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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #706,721
  • Nov 12, 2022 12:20am Nov 12, 2022 12:20am
Quoting bilal1947
Thanks Wavegarrick for the valuable suggestion to use one entry at a time, it is easier on the heart and no need to show many pips, it doesnt matter. Summary of what i did yesterday on M1, thinking can i upscale it on H4 ? any suggestions, comments including negative having +ve spirits are welcome. {image}
Hi Bilal,
I normally keep myself busy with other things during the day, but yesterday you had me watching in awe at your scalp trading. You caught every little swing yesterday. Simply top notch.
If you can handle 1 minute swings like that I cannot see the 4hr t/frame being a problem for you. Trades could last from a couple of days to a week or longer and I would still stick to scalping which is something you're good at.
Cheers.
Trade to trade another day
  • #706,722
  • Nov 12, 2022 2:08am Nov 12, 2022 2:08am
Hello guys, this concluded week produced mind blowing bull run with little lower shadows at both ends...

Let's do a quick stat
✓Apart from September 2022 range of 1380 pips, only April 2022 range of 750 pips and October 2022 range of 720 pips have produced more range than this Current month (November 2022) range being 708 pips so far...

Next resistance on daily is at 1.1878 (August 23) and 1.1900 (August 26)

Since September 26 low of 1.0353 to 1.1854 price has bounced off by 1501 pips which is very similar to September 2019 bounce from 1.1958 to December 2019 high of 1.3514 (1557 pips)

Since 1.0923 low was recorded in October 12, price has been forming higher lows of 1.1060, 1,1146 and 1.1333, followed up with higher highs of 1.1439, 1.1645 and this current high of 1.1854...

Possible Scenarios for Next Week (14 - 19 November)
✓ Expected range is between 380 - 480 pips
✓ Should the Resistance of 1.1878 - 1.1900 hold, price will most likely attain 1.1500 before another aggressive surge in weeks ahead...

In Summary
Expect bearish slam down to 1.1500 area next week but safest bear target should be 1.1598...

Why 1.1598 is extremely realistic next week?

✓The most recent resistance before price attacked this current high of 1.1854 was 1.1598, which price is expected to at least make such resistance become support before any bullish continuation for momentum gathering...

✓ Since Minimum expected Range for Next week is 380 pips, you can easily add 380 pips to 1.1598 which means high of 1.1982... should 1.1982 occur, it will mean monthly range will have attained 836 pips which is quite unlikely considering the fact that only this recent September have produced more in the last 32 months...

Hence I will sell from 1.1835/1.1850 area for a target of 1.1598 next week.

A research excerpt with no obligation to follow...

Cheers,
George.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #706,723
  • Nov 12, 2022 3:55am Nov 12, 2022 3:55am
Update from Bella's Trend Cycles : 12.11.2022

GBP/USD – 1.18285..... Cable's rally above key resistance of 1.18151 suggests the Bull Cycle that started on 04.11.2022 ( analysis updated on 12.11.2022 ) is intact and signals extended gains to 1.19800 - 1.21045 in upcoming week. There is a good possibility of Short term high to be placed by 16.11.2022-18.11.2022 which would bring weakness down to 1.16xx lvl.

There is no limit orders or price levels to buy or sell at this point in time will handle it as in running market conditions ( normal business ).

-Bella's Trend Cycles.
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Goddess of Thunder..
  • #706,724
  • Nov 12, 2022 4:57am Nov 12, 2022 4:57am
No words can replace this art!

Thanks Banksy for making my day.
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  • #706,725
  • Nov 12, 2022 5:11am Nov 12, 2022 5:11am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Hi Bilal, I normally keep myself busy with other things during the day, but yesterday you had me watching in awe at your scalp trading. You caught every little swing yesterday. Simply top notch. If you can handle 1 minute swings like that I cannot see the 4hr t/frame being a problem for you. Trades could last from a couple of days to a week or longer and I would still stick to scalping which is something you're good at. Cheers.
Thank you for your time and the kind motivating words from a senior makes my day

Yes scalping is i am more comfortable at thr moment but thinking to scale up on H4 as you said may run longer and i may spend less screen time perhaps.

