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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #706,741
  • Nov 12, 2022 9:21am Nov 12, 2022 9:21am
GU - Next Week at-least 350 pips range to reach the Yearly Mid level:

Please bear my analysis as i dont find much to mark on charts while keeping it simple.
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #706,742
  • Nov 12, 2022 9:30am Nov 12, 2022 9:30am
Quoting bilal1947
GU - Next Week at-least 350 pips range to reach the Yearly Mid level: Please bear my analysis as i dont find much to mark on charts while keeping it simple. {image}
added a dummy weekly candle of next week on the chart, please do check your weekly chart to get the clarity.
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #706,743
  • Nov 12, 2022 10:04am Nov 12, 2022 10:04am
Stop Hunts:
If you don't believe in them that's fine and thank you for reading this far.

If you do believe in them and have a strategy for dealing with them, please share. DM if you wish.
  • #706,744
  • Edited Nov 13, 2022 9:27am Nov 12, 2022 10:19am | Edited Nov 13, 2022 9:27am
Quoting dantpm
Stop Hunts: If you don't believe in them that's fine and thank you for reading this far. If you do believe in them and have a strategy for dealing with them, please share. DM if you wish.
Market Maker's Concept:
Market Makers manipulate price and trap traders because it is the only way to make massive transactions at a current price level that is desired. “Stop Hunting” a long holder triggers a Sell order because you have to sell in order for you to get out of that trade. While “Stop Hunting” a short holder triggers a buy order because you have to buy in order for you to get out of that trade to protect your account.

thats how breakout traders and stops gets activated which gives MM positions gets in while stop hunting, if still order not enough they keep on grinding till is enough of the accumulation, still not enough will manipulate to wrong side (Turtle Soup as denote by Linda Bradford Raschke/Juda Swing by ICT) until get their fills at best prices only then will give final expansion.

Stophunt Mastery book by Forexia:
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post13604053
"Exchange of hands"
  • #706,745
  • Nov 12, 2022 10:27am Nov 12, 2022 10:27am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Stophunt Mastery book by Forexia https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post13604053
Thanks!
  • #706,746
  • Nov 12, 2022 11:22am Nov 12, 2022 11:22am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} added a dummy weekly candle of next week on the chart, please do check your weekly chart to get the clarity. {image}
This will mean 900+ pips range for this month... Though possible but quite unlikely... Recent months has recorded high or low of the months between 12 - 14 day of the month... Also noteworthy that most Repeated maximum monthly range is usually between 720 - 800 pips.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #706,747
  • Nov 12, 2022 12:00pm Nov 12, 2022 12:00pm
Looks scary as hell for bears at 1850, but I still think we will see 1645 during a correction...where new buying might occur. Might be wrong, of course. Long term, GU is a BUY until 1.30 or more.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #706,748
  • Nov 12, 2022 12:35pm Nov 12, 2022 12:35pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
Looks scary as hell for bears at 1850, but I still think we will see 1645 during a correction...where new buying might occur. Might be wrong, of course. Long term, GU is a BUY until 1.30 or more.
that would be awesome
  • #706,749
  • Nov 12, 2022 12:39pm Nov 12, 2022 12:39pm
Quoting Georginson
{quote} This will mean 900+ pips range for this month... Though possible but quite unlikely... Recent months has recorded high or low of the months between 12 - 14 day of the month... Also noteworthy that most Repeated maximum monthly range is usually between 720 - 800 pips.
Interesting thing is george...we have a low in place 1.03, the whole year has been down..we are approaching Christmas..pound generally bullish..how low do u think the pound can actually go? id actually think the probability to go higher is there..we are also seeing weakness in USD coupled with high interest rates..

which are now only starting to show up..in the chart
  • #706,750
  • Nov 12, 2022 12:41pm Nov 12, 2022 12:41pm
Quoting Georginson
{quote} This will mean 900+ pips range for this month... Though possible but quite unlikely... Recent months has recorded high or low of the months between 12 - 14 day of the month... Also noteworthy that most Repeated maximum monthly range is usually between 720 - 800 pips.
Hi Buddy !

Week after week when i see the market and try to connect the dots, with my limited fundamental understanding, i say to myself bilal this is v. tricky week, hopefully next one will be a straight forward , and on top our mind is such whatever we believe, will find numerous reason supporting that narrative.

what you are forecasted must be right, as you know you are the super computer to me.

look what i have found Open interest is decreasing while GU is going up means it should go bearish, while already the Monthly range is 134% i.e., 708 pips should reverse at a good resistance level.

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However, fundamentally Dollar has finally taken the hit after CPI nos improved and Fed may go for pivot, which will push Dollar down further, whereas for pound Bank of England indicating last week that Britain's economy was set to go into a two-year recession if interest rates continued to rise to combat inflation, so they also dovish. perhaps next interest rate raise will decide who is more dovish, till than what to do?

What i mark on my chart is how it looks as per TA for now, perhaps i may be brutally wrong, and that where Big thing which i wants to master irrespective of what ever happening fundamentally, politically because i may read them wrong several times, i must have a system which should be help me stay out of the wrong side or helps me to read the price by seeing the chart alone keeping me free from all these things.

The more i try to deep dive the more confusing it gets and blocked my bias to read the price because i am expecting some thing to happen and chart is showing something else which i am not willing to see tricky mind.

