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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #711,221
  • Dec 3, 2022 1:11am Dec 3, 2022 1:11am
Quoting Moty
Unbelievable {image}
And what unbelievable here, what? explain me pls... it's was so obvious
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  • #711,222
  • Dec 3, 2022 1:48am Dec 3, 2022 1:48am
Quoting AlfieSolomon
{quote} Makes sense Bilal Bhai ? Does it make retail concepts valid? Whenever price breaks a level it creates FVG ,i think that's the reason behind the break and retest theory the price returns to the FVG created {image}
Thank you for asking the question because that will open a different perspective and enable learning for me too.

I feel to work the breakout and retest may not fit 100% here notice the red line is also a FVG, price has to stop right there once it is filled would be a good Retest and a confluence level Prev day / Month high as well, but price didn't stop there until it sweeps the prev H4 candle, we but can say it is a Fake out.

Notice how market maker adds their order for longs some one SL should be there, this is just a theory unless we see the real orders but thats how we have learnt over the experience market maker takes our prev lows and highs before moving to its direction i.e., following fundamentals, market has the capacity to deep retrace against the fundamentals too.

So trade what you see, it all game of probabilities, the more chances you keep the higher the probability to recover and successful based on method which gives good R:R,

Even 99% successful method can be fail too if its 1% loss bigger than its 99% gain.
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #711,223
  • Dec 3, 2022 4:33am Dec 3, 2022 4:33am
Quoting Bella.al
{quote} I just wanted to add some description about the trading journal above My Trading Journal at “Cable Update Thread” , Account Size and Lot Amount . My Starting trading account size was 5025 USD and my current static lot amount size is 0.10. This account is given to me by my parents as a gift to prove my self i can be a forex trader. I am doing LIVE trading since 29.09.2022 and the account is at 5955 USD as of 25.11.2022. I started running a LIVE journal using S/L and T/P since two weeks at “Cable Update Thread” Performance Link: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post14234236...
- Since i started recording my trades as a journal on "Cable Update thread" these are weekly figure and coming to end of the month

1. Week 1 = 130 Pips
2. Week 2 = 105 Pips
3. Week3 = -120 Pips
4. Week4 = Upcoming

I have been spending about 18 hours in front of Market and on developing my personal software for trading Bella's Blue currently at version 1.8

Books used for development
1. Wave Principal ( By Robert R Prechter )
2. Pivot Boss (By Frank O.Ochoa )
3. Gann Square of 9 (Mikula)

also since i spend upto 18 hours in development and looking at Tick by Tick data there are few things i have added my self due to experience such as "Bella's Support and Resistance", "Bella's Accelerator" ," Bella's Time Blocks" ," 0.37 Trailing" ...

Current List of Features in version 1.8

1. Daily,Weekly Pivots.
2. W.D Gann Support and Resistance
3.Bella's Support and Resistance
4.Bella's Accelerator ( Elliot wave style signals )
5. W.D Gann Date Forecasting
6.Bella's Order Forecasting
7.Price Retracement and Expansion Targets ( 3 Price Objectives )
8.Tight S/L (24 Pips )
9. Risk Reward : up-to 12.0
10. Bella's 0.37 Trailing..

Again i trade 0.10 Lots on a 5K account. "Trader Development" and i started trading LIVE since 29.09.2022

-bella
Goddess of Thunder..
  • #711,224
  • Dec 3, 2022 4:50am Dec 3, 2022 4:50am
Quoting Bella.al
{quote} - Since i started recording my trades as a journal on "Cable Update thread" these are weekly figure and coming to end of the month 1. Week 1 = 130 Pips 2. Week 2 = 105 Pips 3. Week3 = -120 Pips 4. Week4 = Upcoming I have been spending about 18 hours in front of Market and on developing my personal software for trading Bella's Blue currently at version 1.8 Books used for development 1. Wave Principal ( By Robert R Prechter ) 2. Pivot Boss (By Frank O.Ochoa ) 3. Gann Square of 9 (Mikula) also since i spend upto 18 hours in development and...
can you just upload a trade explorer instead? this saves you from typing this and proves what you are saying.
  • #711,225
  • Edited 6:12am Dec 3, 2022 5:48am | Edited 6:12am
Quoting sharingan9
{quote} Reading the market may be simple for some but difficult for others. So you can't give an otherwise rudimentary disingenuous statement such as "trading is simple" because not everyone finds trading to be simple. In fact as you point out, most traders fail to read the markets correctly despite years of study which indicates that trading is difficult for many especially when you consider even self proclaimed masters of trading like yourself even admit to still losing trades. Also most proficient traders did not start out that way and they struggle...
in my original post I was talking about reading the market, but my reply to one of the comments I did ask if "trading is simple" when I should have said "reading is simple" because we continued talking about reading the market, so, I apologies for that and thank you for bringing that up.