Will give it a try.
Thank you

Best regards
bilal
"Exchange of hands"
  • #706,726
  • Nov 12, 2022 5:35am Nov 12, 2022 5:35am
UK GDP Q3 - 0.4, bank holiday for Queens funeral what made change. UK will enter recession.
Have you noticed how USA prolonged bad data for several months? Now was the time to releace CPI, etc after election..
Markets are controlled, there is no other way to understand it.

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https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/
  • #706,727
  • Nov 12, 2022 6:22am Nov 12, 2022 6:22am
Quoting BeeTogether
{quote} hopefully watch the footie tomorrow and sons (delayed) birthday shenanigans on Sunday with his school friends how about you?
Oh, how nice, lots of fun, same me only next Sunday, climbing party this time, daughter turns 11.
  • #706,728
  • Nov 12, 2022 6:30am Nov 12, 2022 6:30am
Quoting Jolita
UK GDP Q3 - 0.4, bank holiday for Queens funeral what made change. UK will enter recession. Have you noticed how USA prolonged bad data for several months? Now was the time to releace CPI, etc after election.. Markets are controlled, there is no other way to understand it. {image}https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...fings/sn02784/
Wait for government proposals to rejuvenate the economic besides too depend on monetary policy...all facing same problem..hyperinflation
Let Market Tell You
  • #706,729
  • Nov 12, 2022 6:34am Nov 12, 2022 6:34am
Who is agree with me ?
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  • #706,730
  • Edited 7:37am Nov 12, 2022 6:38am | Edited 7:37am
Quoting bilal1947
Thanks Wavegarrick for the valuable suggestion to use one entry at a time, it is easier on the heart and no need to show many pips, it doesnt matter. Summary of what i did yesterday on M1, thinking can i upscale it on H4 ? any suggestions, comments including negative having +ve spirits are welcome. {image}
Hi Bilal1947! First off, amazing scalping indeed!!!!! Regarding your call for comments, etc. What is the strategy precisely ? The more info about it the better we could help. For a transfer, the changes that are needed as well as the degree of difficulty varies greatly from strategy to strategy, and it is not always possible. Without the workings of the strategy in question, it is harder to explore the question.

Anyway, I find it very interesting. Will definitely look out for replies and for your future explorations on it all. If I can help in any way, as more information about the strategy is unveiled, I wont hesitate. I do have experience on the matter , as unlikely as that sounds Cheers mate !
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #706,731
  • Nov 12, 2022 7:13am Nov 12, 2022 7:13am
Quoting Jolita
UK GDP Q3 - 0.4, bank holiday for Queens funeral what made change. UK will enter recession. Have you noticed how USA prolonged bad data for several months? Now was the time to releace CPI, etc after election.. Markets are controlled, there is no other way to understand it. {image}https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...fings/sn02784/
Now this is less a reply than a Saturday rambling on what you are making me think of aside from what you wrote, so apologies for that Its the weekend after all, and I am already a clown during the week !

Ok, I have no clue, but a little bird sang to me that the US economy is so far worst than all the other main economies. .. the ticking timebomb that the US gvt is ignoring(economists keep telling them of the urgency of acting, but they keep ignoring...). The debt, fiscal-gap, etc. is apparently a much dirtier time bomb than it seems. And I admit that I am an idiot regarding it all, but a friend of mine loves to laugh at my ignorance all the while warning me of the impending doom.

Also, perhaps, sometimes news time is just a "time" for reactions that were actually a long time in the works. Perhaps, sometimes, not as much as a reaction to the numbers, but a catalyzer in time for a movement that was bound to happen. MMmmm I think I failed trying to explain myself again, back to my 0s and 1s !