"Exchange of hands"
  • #706,751
  • Nov 12, 2022 12:57pm Nov 12, 2022 12:57pm
Quoting bilal1947
Thanks Wavegarrick for the valuable suggestion to use one entry at a time, it is easier on the heart and no need to show many pips, it doesnt matter. Summary of what i did yesterday on M1, thinking can i upscale it on H4 ? any suggestions, comments including negative having +ve spirits are welcome. {image}
As i know you my dear its not difficult for you i will obviously suggest you to drill this as soon as u can start
  • #706,752
  • Edited 1:38pm Nov 12, 2022 1:20pm | Edited 1:38pm
Quoting Georginson
{quote} This will mean 900+ pips range for this month... Though possible but quite unlikely... Recent months has recorded high or low of the months between 12 - 14 day of the month... Also noteworthy that most Repeated maximum monthly range is usually between 720 - 800 pips.
Personally, watching for a turnaround in the 1.18500 area, otherwise taking long if the area breaks north. Time will tell.
Worth noting is the move from the retrace at 1.17000 to 1.18500 on Friday was during the NY session mainly, with the Banking world closed in US and Canada. Thin market levels can be very unreliable.
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  • #706,753
  • Nov 12, 2022 2:16pm Nov 12, 2022 2:16pm
Unlike Swede I don’t believe that we are at the 5th wave just yet. So over time price should still move up, even after a possible regression towards a means. This is my two cents opinion.
  • #706,754
  • Nov 12, 2022 2:24pm Nov 12, 2022 2:24pm
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} added a dummy weekly candle of next week on the chart, please do check your weekly chart to get the clarity. {image}
Hmmm. I share your dummy candle idea. I think you may have just done some time traveling
  • #706,755
  • Nov 12, 2022 5:21pm Nov 12, 2022 5:21pm
Quoting Headland
{quote} Hi E. Thanks for your comments. Re your suggestion that I post when I am in a trade. Well, unless this is done at or about the time of entry (say withinn 5pips) it's just a retrospective and 'late call' which is understandably not liked on this thread, as we have seen. I do post retrospective set-ups as you have seen but these are only where there is educational value to them. I may have traded these, bottled out, or have missed them in real-time, it doesn't matter - they happened/developed. I am a scalper so most of my winning trades are...
Hi H , that was a long answer . And thank you for replying . Each to their own is what I say … as long as it works then that’s fine . And my way for me works but it took a few years to be able to sort it out and find my way of making money without to many losers . Regards E
  • #706,756
  • Edited 8:31pm Nov 12, 2022 8:14pm | Edited 8:31pm
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Hi Buddy ! Week after week when i see the market and try to connect the dots, with my limited fundamental understanding, i say to myself bilal this is v. tricky week, hopefully next one will be a straight forward , and on top our mind is such whatever we believe, will find numerous reason supporting that narrative. what you are forecasted must be right, as you know you are the super computer to me. look what i have found Open interest is decreasing while GU is going up means it should go bearish, while already the Monthly...
You are absolutely spot on Bilal and I must admit that your scalping skills have been top notch which is due to your reactionary methodologies instead of anticipatory approach. Finding a balance between Technical and Fundamental analysis is very important but technical shows the whole picture of what fundamentals is doing, in summary trade what you see is the main mantra.

Higher time frames and distance application works like wild fire regardless of what fundamentals is saying, no price ever goes in a straight line...

Major clue, the price has been making higher lows and higher highs since October 10... 1.14 to 1.09, 1.14 to 1.10, 1.16 to 1.11, 1.18 to 1.?? (Bias 1.14 minimum) before another rocket. As you can see from this equation that price goes up by 5 - 6 cents and retraced by 4 - 5 cents to gather fresh buying momentum.

The set breaker that can invalidate the bullish momentum is if 1.1133 breaks down, if it doesn't break, price will most likely attack 1.22 by or before year end.

Highest possible Rate this November is 1.1934 - 1.1955, and if it's to happen this week, that means

Possible high this week is 1.1940
Possible Low this Week is 1.1575

whichever way it moves, price will touch 1.1598 area this week.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #706,757
  • Nov 13, 2022 12:22am Nov 13, 2022 12:22am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} You are absolutely spot on Bilal and I must admit that your scalping skills have been top notch which is due to your reactionary methodologies instead of anticipatory approach. Finding a balance between Technical and Fundamental analysis is very important but technical shows the whole picture of what fundamentals is doing, in summary trade what you see is the main mantra. Higher time frames and distance application works like wild fire regardless of what fundamentals is saying, no price ever goes in a straight line... Major clue, the price...
Thank you for the kind words and appreciation made my day again

and it is so amazing how you see far sighted before even it happens, way ahead of time.

Best regards
bilal
"Exchange of hands"
  • #706,758
  • Nov 13, 2022 12:56am Nov 13, 2022 12:56am
Georginson in your view which is the more reliable higher time frame assess price from?
  • #706,759
  • Nov 13, 2022 1:16am Nov 13, 2022 1:16am
Quoting Houtbay
Georginson in your view which is the more reliable higher time frame assess price from?
From Monthly, Weekly and Daily...

Once you get the picture of Monthly formation, weekly and daily will start guiding one towards better Decision making.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #706,760
  • Nov 13, 2022 3:03am Nov 13, 2022 3:03am
Quoting Georginson
{quote} You are absolutely spot on Bilal and I must admit that your scalping skills have been top notch which is due to your reactionary methodologies instead of anticipatory approach. Finding a balance between Technical and Fundamental analysis is very important but technical shows the whole picture of what fundamentals is doing, in summary trade what you see is the main mantra. Higher time frames and distance application works like wild fire regardless of what fundamentals is saying, no price ever goes in a straight line... Major clue, the price...

any thoughts on how the election result update might affect the pair?
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