but, do you agree with me that most traders start learning trading through strategies without understanding the market basics ?
if they spent the same amount of time before opening real accounts learning market structure, direction, S&R .. etc, it would be much more better for them to understand their strategies faster and avoid repeating the same mistakes for years.

reading the market is simple but trading involve fear/greed and need practice to get over these factors so you can trade what you read, and mistakes happen to best of traders from time to time but never repeatable mistakes.

cheers,
"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
  • #711,226
  • Dec 3, 2022 7:19am Dec 3, 2022 7:19am
Quoting ninner
This market may be getting tired. Its come a long ways already!!!
why do you think its come a long way. dollar was bought for 9 months continuous. isn't that a long way. bitcoin is sold for 13 months now w/o even a 5000 dollar rebound. long way? where ppl might be trapped now is thinking usdjpy bottomed and pound, euro topped. the only way we go out of recession is us exporters start making profits again bcoz of weaker dollar
  • #711,227
  • Dec 3, 2022 7:41am Dec 3, 2022 7:41am
Weekly FIbonacci
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  • #711,228
  • Dec 3, 2022 7:52am Dec 3, 2022 7:52am
Quoting DmShka
{quote} And what unbelievable here, what? explain me pls... it's was so obvious {image}
nothing is obvious tell after the event, Did u trade it?
  • #711,229
  • Dec 3, 2022 8:10am Dec 3, 2022 8:10am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} And so it is. My 50% Fib retrace at 1.22866. I could look to take some buy trades off the table. Trade safe. Cheers. {image}
Hi Guys,
Very significant to me is a weekly close above my 2 year 50% Fib retrace at 1.22866. Price currently standing at 1.22909. If you have followed weekly candle closes as long as I have you will understand the significance of it. We have almost a full bodied weekly candle and this is very bullish in my opinion. I.o.w we closed almost at the top of the week. My future weekly pivot at 1.21655 ish certainly a magnetic draw line for retraces and I will monitor price action around this area for buy entries. My monthly res 1 at 1.2422 certainly becomes more attractive.
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Eu similar to Gu but lagging and an attractive target my 2 year 50% fib retrace at 1.09418 for December.
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UsdJpy which is my gauge to Usdx. Retraces towards my future weekly pivot at 135.928 ish an opportunity to get into short trades for a target of 132.4870.
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Have a great weekend and week Folks,
Cheers.
Trade to trade another day
  • #711,230
  • Dec 3, 2022 8:20am Dec 3, 2022 8:20am
Quoting Moty
I didn't understand There was that huge drop Is it was for nothing How is that it always turn around against me like today and yesterday? Unbelievable
It was the markets response to news. AI kicks in. Sometimes one gets the market wrong exactly to the second. Price goes in the opposite
direction. The trick here is don't trade at these moments. Making money by not trading is a good adage.
  • #711,231
  • Dec 3, 2022 9:34am Dec 3, 2022 9:34am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} . . . UsdJpy which is my gauge to Usdx. Retraces towards my future weekly pivot at 135.928 ish an opportunity to get into short trades for a target of 132.4870. {image}Have a great weekend and week Folks, Cheers.
Please can you kindly post a H4 chart for USDJPY?

I am getting ready to take buy trades around 133.33

Thanks.
  • #711,232
  • Dec 3, 2022 10:04am Dec 3, 2022 10:04am
Quoting Chancy
{quote} It was the markets response to news. AI kicks in. Sometimes one gets the market wrong exactly to the second. Price goes in the opposite direction. The trick here is don't trade at these moments. Making money by not trading is a good adage.

I for one love them. Any move right before the news usually gets reversed, so for me these are awesome indicators. Just before the US news came out the dollar took a dip to the bottom of the range in the smaller time frames. When this happens.. (or the top of the range) I always bet against the move. My impression is that folks who are more knowledgeable on what the news will be maneuver the price so that they can get the most bang for their buck. It also tends to offer a good place to put your stop loss, and the reward is usually pretty nice. Now if I can just find a good "news on chart" indicator. Or better yet one that marks the news, calculates the channel, and stacks the trades against that move with trailing stop losses.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #711,233
  • Dec 3, 2022 10:09am Dec 3, 2022 10:09am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Please can you kindly post a H4 chart for USDJPY? I am getting ready to take buy trades around 133.33 Thanks.
Sure Pipcenturion
4hr chart. Yes there will be a retrace. but I emphasize a retrace with current bearish momentum.