P.S that could be one of the reasons why a lot of technical strats get even better results when adding cycle analysis to is !
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #706,732
  • Nov 12, 2022 7:13am Nov 12, 2022 7:13am
Quoting bilal1947
Thanks Wavegarrick for the valuable suggestion to use one entry at a time, it is easier on the heart and no need to show many pips, it doesnt matter. Summary of what i did yesterday on M1, thinking can i upscale it on H4 ? any suggestions, comments including negative having +ve spirits are welcome. {image}
Usually I do only long (1min/5min) under 1H timeframe uptrend, will bring more win rates
  • #706,733
  • Nov 12, 2022 7:29am Nov 12, 2022 7:29am
blah, blah, blah.
repeatedly and always.
  • #706,734
  • Edited 8:00am Nov 12, 2022 7:39am | Edited 8:00am
Quoting anjela
Who is agree with me ? {image} {image}
No one knows, depending on how US will react, Friday US market was closed. Buy lower set ups might be made by market makers.

Atm GU is bullish.
Khersov victory positive for GU
US first inflation signs positive for GU
China easing Covid bubble also positive for GU
Ressesion in UK, negative, but could be already priced in.
Putin might throw out unexpected for a revange, negative for GU.

We will have new data release next week, which might have temporary effect.
  • #706,735
  • Edited 8:05am Nov 12, 2022 7:41am | Edited 8:05am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} Thanks for your reply . You have an in depth analyst as always I read your posts and like George who has in depth look into price movements. So I respect your educational view that you both bring to this thread . You ar apart of the good traders here .. You never engage in chit chat as I .. and you keep it as business . The thing I don’t see is your preferred at the time trade . I would like to read where you are in the market if you could do that as it would make it a bit easier to read into where you are within your educational .posts...
Hi E. Thanks for your comments. Re your suggestion that I post when I am in a trade. Well, unless this is done at or about the time of entry (say withinn 5pips) it's just a retrospective and 'late call' which is understandably not liked on this thread, as we have seen. I do post retrospective set-ups as you have seen but these are only where there is educational value to them. I may have traded these, bottled out, or have missed them in real-time, it doesn't matter - they happened/developed. I am a scalper so most of my winning trades are in the +5 -to- +20 range, this is my bread and butter. Yes I have some bigger scores and do let some trades run, but I would say that most of my trades (60%+) are from a 1min, 3min, or 5min trigger, and are in that range. As has been discussed before on this thread, for scalp-type trades calls, a threaded forum is not an efficient medium, particularly when the browser has to be refreshed to get the latest post. Also, as I have said before, I don't run a signals service, and don't want to, but if I did, I would charge money for them lol! And why not? My primary interest is about making money from my own trading - that is it. Whilst I am happy at the moment to contribute certain things here, I view all other traders as my competitors.

Re contributing, I do so by sharing elements of my trading edge, (not all, as in the exact set-ups and all studies I use for entry that make up my trading edge, as these are intellectual property owned by my trading business, and as such have intrinsic value.) The elements I do share may help others in either improving their own edges, or indeed in developing an edge. I share;

a. Potential support & Resistance factors on significant t/f's and where a confluence of these exists.
b. Chart conditions across the t/f's - ie whether a chart is ranging or trending.
c. Price action commentary across the t/f's, and how the t/f's relate to each other.
d. Momentum oscillator overbought/oversold and divergence techniques and set-up examples.
e. Info about deviation both from bol bands (as a measure of volatility) across the t/f's, or indeed relative to adr, awr, and amr.
f. Fundamental analysis and commentary.

In sharing this (a-e,) I do so not just from observational/anecdotal evidence but from muti-year, multi-time frame documented empirical evidence on this gbpusd pairing. The commentary I give in my posts are not just unsubstantiated 'throw-away' comments. I am happy to be challenged about any of my posts.

