apr 26, 2007 4:23pm
Quoting cesarnc
I'm not worried...

I just want to understand WHERE IS THIS FREAKING PAIR GOING TO NEXT

From all possible nasty behavior I know in this market, this is definitely the nastiest. A 150 push and the players simply vanish
I pay some attention to fibs and pivots but prefer trading what I see. I like following the trend and paying relevant attention to the important fundamentals.
Having read your posts with interest I note that you place some store by the $ index and carry trade implications. I am not qualified to assess the affects these may have had today, but I suspect they contributed in some way. Today was strange, a non news day which in my mind over reacted in an almost perverse way. i.e. against all indicated trends and contra to a melange of unimportant positive and negative Cable news. However, facts are facts and BOE will raise rates and Fed won't. Therefore, short to medium term for this pair in my opinion is long. The immediate trend is harder to read. Logic tells me long, yet uncertainty amongst experienced guys like you makes me nervous. Therefore, I think I'll wait until next week to assess the situation.
  • #11,392
  • Apr 26, 2007 4:26pm Apr 26, 2007 4:26pm
Quoting Igrok
4. Interest rates differential might or might not be important. Usually the market does what it is supposed to do regardless of fundamentals*. There is always a fundamental explanation comes after the market makes any reasonable technical move. In our case something like another war with Iran may quickly negate all other reasons. It's just an example. If not war it might be something else.
5. Technically Cable looks toppish at the momement.** Especially after completing the channel last week. And not just cable but GBP/JPY as well. EUR/USD and USD/CHF also made quite technical extremes just recently. There is a broadening triangle on montly building for the last few years on Cable and this is obviously a reversal formation. I'm expecting a break to occur in 2008-9 and the measured objective target for this pattern just comes to around 1.4000 level.
* I BEG YOUR FREAKING PARDON? Regardless of fundamentals? REGARDLESS OF FUNDAMENTALS???? So what? King is going to issue an order for BOE to DUMP POUNDS because of technical B.S on the MT4 in HIS LAPTOP?

** I BEG YOUR FREAKING PARDON? Cable toppish? CABLE TOPPISH? Then entire freaking Earth is printing lifetime highs agains the dollar for weeks!!!

One corrective day with 150 pips on Cable, Euro barely below 1.36 (SUPER HIGH LEVEL), USD-index still trying to "stay away from the light" while in life-support and MAJOR MASSIVE HUUUUGEEEE reversal is called HERE? What? next GB CPI is coming -4%? May NFP coming 500K? China will start playing by the rules in June?

I'm back posting here when this thread gets back to reason... I've made up my mind and have my scenarios to go along with. Good luck here
  • #11,393
  • Apr 26, 2007 4:34pm Apr 26, 2007 4:34pm
Quoting FXexpat
I pay some attention to fibs and pivots but prefer trading what I see. I like following the trend and paying relevant attention to the important fundamentals.
Having read your posts with interest I note that you place some store by the $ index and carry trade implications. I am not qualified to assess the affects these may have had today, but I suspect they contributed in some way. Today was strange, a non news day which in my mind over reacted in an almost perverse way. i.e. against all indicated trends and contra to a melange of unimportant positive and negative Cable news. However, facts are facts and BOE will raise rates and Fed won't. Therefore, short to medium term for this pair in my opinion is long. The immediate trend is harder to read. Logic tells me long, yet uncertainty amongst experienced guys like you makes me nervous. Therefore, I think I'll wait until next week to assess the situation.
Nothing like some hours at the supermarket... Beer's on the ice...

Today I was caught by surprise and for the first time I didn't let panic drive my actions.... The trend is sovereign. Not breaching 9900 is bullish. Not breaching 9800 is bullish. Not breaching 9700 is bullish. But I don't see cable going that far low. If market is in profit taking apetite, so be it. We gotta roll with the punch. I was one of the few (or the only, I don't recall) here calling for 2.0 shortly and more of that, that 2.0 will become daily business for us here, instead of a distant, unreachable dream. It came in days, rather than weeks as I thought.

And I tell you more, BOE raising 0.25% is consensus and 0.5% is said to be more likely than no-hike riight now, although most consider that 0.5% will be split in two. Cable is trading 2.0200 sooner than we think here... There is no major sistemic crisis driving this move.

Should Cable not retrace today's move, 9800 is on the cards for tomorrow, and that will be it.

I'm a bottom fisher all the way to hell if I have to.
  • #11,394
  • Apr 26, 2007 4:47pm Apr 26, 2007 4:47pm
Quoting cesarnc
Nothing like some hours at the supermarket... Beer's on the ice...

Today I was caught by surprise and for the first time I didn't let panic drive my actions.... The trend is sovereign. Not breaching 9900 is bullish. Not breaching 9800 is bullish. Not breaching 9700 is bullish. But I don't see cable going that far low. If market is in profit taking apetite, so be it. We gotta roll with the punch. I was one of the few (or the only, I don't recall) here calling for 2.0 shortly and more of that, that 2.0 will become daily business for us here, instead of a distant, unreachable dream. It came in days, rather than weeks as I thought.

And I tell you more, BOE raising 0.25% is consensus and 0.5% is said to be more likely than no-hike riight now, although most consider that 0.5% will be split in two. Cable is trading 2.0200 sooner than we think here... There is no major sistemic crisis driving this move.

