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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #714,201
  • Dec 14, 2022 1:59am Dec 14, 2022 1:59am
Quoting Moty
First trade in the new strategy Scalping for 10 pips r/w Don't worry, i will not publish everything I will update every 5 trades {image}
Happy to see stop losses…. Success aMoty…
Extreme gut feeling trader
  • #714,202
  • Dec 14, 2022 2:01am Dec 14, 2022 2:01am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 50bps FED DEC FOmc.png Size: 9 KB


Actual FED rate: 4%
Short Term Yield (US02Y): 4.178%
Long Term Yield(US10Y):3.466%
Difference between LG Yield and Short Term Yield: ~ 0.7% (70bps)

So swap market had already priced in a majority of Fed pivot. So if 50bps is done by FEd tonight, we might not see an extended move (like 200pips+ upwards move). So, I'm expecting a move <120pips on the figure release('buy the rumor sell the fact' will TP).
Then, IMO more focus will be on the Statement, to get a view of FEB 1 FOMC's possible outcomes.

However, if 75bps is delivered, it is clear that the dovish disappointment will have a major impact. Then see y'all on board The Titanic.

All these are just some personal fundamental views, and could of course be wrong.

Stick to your plan, trade your setup and Follow the price as every piece of information is included in the price.
Trade well

-Fardeen
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #714,203
  • Dec 14, 2022 2:07am Dec 14, 2022 2:07am
Quoting Fardeen1209
{image} Actual FED rate: 4% Short Term Yield (US02Y): 4.178% Long Term Yield(US10Y):3.466% Difference between LG Yield and Short Term Yield: ~ 0.7% (70bps) So swap market had already priced in a majority of Fed pivot. So if 50bps is done by FEd tonight, we might not see an extended move (like 200pips+ upwards move). So, I'm expecting a move <120pips on the figure release('buy the rumor sell the fact' will TP). Then, IMO more focus will be on the Statement, to get a view of FEB 1 FOMC's possible outcomes. However, if 75bps is delivered, it is clear...
Typically 'a move is already in the current price' if it is expected, then why would the price drop 120 pips? Based on what you are saying, I would expect a move in the opposite direction.
  • #714,204
  • Dec 14, 2022 2:10am Dec 14, 2022 2:10am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Typically 'a move is already in the current price' if it is expected, then why would the price drop 120 pips? Based on what you are saying, I would expect a move in the opposite direction.
The initial impact maybe flat but the speech afterwards will be useful
Insane in the Brain..
  • #714,205
  • Dec 14, 2022 2:11am Dec 14, 2022 2:11am
Quoting BeeTogether
A flatline on M1 back to work until this wakes up {image}
USDX is flatlining also

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx.jpg Size: 78 KB
I am neither brave nor stupid...I am just a part time trader
  • #714,206
  • Dec 14, 2022 2:13am Dec 14, 2022 2:13am
Quoting Houtbay
Gbpusd retracing but trend remains up this morning
There is one candle in the 1 hr time frame about 21 candles back that is supporting the uptrend, then it is close to flipping down.
  • #714,207
  • Dec 14, 2022 2:14am Dec 14, 2022 2:14am
Quoting montygoldy
Thats spike down killed my longs … hit BE SL… entered again… this thing will go higher… targettiing 1.24
Still holding… hoping to see 1.24 before bears action..
Extreme gut feeling trader
  • #714,208
  • Dec 14, 2022 2:16am Dec 14, 2022 2:16am
Quoting BeeTogether
{quote} We’ve had some data like yesterdays US data which sent the pair up above 150 pips and some data last week too
The actual numbers yesterday came out 'as expected', no surprises. The market moved because of something other than the news, IMHO.
  • #714,209
  • Dec 14, 2022 2:21am Dec 14, 2022 2:21am
Cable missing puzzle at 1.2460
Peace Yo!
  • #714,210
  • Dec 14, 2022 2:26am Dec 14, 2022 2:26am
Quoting Moty
First trade in the new strategy Scalping for 10 pips r/w Don't worry, i will not publish everything I will update every 5 trades {image}
Stopped out
Took long
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_2022-12-14-10-26-08-239-edit_com.tradingview.tradingviewapp.jpg Size: 399 KB
yes yes yes
  • #714,211
  • Dec 14, 2022 2:30am Dec 14, 2022 2:30am
I have feeling that it will range between 1.2380 to 1.2340 till FMOC so nice few hours for scalpers if it ranges.
  • #714,212
  • Dec 14, 2022 2:33am Dec 14, 2022 2:33am
G/M, bullish dly candle y/day, but price @ the current p/back lo has retraced over 100 pips. Uk inflation data didn't move this market as much as u.s inflation data y/day! Main course later re the fed Fomc stuff.

1Hr below

...there is a repeating pattern of bullish hidden div on 1hr at the current dly lo and this may stay valid on any deeper drop so long as price stays above y/day's lo, and in such a case 2hr of the same may develop?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 19 KB
Trader with an Edge.
  • #714,213
  • Dec 14, 2022 2:38am Dec 14, 2022 2:38am
Quoting Milan
{quote} What will happen?
The world could end . Lol I have it as weekly resistance. Regards E
  • #714,214
  • Dec 14, 2022 2:41am Dec 14, 2022 2:41am
add sell = 1.2368
Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
  • #714,215
  • Dec 14, 2022 2:42am Dec 14, 2022 2:42am
Quoting Fawad12
I have feeling that it will range between 1.2380 to 1.2340 till FMOC so nice few hours for scalpers if it ranges.
I feel the same
10000% Wannabe . -$3000 & -$4000
Gold Recovery All Time Profit: -$3,961
  • #714,216
  • Edited 2:58am Dec 14, 2022 2:47am | Edited 2:58am
Quoting dantpm
{quote} Typically 'a move is already in the current price' if it is expected, then why would the price drop 120 pips? Based on what you are saying, I would expect a move in the opposite direction.
If 50 bps, Price will move up by less than 120pips. since a majority chance (~85%) has already been priced in the 50bps.

Since pivot is expected to come after 3-4 times 75bps FED hike tonight
Therefore, the rest smart money (the sure money will be long on XXX/USD or short on USD/XXX pairs, and the 75bps bets will close their orders= selling pressure on USD) will join the party on the data release, for a change in USD trend
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #714,217
  • Dec 14, 2022 2:48am Dec 14, 2022 2:48am
Dxy ripe for creating a new low or testing yesterday low..
Extreme gut feeling trader
  • #714,218
  • Dec 14, 2022 2:49am Dec 14, 2022 2:49am
...current state of 10/20/50 ema crosses over the t/f's, below

...bulls trying to get north of the 38.2% of the fall. If price does get north of it and the prev minor 1hr sw hi zone @ it; other than fibs and a prev 30min sw hi = prev res = pot res, looks like a pretty clear run to y/day's hi if tested?

1hr below
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #714,219
  • Dec 14, 2022 3:14am Dec 14, 2022 3:14am
short currently gbpjpy
  • #714,220
  • Dec 14, 2022 3:15am Dec 14, 2022 3:15am
...bulls currently struggling @ that 38.2% area mentioned in my post above. 4hr below shows the potential rbs that has held (for now?) and stopped the pullback from y/day's hi. It was that prev sw hi to 2344 (last week's hi.)

4hr below
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 14 KB
Trader with an Edge.
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