It may help to clarify a bit more about my trading edge. it is based on probability - that is all. I have no powers of foresight or prediction. I don't even know what the next tick in price will be. I determine chart conditions and potential supp/res/sbr/rbs on relevant t/f's of interest that I use in trading my edge, and then sometimes, per my set-ups - if they develop where I am happy to trade from, (re the analysis I have just described,) I am able to tell what the probability is of something happening over something else, but this is not to say it always does. This as stated above is based on very large sample (s) historical documented multi-year and multi-time frame empirical evidence of this to that point in time. My trade entry set-ups, as my signature (at bottom of every post suggests) are essentially @ pre-identified potential supp/res/sbr/rbs that when the price reaches such, suggest that there is either a better chance of a break out of it, or a bounce from it. PA and osc o/b / o/s / divergence across the t/f's are a good part of the repeating set-ups I look for to determine this.

I cut my losers very quickly, and my risk/money management is optimized to the key stats obtained from my trading of the edge. I try to hold trades open if successively higher t/f PA from that of the trigger t/f is supportive of the trade. So if my trigger for entry is a 1min set-up I look @ 3min then 5min, then 15min etc to see if the PA is supportive. These 2 things ensure that I achieve a good R:R and a positive expectancy across any given trade sample size.

Hope this helps.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #706,736
  • Nov 12, 2022 7:45am Nov 12, 2022 7:45am
Quoting anjela
Who is agree with me ? {image} {image}
Why not? power is sure there! But I rarely find that one can rely on only that.

In this particular case, in my view, it is also worth zooming out a bit to see what happened at these levels earlier this year, and factor in the significant past hurdles present.

Zooming out to Monthly is interesting but of less importance in terms of trading as we lack data on that scale(Just for me ! as I'm a data guy, no offense to anti-history traders!).
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If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #706,737
  • Nov 12, 2022 7:48am Nov 12, 2022 7:48am
Quoting mtako
{quote}Now this is less a reply than a Saturday rambling on what you are making me think of aside from what you wrote, so apologies for that Its the weekend after all, and I am already a clown during the week ! Ok, I have no clue, but a little bird sang to me that the US economy is so far worst than all the other main economies. .. the ticking timebomb that the US gvt is ignoring(economists keep telling them of the urgency of acting, but they keep ignoring...). The debt, fiscal-gap,...

You right, lets enjoy Saturday!
  • #706,738
  • Nov 12, 2022 7:57am Nov 12, 2022 7:57am
Quoting anjela
Who is agree with me ? {image} {image}
Sorry miss read your chart, thought you refered to GU. Both look alike.
Daily EMA 200 1.995.
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  • #706,739
  • Nov 12, 2022 8:09am Nov 12, 2022 8:09am
Quoting Jolita
{quote} Sorry miss read your chart, thought you refered to GU. Both look alike. Daily EMA 200 1.995.{image}
I had a few minutes of hesitation to share my first 2 cents because it was EUsd, then remembered that this thread was not gbpusd ONLY. I'll have to get used to that !!!!

Adding to my previous reply : when volatility is through the roof like it is, I find that it is often better to use a bit more of a trailing stop than a reaching-out TP... Of course I always use a mixture of TPs, to keep things as diversified as possible, but generally a bit more trailing in this case....
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #706,740
  • Nov 12, 2022 9:17am Nov 12, 2022 9:17am
Quoting mtako
{quote} Hi Bilal1947! First off, amazing scalping indeed!!!!! Regarding your call for comments, etc. What is the strategy precisely ? The more info about it the better we could help. For a transfer, the changes that are needed as well as the degree of difficulty varies greatly from strategy to strategy, and it is not always possible. Without the workings of the strategy in question, it is harder to explore the question. Anyway, I find it very interesting. Will definitely look out for replies and for your future explorations on it all. If I can help...
Hi Mtako

Thank you for the reply, the strategy is the same which we discuss recently in this post.
Ref: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post14220189

Moreover after thinking much on the subject where i reach so far is that, snice market is fractal, time frame becomes irrelevant because it will be doing same things in HTF as well.

But things i have to learn would be to handle bigger stop losses and accordingly the relevant risk management to get the longer runs, but then again, HTF also follows fundamentals so perhaps i have to work more on that part too and definitely some missing pieces will be there.

Being the inherent limitation in any system, we must control the risk elements to get the minimum damage while doing What if analysis before moving to a new method.

best regards
bilal
"Exchange of hands"
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