Should Cable not retrace today's move, 9800 is on the cards for tomorrow, and that will be it.

I'm a bottom fisher all the way to hell if I have to.
My thoughts exactly - I thought about scanning for peaks and troughs but decided to take a rest instead. Hope you land a few tomorrow. Time for zzzzzzzzzs
  • #11,395
  • Edited 5:12pm Apr 26, 2007 4:49pm | Edited 5:12pm
Quoting cesarnc
* I BEG YOUR FREAKING PARDON? Regardless of fundamentals? REGARDLESS OF FUNDAMENTALS???? So what? King is going to issue an order for BOE to DUMP POUNDS because of technical B.S on the MT4 in HIS LAPTOP?

** I BEG YOUR FREAKING PARDON? Cable toppish? CABLE TOPPISH? Then entire freaking Earth is printing lifetime highs agains the dollar for weeks!!!

One corrective day with 150 pips on Cable, Euro barely below 1.36 (SUPER HIGH LEVEL), USD-index still trying to "stay away from the light" while in life-support and MAJOR MASSIVE HUUUUGEEEE reversal is called HERE? What? next GB CPI is coming -4%? May NFP coming 500K? China will start playing by the rules in June?

I'm back posting here when this thread gets back to reason... I've made up my mind and have my scenarios to go along with. Good luck here
1. First TA basic principal of major three says "market discounts everything". Think about it a bit.
2. I have been calling for cable reaching these levels before starting a reversal for months. First time I posted in on my amazon blog at the end of last year.
3. The EUR/USD still has some potential on the upside. It might be delayed though to give Cable an opportunity to get to 1.93 first. But the major top on the EUR/USD is very likely to be formed below 1.40 and perhaps even below 1.38.
4. Being in disagreement is normal among traders. In fact it's much better to be disagreed than agreed with. Contrarians rule the market and the crowd pays them all the time.
  • #11,396
  • Apr 26, 2007 5:52pm Apr 26, 2007 5:52pm
I believe there is potential for a possible drop back to 1.9600 levels before resuming up move.

Just for thoughts

Look at your charts and most people believe this up trend started on 5th March, but check your chart on a daily scale and an uptrend starts April 2003 (chart doesnt go any further back so may be longer!) This points a pullback is possible to 1.95/96 area.

Key areas for me now are 1.9890 cable and 1.3580 in Euro, price breach these and a bout of more selling is probably on the cards
  • #11,397
  • Apr 26, 2007 5:55pm Apr 26, 2007 5:55pm
Right !! Retrace today only to the first fib line barely which gives higher probability of more down swing coming !!!

Come on cesar... this can't be too much surprise to you... I even put my chart up this morning... we're going for the second fib line !!!
  • #11,398
  • Apr 26, 2007 5:59pm Apr 26, 2007 5:59pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Right !! Retrace today only to the first fib line barely which gives higher probability of more down swing coming !!!

Come on cesar... this can't be too much surprise to you... I even put my chart up this morning... we're going for the second fib line !!!
Most likely, I give you that. And that will be it...
  • #11,399
  • Apr 26, 2007 6:19pm Apr 26, 2007 6:19pm
Quoting cesarnc
I'm a bottom fisher all the way to hell if I have to.
I dont know what to say, but only... thanks.

Despite my good profit since my beginning, i dont have any problem to say that im a newbie and your conviction on this, gives me motivation to stay with my initial analysis, long of course.

I didnt enter long when above 2.0000... because i predicted a little bit this chicken profit takers short suicidals, but now... im seeing cheap money that later i will sell to Igrok as expensive as i can.

Igrok tell me this...

Imagine two countries starting right now, country A and B.

They put their fresh currencys on open market but they cut all the information about their economy.

The chart.. starts with a horizontal line.. and for argumentation sake, some ppl start to buy and some indicator says the pair is overbought, the ppl start to sell until the 382 rectraction or until the old low (the start).

What does this means? This means that without info, this two currencies will be in a 100 pip range forever even that one of that countries have Oil, Diamonds, Gold, Best Cars in the World, Best Tech in the World, and the other country is a desert.

Or better.. the currency who got bought first, keeps retracing only to fibs or relative recent lows and gets higher forever but this country is the desertic one.

Does this situation makes sense?

Note that i dont despise any way of trading, i use all the info that i can get. The problem is that if the technical guys know a little bit of what is happening in the real world, all of us would never be surprised by the market.

As i said in another post, you guys short a strong pair and get stoppet out in many trades because its crazy to find targets in a currency that can rebound in a flash. And us who get surprised get stopped out sometimes with disbelief in ppl that is going against all the up arrows.
  • #11,400
  • Apr 26, 2007 6:28pm Apr 26, 2007 6:28pm
Hello folks, it has been a long time since I have been here and just reading some of your post. This is what I see. First we are in Wave 5 of this up trend, Being in wave 3 of wave 5. In this corrective move we have seen a Flat completing wave A and a Traingle completing wave B ( with a double Top ). Now in wave C , which has just completed wave 3. Knowing cable we should look for a sidewides move again ranging from 1.9000 to 2.0030 and then down to complete Wave C. One thing about cable is it Loves to take out all the Fib levels and just passing the 23.6 keeps the door open for the 38.2 level down. I be looking to sell again between 1.9950 & 2.0030. for the move down to 1.9750 - 1.9700. Good Luck and happy pippin.....
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