Cheers.
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Trade to trade another day
  • #711,234
  • Dec 3, 2022 10:12am Dec 3, 2022 10:12am
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Please can you kindly post a H4 chart for USDJPY? I am getting ready to take buy trades around 133.33 Thanks.
I think that will be a good trade. I am also going bullish this coming week and into the next. The smaller time frames show an unfinished 5 waves to the south of the chart. Once that is done though, I think we will take out the highs. FOMC on the 7th, then another couple of weeks of bullish energy before a January sell off. Crypto will also be on sale then IMO. 133 looks good for entry.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #711,235
  • Dec 3, 2022 10:37am Dec 3, 2022 10:37am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Thank you for asking the question because that will open a different perspective and enable learning for me too. I feel to work the breakout and retest may not fit 100% here notice the red line is also a FVG, price has to stop right there once it is filled would be a good Retest and a confluence level Prev day / Month high as well, but price didn't stop there until it sweeps the prev H4 candle, we but can say it is a Fake out. Notice how market maker adds their order for longs some one SL should be there, this is just a theory unless we...
but Bilal, why someone needs to look for a FvG if there is breakout strategy? I could argue that the reason it came back there was because of the BO/RT. I could also argue that maybe it was both?

with ict and his stuff im not just being a d*ck but ive been familiar with his teachings alot. Me and two of my other friends we went through with ict stuff for almost a year, everything. We have his mentorship over 12 months etc. all of it and i wouldnt say its super good and I havent found actual profitable trader that uses his stuff for longer than 6 months. I mean its not the worst either but we couldn’t be profitable with it. Ive always believed in Supply and Demand logic so that what I/my buddies use and we are always open to learn new things thats why we have the mentorship etc but couldn’t use it for long term profitability. I can on seek n destroy market model trade almost every swing but the same things might not work the other time with same model, so its super complex. And what we noticed is that alooot of the times when liquidity purges work on swings etc there is always BO/RT, Supply or Demand in the area - again, why complex with all this nonsense if old stuff still works. But again, we couldn’t do it maybe someone can open his TE and show that it actually works using only ict stuff and I would happy to learn.

thanks
How to succeed in zero sum game?
  • #711,236
  • Dec 3, 2022 11:07am Dec 3, 2022 11:07am
Quoting dempire1
{quote} but Bilal, why someone needs to look for a FvG if there is breakout strategy? I could argue that the reason it came back there was because of the BO/RT. I could also argue that maybe it was both? with ict and his stuff im not just being a d*ck but ive been familiar with his teachings alot. Me and two of my other friends we went through with ict stuff for almost a year, everything. We have his mentorship over 12 months etc. all of it and i wouldnt say its super good and I havent found actual profitable trader that uses his stuff for longer...
Thank you for sharing your opinion

Please trust that, the only thing make you save your equity is risk management, its is not ICT not supply and demand, elliot wave, wyckoff and we are all free to choose any method which we resonants with.

Yes, false break out and retest is an excellent setup to me in retail world but what are the precursor to the scenario, it is sweeping old high or lows or both tapping into a fvg and sweeping old highs. Or sweeping old highs and low and filling the fvg to the pip and reverse. No other method come close to it is what i feel and to you its all bullshit thats fine. No fuss we can always be respectful while keeping different views.

Since what is complex to you is simple to me

Well for the sake of argument trust me you cannot argue BO/RT to me because i can show you on the same chart it is not and why not this and why not that candle for entry and you wont be able to answer to my questions like i asked earlier on this thread and get my share of beating, which i responded head on though he knows about and why it but wouldn't share it, i am sure.

I dont need to convince you or anyone to learn ICT because to me it is the method for me, like any other person share his view, with full of indicators and analysis, i do mine when i wants to but if anyone have an issue with ICT, i cannot help him. Sorry.

Stay blessed.
Regards
Bilal
"Exchange of hands"
  • #711,237
  • Dec 3, 2022 12:00pm Dec 3, 2022 12:00pm
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Sure Pipcenturion 4hr chart. Yes there will be a retrace. but I emphasize a retrace with current bearish momentum. Cheers. {image}
Thanks a million sir.

I am most grateful.
  • #711,238
  • Edited 2:35pm Dec 3, 2022 2:14pm | Edited 2:35pm
MY PIC : GU M5

NF Yesterday !!!

They control the price very well.
-------------------

GU < 1.20549 :

1.23266..........................1.16440

I BELIEVE GU = 1.16490.
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  • #711,239
  • Dec 3, 2022 2:27pm Dec 3, 2022 2:27pm
Quoting pipcenturion
{quote} Please can you kindly post a H4 chart for USDJPY? I am getting ready to take buy trades around 133.33 Thanks.
why would you want to buy the USDJPY??? You want to lose more money???
  • #711,240
  • Edited 3:01pm Dec 3, 2022 2:39pm | Edited 3:01pm
Quoting Kimmymore
MY PIC : GU M5 NF Yesterday !!! They control the price very well. ------------------- GU < 1.20549 : 1.23266..........................1.16440 I BELIEVE GU = 1.16490. {image} {image} {image}

NEW MY IND :

Buy : Rsi > 30
Sell : Rsi < 70
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